How Austrians would have voted in previous Presidential elections (user search)
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  How Austrians would have voted in previous Presidential elections (search mode)
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Author Topic: How Austrians would have voted in previous Presidential elections  (Read 1849 times)
Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,197
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84

« on: April 28, 2015, 02:17:46 AM »

2012:

27 October - Karmasin Motivforschung/Profil poll: 86% Obama, 4% Romney, 10% undecided

8 September - Karmasin Motivforschung/Profil poll: 80% Obama, 5% Romney, 15% undecided

2008:

30 October - OGM/Format poll: 75% Obama, 7% McCain, 18% undecided

2004:

27 October - NEWS poll: 72% Kerry, 7% Bush, 21% undecided

Who do you think will win ?

48% Kerry
43% Bush

2000:

no poll found
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,197
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84

« Reply #1 on: April 28, 2015, 04:31:57 AM »

are you referring to Austrians as Mises or Austrians as people living in Austria?

Voting-age Austrian citizens here in Austria.
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,197
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84

« Reply #2 on: April 28, 2015, 01:15:18 PM »

If Austria were somehow actually a state in the U.S., there's no way Obama would be winning with 80%+. I mean really, how many FPO voters would vote for Obama? He would probably win fairly comfortably, don't get me wrong, but the margins found in these polls only make sense if Austria is a foreign country.

Yes, that's correct.

I'm actually not even sure if Austria would be a Democratic state if it were a US state, because in Austrian federal elections the Center-Right/Far-Right parties have a combined 55-60%. I could see it as a version of CO in the 1990s and early 2000s before the state transformed into a lean-DEM state.

I imagine that Bush would have done better in 2000 than in 2004.

Quite possible, because the Iraq War shaped not only Austrian views on Bush/Republicans, but moved the opinion in all Western European countries strongly towards the Democrats. I think Bush could have cracked 20% in a 2000 poll here ...

How many EV would Austria have? 14?

I imagine that Bush would have done better in 2000 than in 2004.

Definitely. Bush has destroyed the reputation of the GOP in Europe.

Probably 13 EV, because there would be 51 states (unless the total number of EV is raised too, in that case it would have 14 EV - like New Jersey).
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