Census 2011: Germany has 80.219.695 inhabitants

[Tender Branson]

Ernest,

Angela Merkel does not approve of this new system:

[Tender Branson]

Checking the state statistics websites, Bayern and Baden-Württemberg both have ca. 80% Christians and 5% Muslims. 15% are "other" or "no religion" or "not stated".

[Tender Branson]

End-2011 estimates (based on the May 2011 Census)

10.512.441 - Baden-Württemberg
12.443.372 - Bayern
  3.326.002 - Berlin
  2.453.180 - Brandenburg
     652.182 - Bremen
  1.718.187 - Hamburg
  5.993.771 - Hessen
  1.606.899 - Mecklenburg-Vorpommern
  7.774.253 - Niedersachsen
17.544.938 - Nordrhein-Westfalen
  3.990.033 - Rheinland-Pfalz
     997.855 - Saarland
  4.054.182 - Sachsen
  2.276.736 - Sachsen-Anhalt
  2.802.266 - Schleswig-Holstein
  2.181.603 - Thüringen

80.327.900 - Germany

My projected End-2012 estimates (using official state birth/death data up to November and migration balances up to November/December)

10.568.000 - Baden-Württemberg (+55K)
12.517.000 - Bayern (+74K)
  3.370.000 - Berlin (+44K)
  2.448.000 - Brandenburg (-5K)
     654.000 - Bremen (+2K)
  1.733.000 - Hamburg (+15K)
  6.017.000 - Hessen (+23K)
  1.600.000 - Mecklenburg-Vorpommern (-7K)
  7.778.000 - Niedersachsen (+4K)
17.551.000 - Nordrhein-Westfalen (+6K)
  3.990.000 - Rheinland-Pfalz (no change)
     994.000 - Saarland (-4K)
  4.050.000 - Sachsen (-4K)
  2.259.000 - Sachsen-Anhalt (-18K)
  2.806.000 - Schleswig-Holstein (+4K)
  2.170.000 - Thüringen (-12K)

80.505.000 - Germany (+177K)

...

These numbers should be within 5000 in each state and 10.000 for Germany, because December is unlikely to show significant birth/death or migration changes.

The official numbers are likely released in the coming months.

[Tender Branson]

[Tender Branson]

BTW:

The preliminary fortgeschriebene Bevölkerung (population estimate) for Dec. 31, 2012 is (already based on the Census 2011 numbers):

80.500.832

Which is up from the 80.327.900 on Dec. 31, 2011.

The population went up by 172.932 or 0.22%

There have been 673.570 births in 2012 and 869.582 deaths, for a natural decrease of 196.012

The birth rate was 8.4/1000 inhabitants and the death rate 10.8/1000 inhabitants.

The migration balance was positive with 368.944 more immigrants than emigrants.

The migration balance was positive at 4.6/1000 inhabitants.

These rates are based on the Mid-2012 population of 80.399.253 people.

Final numbers are out in August.

[Tender Branson]

I've recently thought about how the 2021 Census numbers could look like:

The fact that Germany's population is growing exclusively because of foreigners moving in, probably means that there will be another Census where the numbers are inflated. Mostly because foreigners who move out of Germany again as well as a smaller number of Germans moving to other countries are simply not de-registering at their city where they are registered. Which means they are in the registers but not in the country anymore. There's not a lot the local authorities can do about it, other than hold a Census every 10 years and correct the registers.

So, what does this mean in numbers ?

If we assume that the population grows by 150.000 on average for the next 8.5 years, the population on Census Day 2021 will be ca. 81.776.000, or if we assume 200.000 per year it's ca. 82.201.000 people.

If we assume that the error rate will be 0.8% for the decade this time, instead of the 1.9% error rate between the 80s and 2001, the counted population on Census Day 2021 will be anywhere between:

81.12 Mio. and 81.54 Mio. people

Or up by 0.9 to 1.3 million compared with the 2011 Census.

[Tender Branson]

could you translate this?

Of course.

"Did you read this, Bernd ? In Germany, much fewer people are living than it was estimated."