EP elections 2014 - Predictions Thread

[Tender Branson]

With just 2 weeks and 3 days left until voting starts in the UK and the Netherlands, what do you think will happen ?

Which party will win in each of the 28 countries ? What will be the biggest surprises and biggest flops ? What about turnout ? And seat predictions ?

[Tender Branson]

I tried a map (winning party in terms of % in each country):



Grey = Too close to call (within 3%, mixed polls)
Red = PES
Blue = EPP
Wine Red = Left
Green = Greens
Orange = MELD/EFD
Purple = Non-Inscrits

Any errors ?

[Tender Branson]

Belgium, as N-VA was expelled from the Green group, if I remember well.

They are still listed with the Greens-EFA though:

http://www.greens-efa.eu/members/42-all-members/belgium-20.html

[Tender Branson]

They were not expelled from this term's group, just barred from joining next term's Green group.

Ah, thx. It seems I have missed that (because I'm not too familiar with politics in Belgium).

What is the reason that they are not allowed anymore to join the next Green caucus ?

[Tender Branson]

Austria: OVP and SPO pretty close like last time around so no change while FPO has declined slightly but you have NEOS who are more centrist as well as if they run candidates Team Stronach.  The BZO won't win anything but they were largely a Jorg Haider party so once he died that was the end of them.

* ÖVP and SPÖ were not close last time around: The ÖVP won with 30%, the SPÖ only got 24%.

* The FPÖ has not declined: The FPÖ got 13% in 2009, but is polling 19-21% right now.

* Team Stronach ? Not running in this election.

[Tender Branson]

My early prediction for AUT:

24.1% ÖVP (-5.9%)
23.6% SPÖ (-0.1%)
19.6% FPÖ (+6.9%)
12.3% NEOS (+12.3%)
12.1% Greens (+2.2%)
  3.8% EA (+3.8%)
  1.6% REKOS (+1.6%)
  1.5% EU-STOP (+1.5%)
  1.4% BZÖ (-3.2%)

Turnout: 44.3% (-1.7%)

...

With a result like this, Austria would be:

* 48.2% Right (ÖVP, FPÖ, REKOS, EU-STOP, BZÖ)
* 39.5% Left (SPÖ, Greens, EA)
* 12.3% Center (NEOS)

...

ÖVP and SPÖ win 5 seats, FPÖ 4, NEOS and Greens 2 seats each.

[Tender Branson]

My early Germany prediction:

36.1% CDU/CSU
25.9% SPD
10.2% Greens
  7.7% Left
  7.1% AfD
  3.3% FDP
  2.2% Pirates
  7.5% Others

Turnout: 44%

[Tender Branson]

Here's my prediction map (winning party in each country in % terms, not seats):



Some of them are just a wild guess.

Germany-blue: EPP
France-blue: EAF
UK-blue: EFD
Poland-blue: ECR
Red: PES
Wine-Red: Left
Yellow: ALDE
Orange: Non-Inscrits
Green: Nothing, unless you count the N-VA as "Green"

[Tender Branson]

I thought the PVV were leading the VVD in the Netherlands polls? Anyway, this 'heavy fire' that Farage is under won't hurt him one little bit - in fact, it might actually shore up UKIP support a little, since the big bad media elites (apart from the Mail, obviously) seem intent on clobbering him in the interests of furthering the sham LibLabCon cartel... obviously. However, I still think Labour will top the polls come election day.

I predict a small D66 (which is in ALDE) win.

Of course, everything's possible in the Netherlands because the polls show pretty much a tie ...

[Tender Branson]

My UK prediction:

27% UKIP
26% Labour
23% Tories
  9% LibDems
  7% Greens
  4% SNP
  2% BNP
  2% Others

Turnout: 35%

[Tender Branson]

My Netherlands prediction:

17% D66
15% PVV
13% SP
12% VVD
11% CDA
10% PvdA
  9% CU/SGP
  6% GroenLinks
  3% 50+
  1% PvdD
  3% Others

Turnout: 36%

[Tender Branson]

My France prediction:

24% FN
21% UMP
17% PS
10% MoDem
10% Greens
  8% Left
10% Others

My Spain prediction:

34% PP
30% PSOE
11% IU
  7% UPyD
  6% CEU
  4% EPDD
  8% Others

My Poland prediction:

31% PO
30% PiS
14% SLD
  6% PSL
  5% E+TR
  5% KNP
  9% Others

[Tender Branson]

My Germany prediction:

36.1% CDU/CSU
25.9% SPD
10.2% Greens
  7.7% Left
  7.1% AfD
  3.3% FDP
  2.2% Pirates
  7.5% Others

35.3% CDU/CSU
27.3% SPD
10.7% Greens
  7.4% Left
  7.0% AfD
  3.4% FDP
  1.4% Pirates
  7.5% Others

...

Not all too bad ...