EP elections 2014

[Tender Branson]

The ÖVP and the Greens have now finally realized that they can't ignore the new liberal NEOS party forever, without losing additional voters to them.

The Greens have put out a 10-point flyer that shows the differences between the Greens and NEOS:



...

The ÖVP meanwhile attacked a NEOS's MP for his belief in the "Flying Spaghetti Monster"-religion.

And they started ballons with "ONLY HOT AIR !" on them in front of the building where NEOS held their campaign kickoff (see below).

NEOS and also the European Liberals had their campaign launch yesterday in Vienna, with speeches from Angelika Mlinar (the Austrian frontrunner) and Guy Verhofstadt (the European frontrunner) and Olli Rehn:

[Tender Branson]

New Ireland poll (RED C survey conducted between April 28 and May 1 for the Sunday Business Post):

You must be logged in to read this quote.

http://www.breakingnews.ie/ireland/poll-shows-transfers-may-scupper-sf-in-euro-elections-629527.html

[Tender Branson]

How much will the parties spend on the EP election campaign ?

* ÖVP: 4 Mio. €
* SPÖ: 4 Mio. €
* FPÖ: 2.5-3 Mio. €
* Greens: 1.75 Mio. €
* NEOS: 1.2 Mio. €
* BZÖ: 500.000 €
* EA: 100.000 €
* EU-STOP: 10-20.000 €
* REKOS: unknown

Which means the parties will spend some 14-15 Mio. € on their campaigns (20-21 Mio. $).

Parties who enter the EP will get 12.8 Mio. € back in public financing.

http://www.vienna.at/eu-wahl-millionen-kosten-fuer-bund-und-wahlkampf-der-parteien/3949269

[Tender Branson]

What to do on a rainy Sunday afternoon ?

Yes, making the Austrian Wikipedia article about the EP elections readable and expanding it a bit.

[Tender Branson]

Swedish EP-poll by Sifo:

31,2% - Social Democrats
21,7% - Moderates
16,1% - Greens
8,1% - People's Party
5,8% - Left Party
4,1% - Sweden Democrats
3,7% - Christian Democrats
3,6% - Centre Party
3,2% - Feminist Initiative
2,2% - Pirate Party
0,3% - The June List

How reliable is Sifo ?

[Tender Branson]

Turnout could actually increase here compared with 2009, a new poll for the ÖGfE shows:

"Are you going to vote in the EP elections on May 25 ?"

48% Yes, definitely
19% Likely, yes
15% Likely not
  8% Definitely not
10% Undecided

http://www.oegfe.at/cms/uploads/media/Grafiken_EP_0414.pdf

History (also in polls taken before federal elections) shows that only those who say "I will definitely vote" and a few of those who say "likely, yes" will actually turn out.

A ÖGfE poll taken just before the 2009 elections showed the following:

39% Yes, definitely
31% Likely, yes
12% Likely not
13% Definitely not
  5% Undecided

http://www.ifes.at/sites/default/files/downloads/1243943202_PRESSEUNTERLAGE.pdf

...

Actual turnout in the election was 46% then.

Which means that there's a chance for a 50%+ turnout this year.

[Tender Branson]

The current poll also shows that Austrian voters do not think that the parties are currently discussing/treating the issues well enough that are important to voters:

30% Yes, the parties are discussing/treating them well enough
51% No

...

Which issues are most important to you in the EP election campaign ? (multiple choices possible)

19% Energy/Environment/Climate/Animal Protection/Consumer Protection
15% Social Policy/Health/Pensions
12% Migration/Asylum/Borders/EU-Enlargement
  9% Tax- and Econmic Policy/Freetrade agreement between EU/US
  9% Jobs/(Youth-)Unemployment/Wages
  9% Financial Policy/Crisis Management/Euro
  8% Education
  7% National Identity/Centralism/Bureaucracy
  5% Solidarity/United Europe
  4% Security Policy/Ukraine/Peace/Common Foreign Policy
  1% Corruption/Lobbying/Transparency
15% Other issues
28% Don't know

[Tender Branson]

From the ÖGfE poll:

"Which of these people would you vote for as Commission President ?"

18% Juncker
14% Schulz
22% None of these people
31% I don't know those names
15% Undecided/No opinion

[Tender Branson]

Found the first 2009 ORF projection for Austria on YouTube:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QUjLh2I2Io8

The first "exit poll" (actually it's not an exit poll, because it is based on already-counted precincts) was very good and almost identical to the final results.

Only the FPÖ-share was a bit too high, mostly because the FPÖ always loses big when the postal votes are counted the Monday after the election.

[Tender Branson]

McPomm (= German state) EU poll by Infratest dimap for NDR:

[Tender Branson]

3rd Green poster campaign:



"People are more important than lobbies. For clean and transparent politics." (picture features MEP Ernst Strasser from the ÖVP, recently sentenced to a prison term for lobbying and corruption)



"Monsanto, get off the field. For biological agriculture and clean energy."

(literally means though: "Monsanto, get the f**k out of the EU !")

[Tender Branson]

New Austria poll (Meinungsraum for NEWS magazine, sample=800):

24.0% ÖVP
23.0% SPÖ
21.0% FPÖ
14.0% NEOS
12.0% Greens
  1.5% EA
  1.5% BZÖ
  1.5% REKOS
  1.5% EU-STOP

http://neuwal.com/wahlumfragen/stream-eu14.php?cid=44

[Tender Branson]

So, tonight at 8:15pm on ORF1 (TV channel) the Eurovision Song Contest will be shown live - where a polarizing Austrian transvestite is singing for her entry into the Finals on Saturday.

On ORF2, a EP-debate in Berlin between Schulz and Juncker will be shown live - hosted jointly by the German ZDF TV and the Austrian ORF TV.

...

I wonder which "show" gets more viewers ...

[Tender Branson]

And I'm gonna be in front of the ZDF studio in Berlin as part of a Green party protest against the exclusion of the "smaller" parties from the debate.

Not gonna watch the debate myself, because it's probably gonna be boring.

I'll probably watch some of the debate, then switch over to the Song Contest - to see how many points our Conchita gets from the homophobic Eastern European countries ...

[Tender Branson]

ÖVP/EPP ad:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_PzHIwy-VO8

Not bad, music is horrible though (at least from minute 1 onwards) ...

[Tender Branson]

Live streams of the debate between Schulz and Juncker (starts in ca. 1 hour and 20 minutes):

ORF

ZDF

[Tender Branson]

Live streams of the debate between Schulz and Juncker (starts in ca. 1 hour and 20 minutes):

ORF

ZDF

Good debate so far, first Ukraine now immigration and asylum.

[Tender Branson]

New Unique Research poll for "Heute" newspaper (sample = 800):



(click right for HUGE version)

There's still a battle for 1st place between ÖVP and SPÖ, but the FPÖ is gaining right now after slumping to 18% a few weeks ago due to the Mölzer-scandal.

Greens and NEOS are battling it out for 4th place, while the leftist Europa Anders is once again at 3%.

REKOS, BZÖ and EU-STOP are still without any chance to get a seat in the EP.

41% say they will "definitely vote" in the election. That is stable relative to previous polls.

[Tender Branson]

So, tonight at 8:15pm on ORF1 (TV channel) the Eurovision Song Contest will be shown live - where a polarizing Austrian transvestite is singing for her entry into the Finals on Saturday.

On ORF2, a EP-debate in Berlin between Schulz and Juncker will be shown live - hosted jointly by the German ZDF TV and the Austrian ORF TV.

...

I wonder which "show" gets more viewers ...

Song Contest beats EP-debate by more than 2-1 !

* 800.000 Austrians watched the Song Contest yesterday
* 330.000 Austrians watched the EP debate between Schulz and Juncker

[Tender Branson]

For the Danish posters here:

http://news.orf.at/wahl14//video/7889460.html

"Election Drive" with Morten Messerschmidt (Danish People's Party) and Renata Alt (Slovak Liberal).

"Election Drive" is a show from the Austrian ORF, which features a journalist driving around Europe with top politicians and interviews them while driving.

[Tender Branson]

2nd NEOS poster campaign:



* Erasmus for all
* Transparent EU
* Make Europe fit for our grandchildren
* Clear the way for start-ups
* Start working hard for Europe

[Tender Branson]

I wonder, weither "enkelfit" even exists as a German word. But I was not able to imagine what a "Bergrat" could be, so maybe. ;-)

"enkelfit" is a fabricated word from NEOS I guess (but others might have used it before too).

But yeah, I have never heard the word before either ...

And what's a "Bergrat" ?

[Tender Branson]

A title for a high-level mining Beamter, that is still used in Austria. I once learnt that in an article about the Austrian addiction to titles. There are even Bergräte h.c. ;-)

Ah, ok ...

Since mining these days has almost died out here (only in Styria) - it's easy why I didn't know that term.

Maybe this term is from the 1500s to 1800s, when mining was more common here.

[Tender Branson]

The vote counts from all countries will be announced after 11pm on May 25, even for countries that are voting days earlier. Only exit polls can be released before 11pm on May 25:

You must be logged in to read this quote.

[Tender Branson]

The European Commission is deluded. But then that's really not news by this point.

The commission isn't the one to blame here: The Netherlands, UK etc. could just hold the election on Sunday, just like the normal countries ...