A final poll from Suffolk:
52% Markey
42% Gomez
1% Heos
1% refused
4% Undecided
The bellwether areas of Lowell, Dartmouth and South Hadley all point to a big win for Markey as well. In Lowell, Markey leads 49 percent to 38 percent; in Dartmouth his lead is 52 percent to 37 percent; and in South Hadley the lead is 51 percent to 37 percent.
These communities -- Lowell, Dartmouth and South Hadley -- correctly predicted the statewide winner in the January 2010 special Senate election, and each was within 1 percentage point of the statewide vote cast for Scott Brown, Martha Coakley, and Joseph L. Kennedy, as follows:
Statewide: Brown 52 percent, Coakley 47 percent, Kennedy 1 percent
Lowell: Brown 52 percent, Coakley 47 percent, Kennedy 1 percent
Dartmouth: Brown 53 percent, Coakley 46 percent, Kennedy 1 percent
South Hadley: Brown 51 percent, Coakley 48 percent, Kennedy 1 percent
President’s approval ratings
President Barack Obama’s favorability ratings have shown a steady decrease from 67 percent favorable-29 percent unfavorable in May, to 60 percent favorable-35 percent unfavorable in early June to 53 percent favorable-43 percent unfavorable today.
His job performance numbers have fallen from 63 percent approve-32 percent disapprove in May to 57 percent approve-37 percent disapprove in early June to 47 percent approve-43 percent disapprove today.
Methodology
The statewide Suffolk University survey used a split sample of landline and cell phone numbers and a tight screen to filter out voters who weren't certain to vote or who couldn't name when the special general election would be held. The field of 500 likely voters was conducted Wednesday, June 19, through Saturday, June 22. The margin of error is +/- 4.4 percent at a 95 percent level of confidence.
The bellwether survey used voter lists from each community with the same tight screen as the statewide poll. It was fielded Friday, June 21, through Sunday, June 23. The margin of error is +/- 5.65 percent at a 95 percent level of confidence for each area. Bellwethers are designed to predict outcomes, not margins.
http://www.suffolk.edu/news/17889.php#.UciP39hICKJ
Poll
