French regional election - December 6 and 13, 2015

[Tender Branson]

Pease correct me if I'm wrong, but France now only has 13 regions left due to some reform and the FN is projected to win 2 of them and leading in 2-3 others ?

[Tender Branson]

Any links to official results ?

After 8pm I guess.

I have no links though.

But turnout was 16.3% at noon (up from 16.1% in 2010), but down from 18.5% in 2004.

[Tender Branson]

Turnout at 5pm is now somewhere between the 2004 and 2010 one:

43.0% (2010: 39.3%, 2004: 49.7%)

Final turnout should therefore come in at around 50-55%.

[Tender Branson]

turnout better in the régions (Nord, Paca, LRMP) where FN can win.

But does higher turnout help them really ?

If France is like Austria, higher turnout helps the FPÖ/FN - but not to the extent that they are winning anything. The FN might certainly get a good result and double/triple their %s in some regions, but eventually end up not winning any region in the 2nd round.

[Tender Branson]

Turnout is up significantly at 12:00 compared with Round 1.

20% vs. 16% (and besides Corsica, it's highest so far in the 2 Le Pen contested seats).

[Tender Branson]

Turnout is up 7% so far compared with Round 1.

Final turnout could reach 57-60%.

By regions:

Corse : 60,33 %
Nord-Pas-de-Calais-Picardie : 54,36 %
Provence-Alpes-Côte d'Azur : 54,27 %
Languedoc-Roussillon-Midi-Pyrénées : 54,06 %
Normandie : 53,23 %
Bourgogne-Franche-Comté : 52,79 %
Alsace-Champagne-Ardenne-Lorraine : 52,69 %
Centre-Val de Loire : 52,43 %
Aquitaine-Limousin-Poitou-Charentes : 51,21 %
Auvergne-Rhône-Alpes : 50,43 %
Bretagne : 48,81 %
Pays de la Loire : 48,67 %
Ile-de-France : 41,83%

France: 50,54%

[Tender Branson]

Maps (incl. change compared with Round 1):

[Tender Branson]

My predictions for the LOLZ:

Nord-Pas-de-Calais-Picardie

50.9% Bertrand (UdlD) [X] elected
49.1% LePen, Marine (FN)

Provence-Alpes-Côte d'Azur

50.6% LePen, Marion (FN) [X] elected + pickup
49.4% Estrosi (UdlD)

Alsace-Champagne-Ardenne-Lorraine

44.1% Philippot (FN) [X] elected + pickup
43.6% Richert (UdlD)
12.3% Masseret (DG)

...

All other regions remain like they were in Round 1.

[Tender Branson]

My predictions for the LOLZ:

Nord-Pas-de-Calais-Picardie

50.9% Bertrand (UdlD) [X] elected
49.1% LePen, Marine (FN)

Provence-Alpes-Côte d'Azur

50.6% LePen, Marion (FN) [X] elected + pickup
49.4% Estrosi (UdlD)

Alsace-Champagne-Ardenne-Lorraine

44.1% Philippot (FN) [X] elected + pickup
43.6% Richert (UdlD)
12.3% Masseret (DG)

...

All other regions remain like they were in Round 1.

Bertrand would also do a pickup.

Ah yeah, thx ...

I somehow thought he already was some regional leader before the regional mergers ...

[Tender Branson]

Marine would lose 42-58 by bertrand, bigger than predicted.

Looks like most left-wingers voted for the Right-winger then, instead of staying home.

If true, it would also bury her Presidential plans - because this result would be a preview for a 2nd Presidential round and if she cannot get near a majority in her stronghold, she would have no chance in a Presidential runoff either ...

[Tender Branson]

I hope that those predictions/leaks/exit polls will be true.

Leaks is more likely.

I guess there are no exit polls yet, because the polls are still open for another hour.

[Tender Branson]

Rest in hell panzertrash!!

Getting 40-45% in several 5 Mio+ regions is still a strong result though ... and it's much better than the FPÖ's results for example in the recent Upper Austria and Vienna state elections (except some parts like the Innviertel or Vienna-North or South - which had similarly high results).

The new map today will be quite FNish in the East and South.

[Tender Branson]

To sum it up:

Of the 13 regions, the Right is on track to win 5, the Left is winning 3.

4 regions are currently a total tossup (between the Left and the Right) and Corse was won by a Nationalist (non-FN).

[Tender Branson]

France-wide result with 66% of the vote counted:

38.9% Right
30.2% FN
27.7% Left
  2.9% Other Left
  0.2% Regional Lists

Turnout: 60%

http://elections.interieur.gouv.fr/regionales-2015/FE.html

[Tender Branson]

PACA (46% counted):

51.2% Christian ESTROSI
48.8% Marion MARÉCHAL-LE PEN

[Tender Branson]

Nord-Pas-de-Calais-Picardie (66% counted):

55.2% Xavier BERTRAND
44.8% Marine LE PEN

[Tender Branson]

Bourgogne - Franche-Comté (91% counted):

34.1% Marie-Guite DUFAY (Left)
33.3% Sophie MONTEL (FN)
32.6% François SAUVADET (Right)

[Tender Branson]

Centre-Val de Loire (86% counted):

34.5% Philippe VIGIER (Right)
34.2% François BONNEAU (Left)
31.3% Philippe LOISEAU (FN)

[Tender Branson]

Normandie (95% counted):

36.6% Hervé MORIN (Right)
35.6% Nicolas MAYER-ROSSIGNOL (Left)
27.8% Nicolas BAY (FN)

[Tender Branson]

PACA (52% counted):

51.2% Christian ESTROSI (Right)
48.8% Marion MARÉCHAL-LE PEN (FN)

Much closer than the 55-45 exit polls so far, but Le Pen clearly won't win.

[Tender Branson]

Contrary to other regions where the FN loses as more votes are counted, the young/hot LePen seems to climb higher as more votes are counted - now close to breaking 49%.

[Tender Branson]

The national vote meanwhile is moving closer to:

40% Right (+13%)
30% Left (incl. other left lists) (+5%)
30% FN (+2%)

... with 75% of the votes counted.

[Tender Branson]

Pretty interesting that the Socialists will win about half of the regions, while the combined French Right (Republicans+FN) got 70% of the national vote ...