NBC/PSRAI: Clinton leads Christie by 10 nationally

[Tender Branson]

44-34 Clinton

Thirty-two percent of GOP and GOP-leaning respondents called Christie their top choice for the Republican presidential nod; 31 percent named someone else.

In contrast, Clinton was the first choice of 66 percent of Democrats and Democratic-leaning respondents for the Democratic nomination; 14 percent said they’d opt for another candidate.

...

The poll, conducted by Princeton Survey Research Associates International, surveyed 1,003 adults Nov. 7-10 and has a margin of error of plus-or-minus 3.6 percentage points.

The sample included 428 Democrats and people who lean Democratic, with a margin of error of plus-or-minus 5.5 percentage points; and 394 Republicans and those who lean Republican, with a margin of error of plus-or-minus 5.8 percentage points.

http://www.politico.com/story/2013/11/hillary-clinton-chris-christie%20poll%202016-99687.html

[Tender Branson]

So, we have 3 recent polls, using 3 different criterias:

NBC poll: Clinton+10 (among all adults)

PPP poll: Clinton+5 (among RV)

Rasmussen poll: Clinton+2 (among LV)

[Tender Branson]

Sounds a bit generous to me. PPP is probably the closest. It's dumb to be polling LVs this early, but typical of Rassy, I suppose.

It's natural that the adult poll shows the widest margin for Clinton and if you go down to RV and LV the lead falls, because the electorate becomes more Republican.

Polls have shown in 2012, that non-registered adults strongly favor the DEM candidate.

So, the leads above could be correct, but the margin of error probably plays a role too.

Also: PSRAI, polling for Pew Research in 2012, had the closest final poll with Obama+3 (actual result was Obama+4)

[Tender Branson]

A poll of all adults doesn't mean anything.  Many adults don't even know who Hillary Clinton is, and aren't likely voters.  This poll means nothing.  

Hillary Clinton's name recognition in the US is 90%+

In the last national Quinnipiac poll from October, only 6% of those polled didn't know enough to rate her favorably or unfavorably.

http://www.quinnipiac.edu/institutes-and-centers/polling-institute/national/release-detail?ReleaseID=1959

[Tender Branson]

In Quinnipiac's "hotness poll" from August, which also asked name recognition, only 2% didn't know Hillary Clinton:

http://www.quinnipiac.edu/institutes-and-centers/polling-institute/national/release-detail?ReleaseID=1932

Scroll down to the tables, 1st question under "DK".

[Tender Branson]

Gallup trend chart, only 1% has never heard of Hillary Clinton (you probably need to live in a cave in the mountains or something to not know who Hillary Clinton is):

[Tender Branson]

That doesn't change the fact that no matter what you do, voter turn out will never be 'all adults'.  They may know who Clinton is, but that doesn't mean they'll vote for her. 

I know, I said this in my 3rd post above.

I just wanted to correct your point that many adults don't know Hillary.

Also: PSRAI, polling for Pew Research in 2012, had the closest final poll with Obama+3 (actual result was Obama+4)

Actually the RAND poll (Obama +3.3) and the Democracy Corps poll (Obama +4) were the most accurate, but Pew/PSRAI was also very good.

Ah yeah, I was only looking at the last RCP average page ...