Irish Elections and Referendums, 2015

[Tender Branson]

Nice.

Looks like 2/3 YES when all is counted, right ?

[Tender Branson]

Despite the big win in Ireland, gay-marriage is still overpolling:

In the last few polls before the referendum (excl. "undecided"), about 70-73% said they'll vote YES.

On election day, only 62% did.

This continues the trend seen in referendums in Slovenia, Croatia and Slovakia.

That's not good news for possible future referendums on this issue in other countries where the polls could show a close race and then voters end up rejecting gay marriage.

[Tender Branson]

Despite the big win in Ireland, gay-marriage is still overpolling:

In the last few polls before the referendum (excl. "undecided"), about 70-73% said they'll vote YES.

On election day, only 62% did.

This continues the trend seen in referendums in Slovenia, Croatia and Slovakia.

That's not good news for possible future referendums on this issue in other countries where the polls could show a close race and then voters end up rejecting gay marriage.

Undecided voters are likely to swing back to the Status Quo on the day.

How many undecided voters were there in the polls?

Between 6-23%.