Austrian Single Member Parliamentary Districts

[Tender Branson]

Great stuff !



I'm already interested in how you slice the Pinzgau (where I live) into 2 districts and which city goes to which district.

[Tender Branson]

My 2-district proposal for the Pinzgau:



Pinzgau-North has 32.352 registered voters (2013 federal election numbers).

Pinzgau-South has 31.712 registered voters.

Zell am See (the capital, coloured green on the map) is part of the Northern district.

The 2013 federal election result for each district was:

NORTH:

26.5% ÖVP, 26.4% SPÖ, 23.8% FPÖ, 10.4% Greens, 5.3% TS, 3.8% NEOS, 3.0% BZÖ, 0.8% Others

SOUTH:

27.9% SPÖ, 27.5% ÖVP, 24.5% FPÖ, 7.8% Greens, 6.2% TS, 2.8% NEOS, 2.6% BZÖ, 0.7% Others

---

These are the election results without postal votes (postal votes are sent to the district election commission and they are assigned only to the district result, but NOT to the town/city results).

The postal ballots for the whole district of Pinzgau split down as:

28.5% ÖVP, 25.8% SPÖ, 16.9% Greens, 15.2% FPÖ, 5.9% TS, 4.1% NEOS, 2.2% BZÖ, 1.4% Others

---

But they account for only 11% of all ballots cast, so the rough estimate for each district (adjusted for postal ballots) is:

NORTH:

27% ÖVP, 26% SPÖ, 22% FPÖ, 12% Greens, 5% TS, 4% NEOS, 3% BZÖ, 1% Others

SOUTH:

28% ÖVP, 27% SPÖ, 23% FPÖ, 9% Greens, 6% TS, 3% NEOS, 3% BZÖ, 1% Others

[Tender Branson]

Salzburg, wo die Gämsen "Internationale" singen.
Salzburg, wo die Murmeltiere Marx lesen.

Some translation:

"Salzburg, where the chamois are singing The Internationale".

"Salzburg, where the groundhogs are reading Marx".

...



...

Well, that was the case until 2 years ago when the state's investment scandal became known. Of course figures from both the SPÖ and the ÖVP (then the government) were involved in the scandal, but the voters punished the senior coalition partner SPÖ more than the ÖVP in the 2013 state election (The SPÖ lost 15% and the ÖVP lost 7%).

The SPÖ at 45% in Salzburg (2004) will probably never be achieved again.

[Tender Branson]

Anything that mentions FPTP gets my interest, but one small question. NEOS only have nine seats in the Austrian Parliament (out of 183) and the next elections are not due until 2017. There's no chance of this idea actually getting of the ground is there?

Late 2018 (5-year term).



Anyway, I don't see this happening. Despite the fact that SPÖ and ÖVP would probably benefit from a FPTP system, it's more or less consensus to keep the PR-system as it is. If anything, they could at some point reform it to make it more like Germany's system, which uses a mix of FPTP and PR. But for this, they would have to pass it with a 2/3 majority, which SPÖVP+NEOS+TS don't have. (TS also favours a FPTP-system). These 4 parties have 65% of the seats in parliament, FPÖ+Greens (which are both opposed to a FPTP-system) have 35% of the seats.

[Tender Branson]

Reply to "Tender Branson": "that SPÖ and ÖVP would probably benefit from a  FPTP-system": Doubtful in the case of ÖVP (~20%, FPÖ ~30%).

I think that actual ÖVP-candidates running for a seat would be A) stronger than the ÖVP's poll standing right now and B) stronger than the FPÖ candidate, mostly because ÖVP candidates are more known locally than FPÖ-ones.

[Tender Branson]

No, surely not! ÖVP had to nominate mainly its experienced incumbents, who are as mediocre&unknown as their blue colleages. And FPÖ-MPs can get easily prominent in their constituency via provocation. (But as FPÖ was only in few areas strongest in 2013, ÖVP could survive first, before being squeezed.)

Au contraire !

Take a look at the Vorzugsstimmen (preference votes) in each electoral district and you will see that the SPÖ and ÖVP candidates get much more than the FPÖ candidates.

Don't underestimate the machines of SPÖ and ÖVP, via trade unions and ÖVP-Bünde.

http://www.bmi.gv.at/cms/BMI_wahlen/nationalrat/2013/files/Land_VZ_Broschuere_gesamt.pdf