German Elections & Politics

[Tender Branson]

Clickable new map of the 2017 federal election results by town (there are 11.000):

https://interaktiv.morgenpost.de/gemeindekarte-bundestagswahl-2017

I think this is the first map of its kind.

White = no inhabitants.

Also do not forget the +/- zoom sign at the bottom right, to show results for small towns.

[Tender Branson]

With these numbers, the SPD is probably at 3-5% soon in rural Bavaria or BW ...

[Tender Branson]

Question for German posters:

Why are these uninhabitated areas shown in white ?

Are these areas not part of a community, like in the US where unincorporated areas are simply shown as uninhabitated ?

Here in Austria, uninhabitated areas are still part of a town and not shown seperately on a map.

[Tender Branson]

The GRAND Coalition has no majority anymore ... (47.5% vs. 48.5%):

[Tender Branson]

The tragic story of the Martin Schulz-SPD:

Feb. 2017: SPD 34%, CDU/CSU 32%

[Tender Branson]

INSA is trolling again... take it with a huge grain of salt.

It's almost certain that the SPD and AfD are about tied right now, after the SPD went into full self-destruct mode ...

Besides, INSA wasn't bad before the 2017 election. Even slightly better than FGW or dimap.

[Tender Branson]

Lange looks refreshing.

http://www.spiegel.de/politik/deutschland/spd-warum-simone-lange-gegen-andrea-nahles-antritt-a-1193260.html

Nahles is just more of the same establishment crap. Besides, Lange also has hands-on experience because she's a former Federal Criminal Office employee and knows quite a bit about crime, which could help bring back AfD-voters.

But as I know the politically-correct SPD establishment, she will of course have no chance because exactly of this reason and they will go with Nahles and off the cliff ...

[Tender Branson]

CDU/CSU-AfD would almost have a majority ... (48-49).

[Tender Branson]

Okay, now it's a respectable pollster.

Did you seriously believe that the SPD is not in trouble right now ?

One doesn't need a pollster for that ...

[Tender Branson]

Brand new YouGov poll:



Compared with their poll from a month ago:

CDU/CSU: -2%
SPD: -3%
AfD: +2%
Greens: +2%
Left: +1%
FDP: n.c.
Others: n.c.

[Tender Branson]

Infratest Dimap poll of next year's Brandenburg state election:

AfD: 29%
CDU: 24%
Linke: 17%
SPD: 15%
FDP: 6%
Green: 5%

https://twitter.com/EuropeElects/status/969278678763999232

That's not a poll for Brandenburg as a whole, only for the city of Cottbus.

[Tender Branson]

BREAKING: Tagesschau says it's a yes, numbers will be announced soon.

EDIT: 239,604 66.02% in favor, 123,329; 33.98% opposed. Turnout: 363,494 valid votes (78.39%)

http://www.tagesschau.de/

Interesting to note that even if there were 100% turnout and all of those who did not vote voted for No, Yes would have still won.

PS: my prediction was 61-39 for Yes (sadly).

[Tender Branson]

Here is the result, shown in a different way:

463.722 - SPD-members eligible to vote

239.604 - Yes (51.7%)
123.329 - No (26.6%)
  15.504 - Invalid votes (3.3%)
  85.285 - Didn't vote (18.4%)

Turnout was actually 81.6%

[Tender Branson]

Turnout was actually 81.6%

How?

Because turnout also includes the invalid votes that were cast. Just like in a regular election.

[Tender Branson]

March 4, 2018 - The day the SPD died. You lose 11 points in the first GroKo, 5 points in the second one and then decide to get into this alliance for a third time? How goddamn stupid do you have to be in order to do that?

Well, at this rate they can still afford to enter another 3 GroKo's until they have reached 0% ...

[Tender Branson]

New poll for the Bayern state election in the fall shows the state is shifting heavily to the Right (just like neighbouring Salzburg in the recent state election here):

44% CSU (-4)
14% SPD (-7)
12% AfD (+12)
11% Greens (+2)
  6% FW (-3)
  5% FDP (+2)
  3% Left (+1)
  5% Others (-3)

Right (CSU+AfD+FW+FDP): 67% (+7%)
Left (SPD+Greens+Left): 28% (-4%)

By a 59-36 margin, voters approve of the CSU state government.

By a 38-59 margin, voters disapprove of the CDU/CSU-SPD federal government.

The new Bayern Governor Markus Söder gets a 52-38 approval rating.

Chancellor Merkel is down by 47-50 in Bayern.

https://www.sat1.at/regional/bayern/highlight-artikel/2018/april/waehlercheck-csu-legt-auf-44-zu-fdp-mit-5-auf-der-kippe

[Tender Branson]

Who would the CSU take as a junior partner? The FDP?

According to the poll, the CSU could also govern alone again.

There's the 5% threshold and if the FDP gets 4.99%, then the CSU is at 44% and the opposition at 43% ...

[Tender Branson]

SPD Bayern dropping like a rock with just a few months until the state election (new Infratest poll for the BR):

[Tender Branson]

"He issued a decree ordering all public authorities to hang up a Christian cross in every room."

This decision is pretty popular though in Bavaria, contrary to what you call a "sh*tstorm":

INFRATEST dimap poll

56% support
38% oppose

By party:

77-19 AfD
71-24 CSU
56-32 FW
52-46 SPD
29-67 FDP
26-74 Greens

Rural areas: 66% support
Urban areas: 45% support

https://www.br.de/br-fernsehen/sendungen/kontrovers/index.html

[Tender Branson]

Merkel's so-called "grand" CDU-SPD coalition got heavily attacked in the Bundestag today by AfD-leader Alice Weidel:

http://www.dw.com/en/germanys-angela-merkel-ignores-xenophobic-attack-in-bundestag-debate/a-43801414

Merkel of course ignored her comments, not understanding that she herself is responsible for the rapid rise of the AfD ... just as Karl Lagerfeld puts it:

https://www.independent.ie/style/karl-lagerfeld-expresses-disdain-for-angela-merkel-and-her-decision-to-open-borders-to-hundreds-of-thousands-of-refugees-36901588.html

[Tender Branson]

A new Infratest dimap poll out of Hessen, which will have a state election in October:

31% CDU (-7)
22% SPD (-9)
15% AfD (+11)
14% Greens (+3)
  7% FDP (+2)
  7% Left (+2)
  4% Others (-2)

[Tender Branson]

For the first time in 70 years, the Bavarian Governor (Söder, CSU) will not invite the leader of the CDU to his final campaign event ahead of the Bavarian state election this fall.

Instead of inviting Merkel to campaign with him, Söder will invite Chancellor Sebastian Kurz to campaign with him:

https://derstandard.at/2000082146041/Wahlkampf-in-Bayern-Soeder-will-Kundgebung-mit-Kurz-statt-Merkel

[Tender Branson]

For the first time in 70 years, the Bavarian Governor (Söder, CSU) will not invite the leader of the CDU to his final campaign event ahead of the Bavarian state election this fall.

Instead of inviting Merkel to campaign with him, Söder will invite Chancellor Sebastian Kurz to campaign with him:

https://derstandard.at/2000082146041/Wahlkampf-in-Bayern-Soeder-will-Kundgebung-mit-Kurz-statt-Merkel

Arent' foreign leaders supposed to be neutral? It's like Merkel campaigning for Theresa May or Donald Trump for the AfD.

More or less.

It's pretty common that politicians invite other foreign politicians from the same political grouping to campaign for them.

I remember that Martin Schulz campaigned with Kern before the Austrian election here and Christian Lindner was invited by NEOS and Gregor Gysi was at an event for the KPÖ.

[Tender Branson]

New INSA poll for the Bayern state election on Oct. 14:



Changes compared with 2013:

CSU: -6.7%
AfD: +14.0%
SPD: -7.6%
Greens: +4.4%
FW: -3.0%
FDP: +1.7%
Left: +0.9%
Others: -3.7%

[Tender Branson]

https://twitter.com/EuropeElects/status/1013793694187773953

https://twitter.com/EuropeElects/status/1013794455550353408

Also:

48% "Grand" Coalition
48% Opposition