EP elections 2014

[Tender Branson]

The preliminary number of eligible voters in Austria:

6.409.612 (up from 6.362.761 in the 2009 elections)

http://www.bmi.gv.at/cms/BMI_wahlen/europawahl/2014/WahlberechtigteE.aspx

Carinthia was the only state where the number of eligible voters went down.

[Tender Branson]

Unless the election is different to what the polls show right now, these are our people in the next EP (2014-19):

ÖVP (5 seats)

* Othmar Karas
* Elisabeth Köstinger
* Paul Rübig
* Claudia Schmidt
* Heinz Becker

SPÖ (5 seats)

* Eugen Freund
* Evelyn Regner
* Jörg Leichtfried
* Karin Kadenbach
* Josef Weidenholzer

FPÖ (4 seats)

* Harald Vilimsky
* Franz Obermayr
* Georg Mayer
* Barbara Kappel

NEOS (2 seats)

* Angelika Mlinar
* Stefan Windberger

Greens (2 seats)

* Ulrike Lunacek
* Michel Reimon

[Tender Branson]

New Gallup/Ö24 poll (sample = 400, April 8-10):



83% like the fact that Mölzer stepped down as FPÖ-frontrunner and candidate.

42% say that Mölzer damaged the FPÖ's election chances, 47% disagree.

http://www.oe24.at/oesterreich/politik/FP-Absturz-nach-dem-Moelzer-Skandal/139212988

[Tender Branson]

FPÖ releases first poster campaign:



"We understand your anger. Too much EU isn't good for anyone."

"On Mya 25 - FPÖ. Object lesson for EU & Red-Black."



"Freedom instead of EU-coercions."



"Austria thinks differently. Too much EU is dumb."



"Austria First. Then the EU."

[Tender Branson]

The isolationist/direct-democracy party "EU-STOP" has actually managed to collect all 2.600 signatures to be on the ballot !

http://www.eustop.at

They will be the 9th party on the ballot.

No word about the "Monarchists", but today at 5pm is the deadline for submitting the signatures.

[Tender Branson]

First 3 NEOS posters:



"We look beyond the horizon."

"Aim for the stars."

"Re-invent Europe."

[Tender Branson]

The deadline for submitting the 2600 signatures for a party to be on the Austrian ballot has ended 20 minutes ago.

The Interior Ministry has already announced which parties have qualified:

- BZÖ - Liste Mag. Werthmann [BZÖ]

- Die Grünen - Die Grüne Alternative [GRÜNE]

- Die Reformkonservativen - Liste Ewald Stadler [REKOS]

- EU-Austritt, Direkte Demokratie, Neutralität (EU-STOP) [EUSTOP]

- Europa anders - KPÖ, Piratenpartei, Wandel und Unabhängige [ANDERS]

- Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs (FPÖ) - Die Freiheitlichen [FPÖ]

- NEOS Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum [NEOS]

- Österreichische Volkspartei - Liste Othmar Karas [ÖVP]

- Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs [SPÖ]

http://www.ots.at/presseaussendung/OTS_20140411_OTS0214/europawahl-2014

[Tender Branson]

The FPÖ drops to 18% in the latest "Profil" poll by Unique Research:

26% ÖVP
24% SPÖ
18% FPÖ
14% NEOS
13% Greens
  5% Others

FPÖ loses 4-5% in the last few weeks ...

http://www.profil.at/articles/1415/980/374271/umfrage-eu-wahl-fpoe

[Tender Branson]

The isolationist/direct-democracy party "EU-STOP" has actually managed to collect all 2.600 signatures to be on the ballot !

http://www.eustop.at

They will be the 9th party on the ballot.

EU-STOP will join the EFD group, if they get a seat in the election.

http://www.eustop.at/partner.html

[Tender Branson]

Tomorrow at 11am, the first ORF debate between the frontrunners of the "small parties" takes place.

Martin Ehrenhauser - Europa Anders (Left-wing)
Angelika Werthmann - BZÖ (Right-wing)
Ewald Stadler - REKOS (Right-wing)
Robert Marschall - EU-STOP (Right-wing, isolationist)

http://tv.orf.at/program/orf2/20140413/709880001/376608

[Tender Branson]

Tomorrow at 11am, the first ORF debate between the frontrunners of the "small parties" takes place.

Martin Ehrenhauser - Europa Anders (Left-wing)
Angelika Werthmann - BZÖ (Right-wing)
Ewald Stadler - REKOS (Right-wing)
Robert Marschall - EU-STOP (Right-wing, isolationist)

http://tv.orf.at/program/orf2/20140413/709880001/376608

Ehrenhauser walked out of the debate about 5 minutes in, after he wanted to make an argument about the massive spying activities in Europe.

The ORF moderator interrupted him about 100 times because he actually wanted to know why Ehrenhauser was running for Martin's List in 2009 but now for "Europe Differently", so that Ehrenhauser wasn't able to finish his comment.

Then he walked out and didn't come back ...

Also, Stadler had a good debate performance for his REKOS Catholiban outfit.

The EU-STOP guy talked about how Austria needs to get out of the EU and become some isolationist island.

The BZÖ-woman was just there, but who cares ? The BZÖ is dead.

Bad news for all: Nobody watches an EU-election debate at 11am on a Sunday (only political nerds).

[Tender Branson]

The EU-STOP guy was really Cartman-like during the debate today:

The ORF moderator told viewers that the EU-STOP guy (called Marschall) is the editor of an online newspaper where he sometimes writes his personal opinion as well.

He also has a column in which he rates public Vienna swimming pools/centers.

But he rates them like this:

"...this swimming pool is frequented by a high share of native Austrians." (which is another meaning for "has few foreigners")

or

"...this swimming center is frequented by many people, also with a small share of native Austrians." (which means a lot of foreigners are there)

He then said that these "columns are very popular".



Remember Cartman and his waterpark ?

http://www.southparkstudios.com/clips/256710/not-my-waterpark

[Tender Branson]

Martin Ehrenhauser (frontrunner of the leftist "Europa Anders" list of Communists, Pirates & Wandel) is now camping in front of the Federal Chancellor's Office and spent the night there to protest the HYPO bank rescue and austerity measures in general (here and accross Europe).





Yesterday, he walked out of the ORF debate, said "he wants to stand up and make a statement" and that he won't leave the Federal Chancellor Office.

At least all the media is now reporting about him ...

http://derstandard.at/1397302000056/Ich-moechte-einfach-in-die-Koepfe-der-Leute-reindringen

Let's see if this protest means anything in terms of poll support in the next weeks ...

[Tender Branson]

The "Wiener Zeitung" now has their "election helper" out (you need to answer 30 questions and it shows you which of the 9 parties you are closest to):

http://wahlhelfer.wienerzeitung.at

I got "Europa anders" on top, FPÖ last.

[Tender Branson]

The "Wiener Zeitung" now has their "election helper" out (you need to answer 30 questions and it shows you which of the 9 parties you are closest to):

http://wahlhelfer.wienerzeitung.at

I got "Europa anders" on top, FPÖ last.

If you copy the questions into Google Translate or Bing Translate, English-speaking etc. posters can take part too !

(Also make sure to rate how important the topic is for you, which always pops up after you clicked an answer to the question).

[Tender Branson]

Gerald Keuzer (SPÖ)

Who is this ?

Never heard of this guy.

[Tender Branson]

Gerald Keuzer (SPÖ)

Who is this ?

Never heard of this guy.

You should know that Kreuzer better than me. It's just a silly typing error, very common on the other hand.

Maybe some candidate way back on the SPÖ list ...

[Tender Branson]

My Electio results:

EU-wide candidates (top matches)

Caroline Saal - 80% - Greens/EFA - Belgium
Jean-Paul Besset - 76% - Greens/EFA - France
Jason Kitcat - 76% - Greens/EFA - UK
Lorena Müller - 76% - Confederación Pirata - Spain
Ana Luisa Texeira - 76% - Greens/EFA - Luxembourg

EU-wide fractions (top matches)

64% Greens/EFA
64% GUE-NGL
62% S&D
38% ALDE/ADLE
36% EPP

Austrian candidates (top matches)

Gerhard Kilga - 74% - SPÖ
Lukas Daniel Klausner - 74% - Europa Anders
Ulrike Lunacek - 73% - Greens
Thomas Waitz - 72% - Greens
Martin Gössl - 70% - SPÖ

Austrian fractions (top matches)

74% Europa Anders
70% Liste Martin (why are they still included ?)
64% Greens
64% FPÖ (!!!, what the f**k ?)
50% SPÖ

[Tender Branson]

First Europa Anders (Europe Differently) posters (they will print and set up 3.000 posters in mostly the biggest cities in Austria, hardly any in the rural areas - which means we can expect a much bigger percentage for the leftist list in urban areas rather than rural ones):



"Social Democrats vote differently."



"For a Europe of people, instead of banks."



"HYPO bailout boycott. No taxpayer money for banks."



"We can do things differently."

[Tender Branson]

If anyone's gaining here in the final 5 weeks, I think it will be:

* Europa Anders (because Ehrenhauser's protest is gaining some traction and he's been in the media lately, so they could get 3-4%)

* EU-STOP (the same as EA, they have been on the ORF news yesterday at 10pm, which is watched by 800.000 people. Because many people might simply vote for them because they see "EU-STOP" written on the ballot, they could get 3-4% too)

* NEOS (will mostly gain because they are a new party and "unused"/without a scandal so far. But I don't think they will do as well as Martin did in 2009, so basically about 12-15% - mostly from ex-Green and ex-ÖVP voters)

...

Parties that will likely do worse than expected:

* ÖVP (loses voters to NEOS)
* SPÖ (loses voters to EA)
* FPÖ (loses voters to EU-STOP & REKOS)
* Greens (loses voters to NEOS and EA)
* BZÖ (loses voters to the non-voter column)

Parties that will neither lose nor gain in the next weeks:

* REKOS (I think they will stay at around 1-2%)

[Tender Branson]

What test are you guys taking?

www.electio2014.eu

[Tender Branson]

Is Europa Anders the German equivalent of the Tsipras List or something different altogether?

Europa Anders is the Austrian equivalent of the Tsipras List, not the German one ...

Martin Ehrenhauser recently said in an interview with the "Standard":

You must be logged in to read this quote.

derStandard.at: Do you see yourself as to the left of the SPÖ ?

Ehrenhauser: Yes, definitely. We support the European frontrunner of the European Left, Alexis Tsipras. And he supports us. We are part of the European Left.

http://derstandard.at/1397302000056/Ich-moechte-einfach-in-die-Koepfe-der-Leute-reindringen

[Tender Branson]

Green Party posters are out:



"For a life before the Schnitzel. Against the power of the agriculture companies. For our bio-agriculture."



"Better to save people, instead of banks. For solidarity and humanity."



"For bent cucumbers - against shady deals/business. Economy also works without greed."

[Tender Branson]

The party ranking on the Austrian ballot will look like this:

  1 - ÖVP
  2 - SPÖ
  3 - "EMPTY" (because Hans-Peter Martin is not running anymore)
  4 - FPÖ
  5 - Greens
  6 - BZÖ
  7 - NEOS
  8 - REKOS
  9 - Europa Anders
10 - EU-STOP

...

I wonder how many people will actually "vote" for "EMPTY" ...

(Well, actually they cannot vote for "EMPTY" because there's no circle in the column to make a cross. So, every "vote" in the column with the name "EMPTY" will be recorded as an invalid vote. But the "vote" still counts for turnout.)

[Tender Branson]

2nd poster wave from the ÖVP:



"A better Europe creates jobs through growth."
"That's what I work for. Beyond party barriers (or: reaching across the aisle)."
"Othmar Karas - Vice President of the European Parliament."

(notice that the ÖVP-logo is once again missing in this one ...)



"ÖVP - For a better Europe."
"A better Europe: Creates work through Growth. Guarantees Peace. Secures the Future of the Youth."