EP elections 2014

[Tender Branson]

Tell me if you find some error, the extended data is here

Nice.

But AUT is currently a 3-way tie for 1st place according to the new Gallup poll, with the ÖVP and SPÖ projected to get 5 seats and FPÖ getting 4 seats.


But really, anything can happen.

Mmm, does Austria use d'Hondt method for the distribution of the seats? Using those numbers I get 5-4-4, for the Greens takes the 18° seat...
Still, that's a close one.

Interesting, I thought that the Greens would only get 2 seats with 14%.

But I ran the D'Hondt calculator myself now and got 4 seats each for ÖVP, SPÖ and FPÖ, 3 for the Greens and 2 for NEOS. 1 remaining seat is a tie between ÖVP and SPÖ.

[Tender Branson]

Pirates, Communists (KPÖ) and Der Wandel have signed their EP election alliance contract:



The name of the election alliance, the campaign team and the next steps (development of a joint election program) will be announced on Thursday.

A joint campaign launch convention will take place on March 1, where first candidate hearings will take place. Martin Ehrenhauser, currently a MEP, has already said that he supports this left-wing alliance. With his signature as MEP, the alliance wouldn't need to collect the 2600 signatures to be on the ballot for the EP election. But members from all 3 parties have said they will collect the signatures regardless to have/show citizen-support.

http://www.ots.at/presseaussendung/OTS_20140203_OTS0132/pressegespraech-eu-wahlallianz-zwischen-kpoe-piraten-und-wandel-praesentiert-name-team-und-fahrplan

It will be interesting if they get beyond the 4% election threshold (they got only 2% in the federal elections).

Also, would they join the GUE/NGL after the election ?

[Tender Branson]

From a German perspective it's hard to see much similarities between Pirates and Communists. So is there any reason for this beyond an attempt to pass the threshold. And could their EP members really satisfy all three groups?

Mostly passing the threshold I think.

But the Pirates and the KPÖ share some common policies like the unconditional basic income.

[Tender Branson]

They don't need to satisfy all three voter groups, because simply there won't be any.
The ÖVP will mostly likely return just 4 of the 19 MEP's.
The SPÖ maybe 4 or even just 3.
The FPÖ about 4 or even 5.
The Grüne most likely 3.
The NEOS 2.
And the other two - maybe one to Hans Peter Martin, and the other to Stronach? Or both an extra to FPÖ/SPÖ or ÖVP?

1st point: True, I don't see them getting more than 4%, or even a seat (which requires more than that).

2nd point: Do you think Martin will get a seat again ? He's currently polling only 1-2% and it's not even clear if he'll run again. Also, the Krone backed him in 2009, not this time anymore.

And the Team Stronach is now a total joke and won't achieve anything ...

It will be interesting if they get beyond the 4% election threshold (they got only 2% in the federal elections).

But even if they pass the official 4% threshold it still isn't really sure whether they really get a seat: The threshold they really have to clear will probably be around 5% with Austria only having 18 seats and using D'Hondt as the seat allocation method.
So they have basically no chance of getting a seat.

What I don't know: Is there are lower threshold to qualify for additional party funding, like we have it in Germany?

Only a party that is represented in the national parliament or state parliament gets state funding.

[Tender Branson]

Pirates, Communists (KPÖ) and Der Wandel have signed their EP election alliance contract.

The name of the election alliance, the campaign team and the next steps (development of a joint election program) will be announced on Thursday.

It's Thursday and their joint name is "Europa anders" ("Europe differently" - or - "A different Europe").

www.europaanders.at

[Tender Branson]

Caution !

Before every EP election in Germany the polls have OVERESTIMATED the SPD by a lot (mostly 4-7 points).

Take a look at the historic polls here:

http://www.wahlrecht.de/umfragen/europawahl.htm

[Tender Branson]

Direct vote for EU Commission President:



By party:

[Tender Branson]

Latest Meinungsraum/NEWS Magazine poll (online panel, sample = 800):

24% SPÖ (no change compared with 2009 elections)
23% FPÖ (+10%)
20% ÖVP (-10%)
13% NEOS (+13%)
13% Greens (+3%)
  1% HPM (-17%)
  6% Others ("A different Europe" (KPÖ/Pirates/Wandel), REKOS, BZÖ, TS, EU-STOP, etc.)

http://neuwal.com/wahlumfragen/wahlumfrage.php?uid=452

[Tender Branson]

Who is in 'others'? (-14 is a lot)

If I remember it correctly, the BNP did very well in 2009.

And a lot of minor parties I guess.

[Tender Branson]

2 polls out today:

Karmasin for Profil magazine (sample: 500)

23% SPÖ
22% ÖVP
22% FPÖ
14% Greens
12% NEOS
  2% HPM
  1% BZÖ
  1% REKOS
  3% Others

Link

Gallup for Ö24 newspaper (sample: 400)

23% FPÖ
22% SPÖ
22% ÖVP
14% Greens
13% NEOS
  2% HPM
  1% REKOS
  3% Others

Link

[Tender Branson]

The liberal NEOS have now presented their frontrunners for the EP elections:

1. Angelika Mlinar
2. Stefan Windberger
3. Anton Fink



The candidates were decided in a 3-stage process, with the first process being an online-primary in which every person who was willing to pay 10€ was able to vote. The online primary had the most weighting (something like 90%). The 2nd step was a vote by the party members. The 3rd step was a vote by the party leadership.

http://neos.eu/vorwahl-eu/ergebnisse

[Tender Branson]

Germany (FGW for ZDF):

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Only 27% of voters are very interested or interested in the EP elections. 72% are not interested or not at all interested.

53% say the information about the EP elections are not sufficient for them, 44% are ok with the info they get/have.

Also, 55% of Germans want an end to the EU-wide free movement policy and quotas similar to what Switzerland recently voted on. 41% want to keep the free movement policy for EU citizens.

http://www.forschungsgruppe.de/Aktuelles/Politbarometer

[Tender Branson]

I wonder how the pollsters do their predictions here, if only 27% of people say there are interested in the election.

Towards election day it will rise slightly, but turnout will still be low at about 35% or so.

So, is FGW and the others just releasing the voting intentions for the 27% who say they are (very) interested, or do they base their poll on ALL voters (which would be bad, since 70% of them are not voting) ?

[Tender Branson]

The BZÖ is flirting with the idea of running Jörg Haider's daughter Ulrike as their frontrunner for the EP elections.

It's official: Jörg Haider's daughter Ulrike (who's married to an Italian) will be the BZÖ's frontrunner in the EP elections, she told the "Kronen Zeitung" in an interview.



http://www.krone.at/Oesterreich/EU-Wahl_BZOe_trumpft_mit_Haiders_Tochter_auf-Politik_im_Blut-Story-394921

What does that mean ?

I doubt the BZÖ will get a seat, but you never know ...

The Haider-brand is heavily damaged right now (-> Hypo bank scandal), but there's still a decent core of Haider supporters out there.

[Tender Branson]

Could they not decide to create multimember constituencies like France or the UK then to de facto re-create a threshold?

That I wondered too.

Who will be German ally of Wilders and LePen.

None.

AfD does not want to be in a group with LePen and the others and the NPD is not allowed to join because they are too radical.

[Tender Branson]

Republikaner perhaps? (they were there actually between 1989-1994).

The "Republikaner" had some shi**y election results lately, with a downward trend.

They only got 0.2% in the federal elections, which I think is way below getting 1 seat ...

[Tender Branson]

Her website is already up as well:

www.haider2014.at

...

I'm already interested if the next EP polls show a surge for the BZÖ with Ulrike Haider as their frontrunner.

In other news, the BZÖ has now formed an alliance with the German AfD ...

[Tender Branson]

So which group will AFD and BZÖ join. EFD or ECR. It seems like Cameron will veto membership in ECR?!

I can only speak for the BZÖ, but A) first they need to get a seat (for which they need about 5.3% of the vote) and B) Ulrike Haider could then join the EFD. Why not the ECR ? Mostly because the Catholiban REKOS-list from Ewald Stadler (the MEP that was elected in 2009 for the BZÖ, but was kicked out of the party last year) is flirting with the idea of joining the ECR and has already contacts with the UK Tories.

I simply don't think that BZÖ and REKOS would be in the same group after all that happened.

[Tender Branson]

The EP election alliance between Communists, Pirates and Wandel ("A different Europe") had their founding convention today and indeed elected MEP Martin Ehrenhauser as their frontrunner.

https://twitter.com/EuropaAnders/status/439792956376375296

[Tender Branson]

All Austrian parties have now selected their lists and frontrunners for the EP elections:

ÖVP: Othmar Karas

SPÖ: Eugen Freund

FPÖ: Andreas Mölzer & Harald Vilimsky (The FPÖ has 2 frontrunners, but Mölzer is 1. on the list and Vilimsky 2. on the list, but if the FPÖ wins the election Lord Voldemort Vilimsky will be their candidate for the Austrian EU-commissioner, while Mölzer said he wants to remain a simple MEP)

Greens: Ulrike Lunacek

NEOS: Angelika Mlinar

BZÖ: Ulrike Haider

Europa Anders ("A different Europe"): Martin Ehrenhauser

REKOS: Ewald Stadler

...

Other parties, such as the Team Stronach and Hans-Peter Martin have not yet decided if they'll run or not.

The party "EU-STOP" needs to collect 2600 signatures to be on the ballot (the BZÖ too).

[Tender Branson]

All Austrian parties have now selected their lists and frontrunners for the EP elections:

ÖVP: Othmar Karas

SPÖ: Eugen Freund

FPÖ: Andreas Mölzer & Harald Vilimsky (The FPÖ has 2 frontrunners, but Mölzer is 1. on the list and Vilimsky 2. on the list, but if the FPÖ wins the election Lord Voldemort Vilimsky will be their candidate for the Austrian EU-commissioner, while Mölzer said he wants to remain a simple MEP)

Greens: Ulrike Lunacek

NEOS: Angelika Mlinar

BZÖ: Ulrike Haider

Europa Anders ("A different Europe"): Martin Ehrenhauser

REKOS: Ewald Stadler

...

Other parties, such as the Team Stronach and Hans-Peter Martin have not yet decided if they'll run or not.

The party "EU-STOP" needs to collect 2600 signatures to be on the ballot (the BZÖ too).

Infographic that I have found:

[Tender Branson]

The EP election in Austria has now been formally called by the government.

The election calendar is here:

http://www.bmi.gv.at/cms/BMI_wahlen/europawahl/2014/files/Wahlkalender_EU_Wahl_2014_LETZTFASSUNG_mit_nderungen.pdf

Until April 11 at 5pm, parties that want to be on the ballot need to submit either the signatures of 3 MPs in the Austrian National Council to the federal election commission, or 1 signature of a Member of the European Parliament, or 2600 valid signatures of eligible Austrian voters.

Only the BZÖ and the minor party called EU-STOP would need to collect signatures, all other parties are either represented in the Austrian National Council or in the EP already.

[Tender Branson]

New Gallup/Ö24 poll (click right for big version, EU poll on top of the page):



Basically the same thing as before: 3-way battle for 1st place, 2-way battle for 4th place.

The BZÖ has not gained a lot so far (2%), even with the entry of Jörg Haider-daughter Ulrike as frontrunner.

The election alliance between Communists, Pirates and Wandel called "Europa Anders" (A different Europe) is included for the first time in a poll and has just 1%.

[Tender Branson]

Juncker was just elected the EVP frontrunner at their convention in Dublin.

Juncker got 382 delegate votes, Barnier got 245.

[Tender Branson]

On May 8, the ZDF (main German TV broadcaster) and the ORF (main Austrian TV broadcaster) will host a joint TV debate between Jean-Claude Juncker, the EVP frontrunner, and Martin Schulz, the PSE frontrunner.

Ingrid Thurnher (ORF) and Peter Frey (ZDF) will moderate the debate which will be held in Berlin at the ZDF headquarters.

Juncker and Schulz have already agreed to participate in the debate:

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The debate style will be a mix of classical debate, with questions by the moderators and town-hall format, in which people from the audience (or via TV-screen) ask questions to the candidates.