Austrian Elections & Politics 2.0 (Presidential runoff re-vote: 4 Dec. 2016)

[Tender Branson]

First poll in a month (Gallup, conducted Dec. 15-17):

Federal Elections

33% FPÖ (+12.5)
23% SPÖ (-4.0)
21% ÖVP (-3.0)
12% Greens (-0.5)
  8% NEOS (+3.0)
  3% Others (-8.0)

2016 President

31% Irmgard Griss (Indy)
29% Alexander Van der Bellen (Greens)
19% Erwin Pröll (ÖVP)
12% Rudolf Hundstorfer (SPÖ)
  9% Josef Moser (FPÖ)

"Are you for a general upper limit/cap on how many asylum seekers/migrants can enter Austria ?"

69% Yes
22% No

http://www.oe24.at/oesterreich/politik/Koalition-schwaechelt-FPOe-meilenweit-vorn/216486360

[Tender Branson]

what elections are in 2016, again?

The Presidential elections in April (see my posts above) and the Tyrol municipal elections (which nobody really cares about, I guess not even Cranberry - who lives there - because the ÖVP and affiliated lists will win anyway).

[Tender Branson]

Austrians remain strongly opposed to Turkish EU-membership, according to a new OGM poll:

12% in favour
81% opposed

http://www.ogm.at/2015/12/bevoelkerung-gegen-eu-beitritt-der-tuerkei

Also, Austrians think that worries about climate change and its effects are justified:

66% justified
32% concerns are overblown

http://www.ogm.at/2015/12/skepsis-gegenueber-folgen-des-klimawandels-steigt

[Tender Branson]

Turns out our Islamic kindergartens are turning into breeding grounds for religious fundamentalism and extremism, because they are basically running under a Salafist-financed parallel structure to state kindergartens.

New Profil poll on this issue:

"Do you favour or oppose stricter controls/oversight of Muslim kindergartens in Austria ?"

62% Favour
33% Oppose

"Do you agree or disagree with this statement: 'Religion has no place in kindergartens.' ?"

51% Agree
48% Disagree

http://www.profil.at/oesterreich/umfrage-kontrollen-kindergaerten-6161338

[Tender Branson]

Apparently, the ÖVP has now settled on Erwin Pröll (Governor of Lower Austria) as their Presidential candidate and he has agreed.

Within the SPÖ, there's still some debate about their candidate: Minister for Labour and Consumer Protection Issues Rudolf Hundstorfer (who was until recently seen as the most likely candidate) is now thinking about not running and also the SPÖ itself has concerns that the rising/high unemployment numbers, as well as Chancellor Faymann's constant governing in favour of illegals and migrants rather than the Austrian population, will hurt his chances.

The SPÖ might then ask former Austrian Chancellor Franz Vranitzky to run as President as an alternative option.

http://derstandard.at/2000027801899/Bundespraesidentschaft-Parteien-stellen-Kandidaten-in-naechsten-Tagen-vor

[Tender Branson]

The recent polling is incredibly erratic for Austrian standards (where party #s usually don't change by more than 1-2% each month).

With 2 more polls out today, the FPÖ is ranging as low as 27% (IMAS), but also as high as 33% (Gallup). The Profil poll has them at 31%.

Also, the ÖVP is somewhere between 21-25% and the SPÖ between 22-26%. NEOS is also bouncing around between 5% and 8% ...

The Greens have almost no movement: 12-13%

http://www.krone.at/Oesterreich/FPOe-Chef_Strache_bleibt_weiter_im_Umfrage-Hoch-Wegen_Fluechtlingen-Story-487756

http://www.profil.at/oesterreich/umfrage-oevp-spoe-fpoe-6161464

Averages of all 3 polls:

30.3% FPÖ
23.7% SPÖ
23.3% ÖVP
12.7% Greens
  7.0% NEOS
  3.0% Others

[Tender Branson]

There's a mayoral by-election in Hohenems (Vorarlberg) on Dec. 20, which the FPÖ-candidate might win (according to a recent VN poll which showed a 6-point lead for Egger).

But now the SPÖ and Greens came out to endorse the ÖVP candidate, to prevent an FPÖ victory. Elections during Christmas are totally uncommon, which means turnout will be low (~60%). In the recent election there, the ÖVP candidate beat Egger by just 2% (51-49). So, everything is possible this time (pretty similar situation like in the French regional elections).

Guess who won ...

55.8% Egger (FPÖ)
44.2% Amann (ÖVP)

Turnout wasn't all too bad after all: 62%

Link to results.

This result is of importance because Egger is also the Vorarlberg state party leader of the FPÖ (he will step down from that office to serve as mayor. A new state party leader will be elected next year).

And because Egger (while campaigning for the 2009 state election) called the director of the Jewish Museum of Hohenems (Hohenems has a longstanding Jewish tradition) an "Exile-Jew from America". Egger has only apologized for this statement 6 years later (this spring).

[Tender Branson]

M&R has recently polled 1.000 Austrians about 2nd (!) round presidential preferences and they have Lower Austria governor Pröll (ÖVP) ahead in every matchup. It should be noted that M&R is an internal ÖVP-pollster, so take it with some salt:

[Tender Branson]

MP Jessy Lintl (ex-Team Stronach, then Indy) joined the FPÖ club in parliament today.

The new seat allocation now:

52 SPÖ
51 ÖVP
38 FPÖ
24 Greens
  9 NEOS
  6 TS
  3 Indy (all ex-FPÖ, but were kicked out of the party)

https://www.parlament.gv.at/WWER/NR/SITZPLANNR/index.shtml

With the kicked-out FPÖ-MPs, ÖVP-FPÖ would actually have a majority in parliament now (92-91) after all the recent party switching - but of course nothing like that will happen.

[Tender Branson]

https://www.parlament.gv.at/WWER/NR/SITZPLANNR/index.shtml

I wonder why FPO: sits to the left compared to O:VP?

No special reason I guess.

[Tender Branson]

Freda Meissner-Blau, pioneer & founding mother of the Austrian ecologic movement and Green Party and leading activist for Green causes such as successful protests against the Zwentendorf nuclear power plant and Hainburg has died. She was 88 years old.



https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Freda_Meissner-Blau

RIP.

[Tender Branson]

New chart showing how many asylum seekers are currently getting welfare, by state (and how many cities in each state have already agreed to take/house asylum seekers):



The state of Tyrol is extremely lazy in taking up asylum seekers, mostly because municipal elections will take place next February and the mayors don't want to "burden" the electorate ...

(The city where I live, Zell am See, has taken 200 asylum seekers so far (2%), which is more than the 1.5% quota of the population that was set by the Interior Ministry.)

http://kurier.at/chronik/oesterreich/fluechtlinge-832-gemeinden-ohne-asylwerber/171.656.877

[Tender Branson]

First Upper Austria election poll after the Sept. state election (by IMAS):

34% ÖVP (-2.5)
32% FPÖ (+1.5)
17% SPÖ (-1.5)
13% Greens (+2.5)
  4% NEOS (+0.5)

n=1000

http://ooe.orf.at/news/stories/2749556

[Tender Branson]

A new Tyrol state election poll (GMK for the Bezirksblätter) shows a massive FPÖ-surge.

This is interesting, because the FPÖ polled quite low in the recent years there - but Tyrol was actually a pretty strong FPÖ-state back in the 1990s during Haider.



http://www.meinbezirk.at/land-tirol/politik/bezirksblaetter-umfrage-tirol-rueckt-nach-rechts-d1589308.html

A new TT poll, also for Tyrol, by Research Affairs (never heard of them) shows a totally different picture though:



http://www.tt.com/politik/landespolitik/10917464-91/tt-umfrage-blau-f%C3%A4hrt-auf-der-%C3%BCberholspur.csp

Both polls were done roughly over the same timespan, but GMK is usally a very good pollster - so I would rate their results slightly better than the TT poll.

[Tender Branson]

  It would be hilarious of the SPO got so weak in the Tyrol that it was in danger of not winning any seats in the Landtag.  Still a way to go for that I realize.

Yeah, not happening anytime soon - but the Vorarlberg SPÖ will beat the Tyrol SPÖ if it ever happens.

[Tender Branson]

Norbert Hofer (FPÖ & 3rd President of the Austrian Parliament) has ruled out running for Austrian President in the April election, saying he "feels too young for that office" (=> he's 44).

http://derstandard.at/2000028203849/FPOe-Hofer-fuehlt-sich-fuer-Hofburg-zu-jung

That means the FPÖ will likely go with the President of the Austrian Court of Audit, Josef Moser, as their candidate. Moser's term as Audit Court President is ending in the summer, which is also when the new Austrian President would be sworn in, so that would fit into the FPÖ's & Moser's plans (in the very unlikely event that he wins the election ... ).

http://www.rechnungshof.gv.at/en/aca/president/dr-josef-moser.html

[Tender Branson]

It's no secret that the FPÖ wants to abolish the office of Austrian President, so FPÖ-leader Strache renewed a decade-old FPÖ-plan yesterday to merge the office of President with the Austrian Chancellor, who would then be directly elected by the voters when they are voting in the parliamentary elections.

Because most FPÖ-voters also want to abolish the President, it's already clear that the FPÖ-candidate for President in April (if there is one) will not go far (no higher than 20%) - because many FPÖ-voters will simply stay home.

http://derstandard.at/2000028260506/Strache-will-Kanzler-und-Bundespraesident-fusionieren

[Tender Branson]

Would the new position be called the Führer?

Dunno. It would be better to just write an email to the FPÖ headquarters and ask them ...

[Tender Branson]

He'd do that, but as he doesn't want to appear on an MI5 watchlist he'd rather you'd ask for him.

So you think it's better if I do it and end up on the Austrian Interior Ministry's watchlist for asking stuff about the Führer ?

[Tender Branson]

In roughly 2.5 hours, Austria will become one of the few countries on the planet where gay couples will have full adoption rights, but no full marriage rights (only civil unions).

(The Constitutional Court ruled earlier this year that gay couples must have universal adoption rights equal to hetero couples and this has to take effect on Jan 1, 2016).

[Tender Branson]

The April Presidential Election now also has a Wiki page:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Austrian_presidential_election,_2016

[Tender Branson]

The ÖVP will debate/decide on Sunday & Monday about their presidential candidate (and that will likely be Lower Austria Governor Erwin Pröll).

[Tender Branson]

Question. So there are people who want to abolish the presidency. Who, according to them, should then be the Head of State? The Prime Minister?

The SUPERCHANCELLOR:

It's no secret that the FPÖ wants to abolish the office of Austrian President, so FPÖ-leader Strache renewed a decade-old FPÖ-plan yesterday to merge the office of President with the Austrian Chancellor, who would then be directly elected by the voters when they are voting in the parliamentary elections.

Because most FPÖ-voters also want to abolish the President, it's already clear that the FPÖ-candidate for President in April (if there is one) will not go far (no higher than 20%) - because many FPÖ-voters will simply stay home.

http://derstandard.at/2000028260506/Strache-will-Kanzler-und-Bundespraesident-fusionieren

[Tender Branson]

Ah sorry, hadn't seen that. Interesting proposal. If this directly elected "superchancellor" would have to be the head of the government as well, it would effectively become much harder for the FPÖ to ever lead a government. Not such a smart idea from an electoral perspective.

Not really. Don't forget that if parliamentary elections are held together with Presidential elections, it would drive up turnout to 85% or something - increasing FPÖ turnout. I guess the FPÖ's proposal means that the SuperChancellor is elected only with a simply majority without a runoff. If there's no runoff, Strache as leading candidate for SC would do extremely well - he could easily win against Faymann or Mitterlehner (just look at the polls). Of course, if there's a runoff he'd end up like the LePens in Round 2 of the regionals recently ...

[Tender Branson]

The Salzburg Team Stronach has now fully disintegrated.

Today, another state MP for the party has joined the ÖVP parliamentary club.

Of the 3 state MPs and 1 government member from the TS, 3 have now joined the ÖVP club - while the remaining one has said today he'll work together with the remaining FPÖ-MP (remember that the FPÖ also split last summer and only has 1 MP remaining in the state, while the others have all joined the FPS splinter party).

http://salzburg.orf.at/news/stories/2751120