EP elections 2014

[Tender Branson]

The SPÖ unveiled a really surprising frontrunner for the EU elections today: Eugen Freund



Freund is a former long time & popular ORF moderator for the main news reports (ZIB) in Austria, who quit the ORF a few weeks ago.

http://derstandard.at/1388650862389/EU-Wah-Eugen-Freund-soll-SPOe-Spitzenkandidat-werden

[Tender Branson]

I'm doing a chart soon that shows the eligible voters in each country, the total votes cast and the turnout in each EU country + the EU itself for the 2009 elections as a base for this election.

Here it is (ranked by turnout):



It should be noted that LUX, BEL, ITA, CYP and GRE still have some sort of mandatory voting in their laws, even though its mostly not enforced (many older people might still think though that it is enforced).

Also, the first column after the countries shows the Jan. 1, 2013 population in each country, but the election was in Mid-2009, so the 4th row (electorate %) is a little bit out-of-date.

I could have used 2009 population data for each country, but this is hardly a good idea because the Censuses were held in 2011 and the 2009 figures are often not revised yet.

For example, Germany's population was about 82 Mio. pre-census in 2009, but is only 80.5 Mio. post-census, a difference of 1.5 Mio. people.

All other columns are from official sources.

[Tender Branson]

No, in Italy there is not any sort of mandatory vote, it's certain.

Well, of course not enforced at all, that is sure.

But article 48.2 in the Italian constitution says that voting is a "citizenship duty", which means it's still in the law (and was enforced until 1993, for example that you couldn't get a public job in the town you live because you didn't vote).

Which means older people might still think it is that way because they have not heard otherwise.

[Tender Branson]

UK (YouGov/Sun):

32% Labour
26% UKIP
23% Tories
  9% Lib Dems

http://www.newstatesman.com/politics/2014/01/labour-remain-ahead-european-election-poll-wholl-triumph-may

[Tender Branson]

Bayern/Bavaria (Infratest dimap)



...

Hamburg (Infratest dimap)

[Tender Branson]

A good sign for UKIP is that they are 1st already among old voters, but perform worse with young voters.

Older people are more reliable to turn out than younger voters, which might push UKIP to an election day win.

[Tender Branson]

The announcement of Eugen Freund (see above) as SPÖ-frontrunner for the EP elections has pushed the SPÖ into a tie with ÖVP and FPÖ in the new Gallup poll (sample = 400, Jan. 15-16):



Link

[Tender Branson]

The BZÖ is flirting with the idea of running Jörg Haider's daughter Ulrike as their frontrunner for the EP elections:

(right-click for huge version)

[Tender Branson]

An EP election alliance between the KPÖ (Communists), the Pirate Party and the Wandel ("Change") Party is now almost a done deal, according to the political blog "neuwal.com":



http://neuwal.com/index.php/2014/01/16/wahlbuendnis-kpoe-piratenpartei-der-wandel-kooperationsvereinbarung

The 3 boards of each party will still have to sign it off, with the Pirates being the first to do so this weekend.

The 3 parties got a combined 2% in the September 2013 federal election.

It's not yet clear if MEP Martin Ehrenhauser will join them as well, they are still in talks. If he joins their left-wing platform, the platform would not need to collect 2600 signatures to be on the ballot, because Ehrenhauser's signature as a Member of the European Parliament is already enough.

[Tender Branson]

An EP election alliance between the KPÖ (Communists), the Pirate Party and the Wandel ("Change") Party is now almost a done deal, according to the political blog "neuwal.com":



http://neuwal.com/index.php/2014/01/16/wahlbuendnis-kpoe-piratenpartei-der-wandel-kooperationsvereinbarung

The 3 boards of each party will still have to sign it off, with the Pirates being the first to do so this weekend.

The 3 parties got a combined 2% in the September 2013 federal election.

It's not yet clear if MEP Martin Ehrenhauser will join them as well, they are still in talks. If he joins their left-wing platform, the platform would not need to collect 2600 signatures to be on the ballot, because Ehrenhauser's signature as a Member of the European Parliament is already enough.

The Pirate Party voted strongly in favour of the election alliance today at their convention in Graz.

Also, Martin Ehrenhauser was present at the Pirate convention as well and gave a speech, in which he said that he'll "definitely support" the alliance if it is OK'd by all 3 parties.



http://derstandard.at/1389857508314/Piraten-stimmten-fuer-Wahlbuendnis-mit-KPOe-und-Der-Wandel

[Tender Branson]

The announcement of Eugen Freund (see above) as SPÖ-frontrunner for the EP elections has pushed the SPÖ into a tie with ÖVP and FPÖ in the new Gallup poll (sample = 400, Jan. 15-16):

(pic)

Link

One week in and the SPÖ is already in big trouble, because Eugen Freund made a big blunder in a recent interview:

Freund, the frontrunner for the Social Democratic Party (a worker's party), was asked the following in the interview:

"How much do you think a (blue-collar) worker in Austria earns per month on average ?"

And Freund replied:

"I think about 3.000€"

And the journalist then told him that the average worker earns just 2000€ (maybe even less).

Freund then replied:

"Well, that's not my fault. You cannot have all these numbers in your head."

http://wirtschaftsblatt.at/home/nachrichten/oesterreich/1550990/SPO-kaut-schwer-am-Fauxpas-von-Eugen-Freund

...

This just re-inforces the image of a snobby/above-all, well-paid ORF-type that has no clue about the average worker and is only concerned to get a place at the well-paid feeding trough in Brussels. And it only helps the FPÖ, which will get even more workers from the SPÖ ... Sadly.

[Tender Branson]

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...

And now it turns out that he also got a 250.000€ dismissal pay from the ORF, plus 200.000 from a ORF corporate pension plan, after earning more than 120.000€ each year when he was still working for the ORF. Now he will get a monthly state-pension of 4000€ and when he takes over as MEP he'll earn 8000€ a month.

And Freund keeps piling up in a recent interview:

"I cannot imagine living with just the maximum state-pension of 4000€ a month. I have a certain lifestyle and I have to pay the studies of my children in the US."

Yeah, that's exactly what SPÖ voters, retired people with an average pension of 1000€ a month, like to hear from their frontrunner in the EP election ...

[Tender Branson]

That sounds very Steinbrückian to me. A candidate so out of touch with the concerns of the party's voters that he totally damages its message.

Yeah, exactly. He's Steinbrück 2.0 or even worse.

The Frankfurter Rundschau has an article about it, if you are interested:

http://www.fr-online.de/politik/eu-wahlkampf-in-oesterreich-der-rote-spitzenkandidat-und-das-liebe-geld,1472596,25953786.html

[Tender Branson]

The FPÖ is having some fun recently with Freund's statements (well, FPÖ-leader Strache is currently on a 2-week vacation on the Maledives, so the FPÖ-general secretary Kickl released this statement):

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With parties like SPÖ and ÖVP, the FPÖ can virtually chill out and coast to 1st place in May.

Sadly, but understandable ...

[Tender Branson]

European election poll for Germany (Emnid, 01/26)

CDU/CSU 42%
SPD 26%
Greens 10%
Left 8%
AfD 7%
FDP 3%

I suppose the only purpose of the poll is to push the AfD, since this poll was commissioned by BILD.

And it seems the FDP is struggling to re-enter the European Parliament even with the lowered threshold in effect. They should pray that the Consitutional Court strikes the 3% clause down as well in the coming weeks.

That AfD number does look realistic, though...

Not if you look at these recent state polls:

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=170930.msg4019866#msg4019866

[Tender Branson]

"voter registration" is a bit misleading here, because in most countries an automatic voter register exists in which people do not have to register. Which means there's a deadline when the voter list is compiled, but that includes also people eligible to vote after the deadline.

[Tender Branson]

Out of interest, which countries do not have automatic "registration"?

In the EU ?

All I guess, but I'm not 100% sure.

[Tender Branson]

Out of interest, which countries do not have automatic "registration"?

In the EU ?

All I guess, but I'm not 100% sure.

Only asking because you said "most" in your previous post

I know, but that's the problem:

I'm not 100% sure, because the voting law is not uniform EU-wide.

Do we want it to be this way (at least for EP elections a centralized voting database) ?

Don't think it would be a bad idea, especially if we European posters argue for a centralized voting system/database with uniform standards in the US too ...

[Tender Branson]

Out of interest, which countries do not have automatic "registration"?

In the EU ?

All I guess, but I'm not 100% sure.

Only asking because you said "most" in your previous post

I know, but that's the problem:

I'm not 100% sure, because the voting law is not uniform EU-wide.

Do we want it to be this way (at least for EP elections a centralized voting database) ?

Don't think it would be a bad idea, especially if we European posters argue for a centralized voting system/database with uniform standards in the US too ...

Perhaps, if the EU elections were actually in any way relevant. I wouldn't go to the trouble of standardizing everything for the farce that they are.

I just want an efficient and well-done election system in all member countries, no matter if the election itself is a farce or not ...

Technically I think it wouldn't be much of a problem setting up a EU-wide database of eligible voters: The member countries would only have to submit their national data to the EU institution, which would cross-check the national files for double-entries.

Legally on the other hand, I don't know if some national/EU laws would have to be changed for such a EU-wide database ...

[Tender Branson]

Out of interest, which countries do not have automatic "registration"?

In the EU ?

All I guess, but I'm not 100% sure.

In the UK and in Ireland voter registration is not automatic, as far as I know.

I think that in the UK the "head of the household" needs to register all people in the household with the electoral register or pay a fine of up to 2500 £.

Maybe the English posters could clarify this.

[Tender Branson]

Is this the result for Germany only, or for the whole EU ?

22.676 seems extremely low for Germany, not to mention the EU ...

[Tender Branson]

Is this the result for Germany only, or for the whole EU ?

22.676 seems extremely low for Germany, not to mention the EU ...

The whole EU. And yes, it is low.

http://www.spiegel.de/politik/deutschland/geringe-beteiligung-bei-gruenen-urwahl-zu-europa-spitzenkandidatur-a-945792.html

Well, understandable though:

If I didn't read it here that the Euro-Greens had an online-primary, I wouldn't have known either.

And I consider myself very interested in the EP elections.

The average voter on the other hand ...

[Tender Branson]

New Gallup/Ö24 poll for the EP elections (chart at the bottom of the picture):

[Tender Branson]

Team Stronach's existance seems to have no purpose. Seems like a Merger with NEOS and BZO would be a good choice, to create a truly liberal party.

Is NEOS not liberal enough for you ?



Besides, TS and BZÖ should just die, ASAP if you ask me - and not merge with anyone.

[Tender Branson]

Tell me if you find some error, the extended data is here

Nice.

But AUT is currently a 3-way tie for 1st place according to the new Gallup poll, with the ÖVP and SPÖ projected to get 5 seats and FPÖ getting 4 seats.

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=170930.msg4038510#msg4038510

But really, anything can happen.