The 2014 primary season ends (Sept. 9: DE, MA, NH, NY, RI) (user search)
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  The 2014 primary season ends (Sept. 9: DE, MA, NH, NY, RI) (search mode)
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Author Topic: The 2014 primary season ends (Sept. 9: DE, MA, NH, NY, RI)  (Read 148016 times)
Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,198
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84
« Reply #25 on: June 25, 2014, 01:37:29 AM »
Quote from: Tender Branson on June 22, 2014, 01:30:20 AM
My predictions:

MS: 52% Cochran, 48% McDaniel

OK: 47% Lankford*, 45% Shannon*, 4% Brogdon, 4% Others (* = runoff)

FL-19: 68% Clawson (R), 27% Freeman (D), 5% Lib. guy

Actual results:

MS: 51% Cochran, 49% McDaniel

OK: 57% Lankford, 34% Shannon, 5% Brogdon, 4% Others

FL-19: 67% Clawson (R), 29% Freeman (D), 4% Lib. guy

Smiley

(except OK)
Logged
Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,198
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84
« Reply #26 on: July 01, 2014, 03:35:55 AM »

The next interesting primary is in 3 weeks on July 22, with the GA Senate runoff.

(On July 15, there are runoffs in AL and NC, but nothing really interesting).
Logged
Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,198
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84
« Reply #27 on: July 17, 2014, 02:13:05 AM »
July 22 GA-runoff results by county:

http://hosted.ap.org/dynamic/files/elections/2014/by_county/GA_US_Senate_0722.html?SITE=AP&SECTION=POLITICS
Logged
Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,198
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84
« Reply #28 on: July 23, 2014, 01:20:20 AM »
I see Perdue has won the runoff ?

Which means all the polls were wrong (PPP, Landmark, InsiderAdvantage), predicing Kingston+5 or so.

Of course, 10-15% were still undecided.

Now, Perdue seems to have much fewer cash left than Nunn (or Kingston had), but seems to have a better profile for the GE than Kingston (being a businessman and not a Washington insider).
Logged
Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,198
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84
« Reply #29 on: July 23, 2014, 10:04:12 AM »
« Edited: July 31, 2014, 10:19:59 AM by Tender Branson »
Quote from: Wulfric on July 22, 2014, 11:30:21 PM
That's all for tonight. Next up is the Virgin Islands Primary on August 2nd.

That will be one hell of an election !
Logged
Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,198
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84
« Reply #30 on: July 31, 2014, 10:19:49 AM »
KS:

http://hosted.ap.org/dynamic/files/elections/2014/by_state/KS_Page_0805.html?SITE=AP&SECTION=POLITICS

MI:

http://hosted.ap.org/dynamic/files/elections/2014/by_state/MI_Page_0805.html?SITE=AP&SECTION=POLITICS

MO:

http://hosted.ap.org/dynamic/files/elections/2014/by_state/MO_Page_0805.html?SITE=AP&SECTION=POLITICS

WA:

http://hosted.ap.org/dynamic/files/elections/2014/by_state/WA_Page_0805.html?SITE=AP&SECTION=POLITICS
Logged
Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,198
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84
« Reply #31 on: August 05, 2014, 02:33:14 AM »
My KS prediction is:

53.4% Roberts
45.1% Wolf
  1.5% Others
Logged
Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,198
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84
« Reply #32 on: August 06, 2014, 12:52:39 AM »
Quote from: Tender Branson on August 05, 2014, 02:33:14 AM
My KS prediction is:

53.4% Roberts
45.1% Wolf
  1.5% Others

I got the margin more or less right, but underestimated the 2 fringe candidates:

U.S. Senate - GOP Primary
3487 of 3487 Precincts Reporting - 100%

48% Roberts
41% Wolf
11% Others
Logged
Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,198
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84
« Reply #33 on: August 06, 2014, 01:50:10 AM »
Turnout once again down to new lows:

Only 18% voted in the primary (compared with 25% in 2010).
Logged
Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,198
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84
« Reply #34 on: August 06, 2014, 09:25:33 AM »
TN results:

http://hosted.ap.org/dynamic/files/elections/2014/by_state/TN_Page_0807.html?SITE=AP&SECTION=POLITICS

HI results:

http://hosted.ap.org/dynamic/files/elections/2014/by_state/HI_Page_0809.html?SITE=AP&SECTION=POLITICS
Logged
Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,198
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84
« Reply #35 on: August 07, 2014, 10:10:39 AM »
Time for my prediction:

56% Alexander
35% Carr
  6% Flinn
  3% Others
Logged
Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,198
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84
« Reply #36 on: August 08, 2014, 02:18:15 AM »
Good showing by Carr, I thought Alexander would do much better.
Logged
Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,198
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84
« Reply #37 on: August 08, 2014, 07:15:13 AM »
How can someone with only 42 Facebook likes and who doesn't even have a website become the Democratic nominee for TN Governor ?
Logged
Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,198
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84
« Reply #38 on: August 08, 2014, 07:27:13 AM »
Turnout also dropped in TN:

23% vs. 29% in 2010 and 2006.
Logged
Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,198
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84
« Reply #39 on: August 10, 2014, 07:05:02 AM »
Schatz seems to have won this, because it's unlikely that there's 100% turnout in the remaining 2 precincts and a big enough Hanabusa win.
Logged
Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,198
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84
« Reply #40 on: August 10, 2014, 07:15:07 AM »
It seems there are also a couple thousand absentee ballots left to count, so the Schatz-win is not so sure yet (but still very likely).

Quote
You must be logged in to read this quote.

http://www.hawaiinewsnow.com/story/26235519/2014-primary-gov-abercrombie-ige-senate-results
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,198
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84
« Reply #41 on: August 11, 2014, 03:03:14 AM »
CT results:

http://hosted.ap.org/dynamic/files/elections/2014/by_state/CT_Page_0812.html?SITE=AP&SECTION=POLITICS

MN results:

http://hosted.ap.org/dynamic/files/elections/2014/by_state/MN_Page_0812.html?SITE=AP&SECTION=POLITICS

WI results:

http://hosted.ap.org/dynamic/files/elections/2014/by_state/WI_Page_0812.html?SITE=AP&SECTION=POLITICS
Logged
Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,198
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84
« Reply #42 on: August 14, 2014, 05:31:03 AM »
AK results:

http://hosted.ap.org/dynamic/files/elections/2014/by_state/AK_Page_0819.html?SITE=AP&SECTION=POLITICS

WY results:

http://hosted.ap.org/dynamic/files/elections/2014/by_state/WY_Page_0819.html?SITE=AP&SECTION=POLITICS
Logged
Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,198
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84
« Reply #43 on: August 14, 2014, 05:36:08 AM »
BTW:

There will be 2 different "Dan Sullivan"s on the Alaska ballot next week:



Quote
You must be logged in to read this quote.

http://online.wsj.com/articles/alaska-election-offers-two-chances-to-vote-for-dan-sullivan-1407897002
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,198
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84
« Reply #44 on: August 20, 2014, 01:09:54 AM »
Quote from: Flo on August 20, 2014, 01:07:23 AM
Jaramillo 3.60% (1,101 votes)
Miller 38.43% (11,761 votes)
Sullivan 35.83% (10,965 votes)
Treadwell 22.15% (6778 votes)

Nope, it's:

13859    39.10% Sullivan
11761    33.18% Miller
  8726    24.62% Treadwell
Logged
Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,198
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84
« Reply #45 on: August 21, 2014, 09:51:36 AM »
AZ results:

http://hosted.ap.org/dynamic/files/elections/2014/by_state/AZ_Page_0826.html?SITE=AP&SECTION=POLITICS

FL results:

http://hosted.ap.org/dynamic/files/elections/2014/by_state/FL_Page_0826.html?SITE=AP&SECTION=POLITICS

OK results:

http://hosted.ap.org/dynamic/files/elections/2014/by_state/OK_Page_0826.html?SITE=AP&SECTION=POLITICS

VT results:

http://hosted.ap.org/dynamic/files/elections/2014/by_state/VT_Page_0826.html?SITE=AP&SECTION=POLITICS
Logged
Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,198
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84
« Reply #46 on: August 28, 2014, 08:41:49 AM »
DE results:

http://hosted.ap.org/dynamic/files/elections/2014/by_state/DE_Page_0909.html?SITE=AP&SECTION=POLITICS

MA results:

http://hosted.ap.org/dynamic/files/elections/2014/by_state/MA_Page_0909.html?SITE=AP&SECTION=POLITICS

NH results:

http://hosted.ap.org/dynamic/files/elections/2014/by_state/NH_Page_0909.html?SITE=AP&SECTION=POLITICS

NY results:

http://hosted.ap.org/dynamic/files/elections/2014/by_state/NY_Page_0909.html?SITE=AP&SECTION=POLITICS

RI results:

http://hosted.ap.org/dynamic/files/elections/2014/by_state/RI_Page_0909.html?SITE=AP&SECTION=POLITICS
Logged
Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,198
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84
« Reply #47 on: September 10, 2014, 01:54:03 AM »
BTW, PPP was the only pollster to get the Moulton-win in MA-06 right.
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