German Elections & Politics

[Tender Branson]

Here's another election tool for your vote-choice ("Vote Swiper"):

https://wahlswiper.de

My results:

[Tender Branson]

By the way, this topic has surpassed the France 2012 election thread in views and is now the most-viewed thread on the International Elections board ever. 🤗🏆

France 2017 got deleted tho.

If we add up "Austrian Politics" 1.0, 2.0 and 3.0 - this combined megathread would have 480.000 views, compared to 300.000 for the German thread.

[Tender Branson]

Also: 36.5% for Red-Darkred-Green must be an all-time-low.

CDU/CSU-AfD-FDP meanwhile are close to 60%.

[Tender Branson]

"Why is the left breast bigger?"

Scientists still don't really know why that is the case ...

Plus: on the male side, one testicle is below the other (in 85% of the cases it is the left testicle). And this has a reason: Safety (prevents ball-crushing).

[Tender Branson]

I just made a compilation of the questions German voters ask Google. Especially liked the ones for the Greens. "Warum sind die Grünen gegen Deutschland?"

Thanks for the chart, but please DO NOT USE imgur in future posts. It doesn't work here.

Use imgbb

[Tender Branson]

Do you support the death penalty ?

... what a ridiculous question to ask in Germany or Austria, where only 15% of the population support it and not a single party either (not even the AfD or the FPÖ).

[Tender Branson]

Scandal !

The recent town hall with Merkel featured a ton of refugees who had the possibility to speak with her and plead against their deportation (one even said into the camera: "I LOVE you, Mrs. Merkel !").

On the other hand, the public broadcaster ZDF disinvited a Berlin terror victim before the town hall, who also wanted to debate Merkel ...

[Tender Branson]

What exactly happened to the SPD? I haven't been following the election closely but I remember eralier in the year it looked like they actually had a chance?

The Schulz train had a massive engine failure along the way and it turned out that engine is broken beyond repair. That's what happened.

PS: I will post my predictions for NZ and Germany tonight.

[Tender Branson]

My final prediction for tomorrow:

35.3% CDU/CSU (-6.2)
21.1% SPD (-4.6)
12.4% AfD (+7.7)
10.7% FDP (+5.9)
  8.6% Left (n.c.)
  7.3% Greens (-1.1)
  4.6% Others* (-1.7)

* Free Voters and The Party with about 1% each, all others below 1%.

Turnout: 74.4% (+2.9)

[Tender Branson]

Any clue what party this woman will voted (or already have voted) for?

I guess she's a Conservative. So, CSU.

[Tender Branson]

So, it seems that the CSU will get around 6 percent of the votes. What would they do in the future if they were in danger of falling below 5 percent nationally? Would they start running in other states, or would they be integrated with the CDU?

The 5% hurdle for the CSU would not really apply:

The CSU would still be represented in the Bundestag via winning direct seats (and they win every single seat in Bavaria).

[Tender Branson]

I think there needs to be some kind of compromise for CDU/CSU-FDP-Greens to happen, such as granting the CSU to impose a low annual immigrant/asylum Obergrenze (= upper limit) for Bavaria in the coalition contract, which they can enforce. Or some other goodies to bring them onboard, such as limiting the big Bavarian payments to the poorer East etc.

[Tender Branson]

Again, none of this would even matter if what was written in the constitution was properly applied to asylum seekers:

1) Persons persecuted on political grounds shall have the right of asylum.

(2) Paragraph (1) of this Article may not be invoked by a person who enters the federal territory from a member state of the European Communities or from another third state in which application of the Convention Relating to the Status of Refugees and of the Convention for the Protection of Human Rights and Fundamental Freedoms is assured.

Correct.

These economic migrants (and most of them who came are) cannot pick and choose the country they wanna go to, just because they think milk and honey are provided to them ...

Asylum seekers have the right to request asylum in the neighboring countries, but certainly not move through 10 safe countries before their destiny of choice.

This needs to be stopped and the only way is to send a signal by cutting down the welfare payments to illegal economic migrants to zero - to scare them off. Only then will the message spread to Africa and the Middle East, where the impoverished masses are waiting to hop over to Europe. And the smuggler's work will be destroyed too.

[Tender Branson]

The Austrian ORF (= public broadcaster) is reporting that the Jamaica talks are close to failing, mostly because of the Greens - who yesterday said that of the 10 points that are most important to them, zero have been added to the coalition agreement or finalized yet so that the Greens can live with it ...

You must be logged in to read this quote.

http://orf.at/stories/2414540/2414539

[Tender Branson]

I somehow pity the German voters ...

At least we had a clear vote here and a clear mandate for the coming government, whether you like them ideologically or not.

It's going to be really though going forward into new elections, especially with the SPD remaining in hardcore opposition mode.

[Tender Branson]

Is there any progress going on?

Could take a while ...

But don't worry: If Merkel is unable to form a government until July 1, then "workaholic" Kurz will take over her leading position in Europe and take control of the EU/Brexit talks with the Austrian EU presidency starting in the 2nd half of 2018. It would be nice to see Merkel being put down for a while.

[Tender Branson]

I'm almost a million percent sure Kurz will never be the "leading figure in the EU".

But he already has been, by implementing the closing of the Balkans route for migrants.

So, it's pretty likely that Kurz was put Merkel in the shadows during the 2nd half of 2018, especially if she's still preoccupied with forming a government then ...

Kurz is a workaholic, so he'll definitely be in the news a lot between July and December and yes, he's going to be a "leading figure in the EU".

[Tender Branson]

This wasn't posted yet:

You must be logged in to read this quote.

https://www.nytimes.com/2018/01/02/world/europe/germany-twitter-muslims-hordes.html

Pretty sad to see Germany going into full Kalwejt-mode and surpressing free speech ...

[Tender Branson]

New Bayern state election poll:



Voters also prefer a CSU-Green government right now:

[Tender Branson]

SPD @ 18% in the latest Forsa poll ...

[Tender Branson]

So, let me get this straight:

* Merkel/CDU-CSU was expected to win easily, but then had a very mediocre (= bad) election result and got humiliated.

* She then limped along to talk with the FDP and Greens, which failed utterly.

* The SPD had a chance to go into opposition and rebuild and let Merkel "auflaufen" (= in English something like "let herself disassemble along the way").

* Instead, the SPD chose to betray voters and start talks with her and contrary to Merkel it's now themselves who are aufgelaufen (=> hitting the wall at full speed in this split vote).

How stupid is the SPD ?

[Tender Branson]

So, let me get this straight:

* Merkel/CDU-CSU was expected to win easily, but then had a very mediocre (= bad) election result and got humiliated.

* She then limped along to talk with the FDP and Greens, which failed utterly.

* The SPD had a chance to go into opposition and rebuild and let Merkel "auflaufen" (= in English something like "let herself disassemble along the way").

* Instead, the SPD chose to betray voters and start talks with her and contrary to Merkel it's now themselves who are aufgelaufen (=> hitting the wall at full speed in this split vote).

How stupid is the SPD ?

Schulz comes from a political culture (the EU) where he benefited greatly from his GroKo with the EPP, and he never had to look over his shoulder electorally. Also, I think his speech indicated that it was only to pursue the talks.

I personally, despite not wanting the GroKo, understand the political logic behind it, especially after what one of the German posters said on here about the average age of the SPD rank and file.

The thing with constant Grand Coalitions is that they could turn into political incest (see Austria) , or in the case of Germany - political BDSM - and that people/parties will start to hate each other after a long time together.

So, it is refreshing to have another government option here and then, even if it involves the FPÖ or the AfD. Here is where I don't understand the Germans and their desire for "keeping the Far Right out of office no matter what". It seems the Germans are the Vulcans of Europe ("do not allow any emotions and kill any political incorrectness immediately because it would be a sign of instability"). On the other hand, Austrians have no such "Vulcan" reservations.

[Tender Branson]

So, let me get this straight:

* Merkel/CDU-CSU was expected to win easily, but then had a very mediocre (= bad) election result and got humiliated.

* She then limped along to talk with the FDP and Greens, which failed utterly.

* The SPD had a chance to go into opposition and rebuild and let Merkel "auflaufen" (= in English something like "let herself disassemble along the way").

* Instead, the SPD chose to betray voters and start talks with her and contrary to Merkel it's now themselves who are aufgelaufen (=> hitting the wall at full speed in this split vote).

How stupid is the SPD ?

Schulz comes from a political culture (the EU) where he benefited greatly from his GroKo with the EPP, and he never had to look over his shoulder electorally. Also, I think his speech indicated that it was only to pursue the talks.

I personally, despite not wanting the GroKo, understand the political logic behind it, especially after what one of the German posters said on here about the average age of the SPD rank and file.

The thing with constant Grand Coalitions is that they could turn into political incest (see Austria) , or in the case of Germany - political BDSM - and that people/parties will start to hate each other after a long time together.

So, it is refreshing to have another government option here and then, even if it involves the FPÖ or the AfD. Here is where I don't understand the Germans and their desire for "keeping the Far Right out of office no matter what". It seems the Germans are the Vulcans of Europe ("do not allow any emotions and kill any political incorrectness immediately because it would be a sign of instability"). On the other hand, Austrians have no such "Vulcan" reservations.

Yes, what could possibly make the Germans hesitant about the Far Right?

Yeah, I know ... WW2.

But what is better ?

* letting the AfD govern together with the CDU/CSU, a coalition in which the conservatives have for example 36% and the AfD 12% and would therefore get just a quarter of power and cabinet posts ? And let them make mistakes and probably fail and drop to 5% after a few years ?

* excluding them forever and let them grow ... and grow ... and grow, until they cannot be ignored anymore ? This is exactly what happened in the US: the "Deplorables" (as the incredibly stupid Hillary called them), in the shadows and being unfairly treated for a long time, did rise up and turned out in droves because they didn't want to be ignored any longer. And the result was Trump.

[Tender Branson]

So, let me get this straight:

* Merkel/CDU-CSU was expected to win easily, but then had a very mediocre (= bad) election result and got humiliated.

* She then limped along to talk with the FDP and Greens, which failed utterly.

* The SPD had a chance to go into opposition and rebuild and let Merkel "auflaufen" (= in English something like "let herself disassemble along the way").

* Instead, the SPD chose to betray voters and start talks with her and contrary to Merkel it's now themselves who are aufgelaufen (=> hitting the wall at full speed in this split vote).

How stupid is the SPD ?

Schulz comes from a political culture (the EU) where he benefited greatly from his GroKo with the EPP, and he never had to look over his shoulder electorally. Also, I think his speech indicated that it was only to pursue the talks.

I personally, despite not wanting the GroKo, understand the political logic behind it, especially after what one of the German posters said on here about the average age of the SPD rank and file.

The thing with constant Grand Coalitions is that they could turn into political incest (see Austria) , or in the case of Germany - political BDSM - and that people/parties will start to hate each other after a long time together.

So, it is refreshing to have another government option here and then, even if it involves the FPÖ or the AfD. Here is where I don't understand the Germans and their desire for "keeping the Far Right out of office no matter what". It seems the Germans are the Vulcans of Europe ("do not allow any emotions and kill any political incorrectness immediately because it would be a sign of instability"). On the other hand, Austrians have no such "Vulcan" reservations.

Yes, what could possibly make the Germans hesitant about the Far Right?

Yeah, I know ... WW2.

But what is better ?

* letting the AfD govern together with the CDU/CSU, a coalition in which the conservatives have for example 36% and the AfD 12% and would therefore get just a quarter of power and cabinet posts ? And let them make mistakes and probably fail and drop to 5% after a few years ?

* excluding them forever and let them grow ... and grow ... and grow, until they cannot be ignored anymore ? This is exactly what happened in the US: the "Deplorables" (as the incredibly stupid Hillary called them), in the shadows and being unfairly treated for a long time, did rise up and turned out in droves because they didn't want to be ignored any longer. And the result was Trump.

The main problem with this is the AfD doesn't even want a Merkel coalition, even if it was a possibility rather then political taboo. Their whole stick, aside from the anti-migrant anti-EU part, is being strong anti-Merkel. They don't want a coalition with the "cooperationist" CDU. Even if these bridges could be passed, they would still need the FDP on board to cross 50%.

No, the options right now are:

Grand Coalition (shudder)
Jamaica, or Black/Green in the event of new elections

Where did I write "Merkel coalition" ? The AfD would be willing to work with CDU/CSU if Merkel were history.

And there are other people in the CDU/CSU who would be willing to work with them ... assuming the AfD is growing up a bit and becomes more disciplined, like the FPÖ.

[Tender Branson]

If you want to vote against the Groko, you can join the SPD until February 6, 6 o'clock a.m.
This deadline was set by the party executive on Monday.

Beforehand, Kevin Kühnert, the chairman of the Jusos (the youth organization of the SPD), had come under fire after appealing to the public to join the SPD for a ten-spot in order to vote "no" and then to leave the party after two months.

2x stupid.

First, that the SPD even allows late & new members to vote (there should be a cutoff date of Dec. 31st or something) and second also Kühnert's call to join just to vote against and then quit again.

I actually like the SPD to go into opposition and re-group, but these measures are not helpful for a party that is already in bad shape.