Hungary Parliamentary Election - April 6, 2014

[Tender Branson]

A parliamentary election will be held in Hungary on 6 April 2014.

It will be the first election according to the new Constitution of Hungary which went into force on 1 January 2012. The new electoral law also entered into force that day. For the first time since Hungary's transition to democracy, the election will have a single round. The voters will elect 199 MPs instead of previous 386 lawmakers.

...

Main parties:

Fidesz–KDNP (conservative, polls around 48-52% right now)
Unity (center-left opposition, polls around 25-30% right now)
Jobbik (neo-Nazis, polls around 15-20% right now)
LMP (Greens, polls around 2-5% right now)

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hungarian_parliamentary_election,_2014

...

Anyway, this will be a very depressing election ...

[Tender Branson]

This looks like the first EU government re-election since October 2011 in Poland, I believe.

Ours was also re-elected last year ...

[Tender Branson]

My prediction for today:

48% Fidesz
26% Unity
22% Jobbik
  3% LMP
  1% Others

Turnout: 65%

Fidesz gets about 135-145 seats in the new 199 member parliament (2/3 majority), because they will win basically all direct seats.

[Tender Branson]

This is an awesome clickable map:

http://valasztas.otthonterkep.hu

If my translation skills are correct, the clickable features from top to bottom mean:

* the new gerrymandered, blank 2014 districts and if you click on them, every candidate

* the 2010 election results in the new gerrymandered 2014 districts

* the 2006 election results in the new gerrymandered 2014 districts

* 2014 seat projection, using the new gerrymandered 2014 districts

* 2010 results, using the old election districts

[Tender Branson]

Turnout chart (compared with 1st round of 2010):

[Tender Branson]

Turnout by region at 9am:

[Tender Branson]

11am turnout:

[Tender Branson]

11am turnout by region:

[Tender Branson]

Some pictures from election day:

Viktor Orbán (Fidesz) & wife voting:



Attila Mesterházy (Unity) & family voting:



Gábor Vona (Jobbik) & family voting:



András Schiffer (LMP) voting:



Random people voting:

[Tender Branson]

1pm turnout:



Looks like 62%-ish turnout for the day.

[Tender Branson]

1pm turnout by region:

[Tender Branson]

Voters in Budapest are now flocking to the polls, with some polling stations there reporting big lines:

(This could be some good news for the left-wing opposition, because Budapest has seen a higher share for the left in previous elections than other parts of Hungary ...)











http://mno.hu/galeriak/2420491

[Tender Branson]

It's interesting to see how the turnout in Hungary seems to be higher in the urban areas, rather than the rural areas like here in Austria and almost anywhere else ...

Anyway, 3pm turnout numbers for the country:

[Tender Branson]

First Exit Poll (list vote):

48% Fidesz
27% Unity
18% Jobbik
  6% LMP
  1% Others

[Tender Branson]

Voting btw will be extended to 8pm because of long lines in Budapest.

[Tender Branson]

Detailed results are to be expected in about 2-3 hours.

[Tender Branson]

New Exit Poll (list vote, different company):

47-51% Fidesz
19-23% Unity
18-22% Jobbik
    3-7% LMP

Turnout: 60-62%

http://hvg.hu/itthon/20140406_Szazadveg_kormanypartok_4751_szazalek_ba

[Tender Branson]

Turnout in Budapest was already hitting 70% at 5pm and there were still a ton of people standing in line there:



Voting will be extended there, until everyone who's in the line has voted ...

[Tender Branson]

Here's a good clickable map:

http://hvg.hu/valasztas

Overall a horrible result of course, but at least Jobbik won no direct seat.

Of the 106 direct seats, Fidesz won 96 and Unity 10 (of which 8 are in Budapest).