EP elections 2014

[Tender Branson]

Using the current polls, the D'Hondt calculator shows that ÖVP and SPÖ would get 5 seats each, FPÖ 4 and Greens and NEOS 2 each.

If either NEOS or Greens drop to around 10% or lower, their 2nd seat is in danger - especially if EA manages to get to 4.7% or more.

If NEOS and Greens remain at around 12-13% and EA still manages 4.7% or more, EA would likely get their seat from whoever comes in 2nd in the election (so, either ÖVP or SPÖ).

[Tender Branson]

I decided to do some election poster-tagging and flyering for "Europa Anders" ("A different Europe") this week, mostly in my district.

In Saalfelden and Zell am See (which in EP elections are SPÖ and former Martin strongholds), I will put a ton of "Social Democrats vote differently" posters up.

It's probably a bit too late already and it won't influence many people, but maybe some late-deciders.

EA is the Austrian leftist Tsipras affiliate.

 

 

They currently are at 2-3% in the polls, so they need every help they can get ...

(Greens and NEOS have their 2 seats safely anyway)

...

Got about 100 of these posters today. Time to put them up, because it's late anyway already.

[Tender Branson]

1 day before voting starts in the UK and Netherlands, the site "PollWatch2014" is out with their final prediction:

EPP on the verge of victory

by Simon Hix and Kevin Cunningham

We forecast that the European People’s Party will hold on as the largest party in the European Parliament.  The final set of EP election polls from across Europe over this last weekend suggest that the EPP will emerge as the largest group with 217 seats (29 per cent), 16 seats ahead of the Socialists and Democrats with 201 seats (27 per cent).

While we expect the EPP to lose over 40 seats compared to 2009, over the course of this election campaign the EPP member parties have consolidated their position in many countries, in particular in Poland, Hungary, and Germany.  In contrast, while we expect S&D to make some gains since 2009, over the course of the campaign many of its parties have slipped back.  This has particularly been the case in France, the UK, Poland, and Hungary. Meanwhile, support for anti-European parties on the populist right has risen in northern Europe, especially in the UK, France and Denmark, while support for radical left parties has risen in countries that have suffered economic downturn, particularly in Greece, Spain and Ireland.

But, this outcome is not a foregone conclusion.  Taking into account the margins of error in the latest polls, and on the basis of 1000 simulations of what might happen, there still remains a 15% probability that S&D will be larger than the EPP.

Meanwhile, our final prediction is that ALDE will remain the third largest group, just ahead of GUE in fourth, with G/EFA in fifth, ECR sixth and EFD seventh.  Here is the summary table of our final forecast for each member state compared to the current make-up of the EP.

A final caveat is that these numbers do not take account of potential party switches between groups or of which groups the currently non-attached parties will eventually join – in particular where the 18-20 MEPs from Italy’s 5 Star Movement will sit.  For a final prediction taking these potential changes into account see the latest blog from the VoteWatch Europe team.

Whether looking at our final forecast based on current group membership or the potential shifts in group membership, the main trend overall will be a dramatic polarisation of the Parliament.  There will be a significant increase in the proportion of MEPs on the right of the EPP, from approximately 16% in the current Parliament to 22% in the new one, as well as a slight increase in the proportion of MEPs on the left of S&D, from 12% to 13%.

Put another way, there will be a “squeezed middle”, with the three largest groups (EPP, S&D, ALDE) down from 72% of MEPs to only 65%.  This will force EPP and S&D to work together to get anything done, since neither an EPP-led coalition without S&D nor an S&D-led coalition without EPP is likely to command a majority.

So, expect a “grand coalition” on most big issues, starting with the choice of the Commission President.  On this front, Jean-Claude Juncker is now in poll position heading into the election.

http://www.electio2014.eu/pollsandscenarios/pollsblog

Country map:

http://www.electio2014.eu/pollsandscenarios/polls

[Tender Branson]

For the German speakers/readers:

The political blog neuwal.com has released their EP Election Almanach.

It features an overview for each party incl. facts and election results, their EP election program and an interview with the frontrunners:

http://neuwal.com/walmanach/eu14/ebook/neuwal-walmanach-eu14.pdf

[Tender Branson]

Blagohair:

Romania is coloured the wrong way, the Socialists there are way ahead in the polls.

[Tender Branson]

Voted about a couple of hours ago in Birmingham and turnout was pretty good, a lot of the student population where I live were voting in groups of six or seven, of course, that's not much to go on. It's started raining here now though, and apparently there's a major thunderstorm in London which will probably depress turnout if it continues.

[Tender Branson]

Today is the last day to apply for absentee/postal ballots in person.

Tomorrow I will post the total number of requested ballots (which could be an indicator of turnout).

For Sunday, some bad news for election day turnout: The weather is projected to be great, which means many people will be out for biking or for a walk instead of voting.

[Tender Branson]

For Sunday, some bad news for election day turnout: The weather is projected to be great, which means many people will be out for biking or for a walk instead of voting.

Oh c'mon! This must be the greatest political myth of all time. Have there ever been any actual proof that weather affect turn-out except in the most extreme weather conditions? Every election you hear reports that turn-out will be down because the weather was too nice, so people went out-side instead, or too bad, so people didn't want to leave home, or too mediocre, so people didn't get in the right mood to go and vote.

I've however never seen any scientific proof that there is even correlation, let alone cause, between a certain weather and a certain turn-out.   

Don't know if there's something scientific out there to analyze these situations, but I think weather could play at least a minor role.

[Tender Branson]

Today is the last day to apply for absentee/postal ballots in person.

I will post the total number of requested ballots (which could be an indicator of turnout) later.

A total of 444.037 absentee/postal ballots have been requested, the BMI announced.

That is up from the 309.200 in the 2009 elections (+44%).

http://www.bmi.gv.at/cms/BMI_wahlen/europawahl/2014/Wahlkarten.aspx

...

This means that 6.9% of the 6.410.390 eligible voters have requested one (incl. me)

This is up from 4.9% in 2009.

...

It further means that if the race is close on Sunday, the absentees (which are counted on Monday starting at 9am), could decide the election.

[Tender Branson]

SORA's Christoph Hofinger was interviewed yesterday on the ORF and he thinks that 50% turnout is likely tomorrow, based on absentee requests and the data they get from their weekend election-day survey.

http://news.orf.at/wahl14//video/7964018.html

50% would be the highest turnout here in any EP election since 1996, when the first EP election was held.