Post your Austrian Parliamentary Election PREDICTIONS here. (user search)
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  Post your Austrian Parliamentary Election PREDICTIONS here. (search mode)
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Author Topic: Post your Austrian Parliamentary Election PREDICTIONS here.  (Read 1468 times)
Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,199
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84

« on: September 24, 2013, 09:47:36 AM »

Takes place this Sunday.

2008 result:

29.3% SPÖ (57 seats)
26.0% ÖVP (51 seats)
17.5% FPÖ (34 seats)
10.7% BZÖ (21 seats)
10.4% Greens (20 seats)
  2.1% LIF
  1.8% FRITZ
  0.8% KPÖ
  0.7% RETTÖ
  0.6% CPÖ
  0.1% Others

Total: 183 seats

Turnout: 78.8%

http://wahl08.bmi.gv.at

...

9 parties are running Austria-wide in this election:

* SPÖ, ÖVP, FPÖ, BZÖ, Greens, Team Stronach, NEOS/LIF, Pirate Party, KPÖ

5 parties are running in some states only:

* CPÖ (in B, OÖ, Stmk, Vbg)
* The Change (in Vienna, OÖ)
* SLP (in Vienna)
* Men's Party (in Vbg)
* EU Exit Party (in Vbg)

Check the main thread for more information:

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=165607.0
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,199
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84

« Reply #1 on: September 24, 2013, 09:52:35 AM »

The average of the latest polls might help you with your predictions:

26-28% SPÖ
22-25% ÖVP
19-21% FPÖ
13-16% Greens
    6-9% Team Stronach
    1-5% BZÖ
    1-4% NEOS
    0-2% Pirates
    0-1% KPÖ
    0-2% Others
Logged
Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,199
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84

« Reply #2 on: September 25, 2013, 01:20:54 PM »

I think there are no more polls being released in the next days, so start predicting ... Wink
Logged
Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,199
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84

« Reply #3 on: September 28, 2013, 07:07:41 AM »

My final prediction:

25.3%  [-4.0%] SPÖ - 48 seats [-9]
22.0% [+4.5%] FPÖ - 41 seats [+7]
21.4%  [-4.6%] ÖVP - 40 seats [-11]
14.0% [+3.6%] Greens - 26 seats [+6]
  6.5% [+6.5%] Team Stronach - 12 seats [+12]
  4.3%  [-6.4%] BZÖ - 8 seats [-13]
  4.2% [+2.1%] NEOS/LIF - 8 seats [+8]
  1.0% [+1.0%] Pirates
  0.9% [+0.1%] KPÖ
  0.4% Others

Turnout: 75.4% [-3.4%]

...

NEOS and BZÖ gain at the expense of the Greens and the ÖVP, which leads to the situation that the FPÖ comes in 2nd.
Logged
Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,199
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84

« Reply #4 on: September 28, 2013, 07:20:40 AM »

Prediction for my home state -> Salzburg:

24.5% ÖVP
22.5% FPÖ
20.5% SPÖ
16.0% Greens
  7.0% TS
  4.5% BZÖ
  3.5% NEOS
  1.0% Pirates
  0.5% KPÖ

Turnout: 75%

Prediction for my home district -> Zell am See:

25.5% ÖVP
24.5% SPÖ
21.0% FPÖ
12.0% Greens
  7.5% TS
  5.0% BZÖ
  3.0% NEOS
  1.0% Pirates
  0.5% KPÖ

Turnout: 76%

Prediction for my home city -> Zell am See:

28.0% SPÖ
22.0% FPÖ
20.0% ÖVP
13.0% Greens
  7.5% TS
  5.0% BZÖ
  3.0% NEOS
  1.0% Pirates
  0.5% KPÖ

Turnout: 65%
Logged
Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,199
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84

« Reply #5 on: September 29, 2013, 01:53:47 AM »

My Carinthia prediction (where the political map will look completely different after today):

32% SPÖ (+4)
19% FPÖ (+11)
16% ÖVP (+1)
12% Greens (+5)
  9% TS (+9)
  7% BZÖ (-32)
  3% NEOS (+3)
  1% Pirates (+1)
  1% KPÖ (nc)

Turnout: 78%
Logged
Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,199
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84

« Reply #6 on: September 29, 2013, 07:14:43 AM »


No, you can still post your predictions for another 2.5 hours.
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