EP elections 2014

[Tender Branson]

Eleonore Habsburg (19) now looks like this (on the left):



I guess she would be next in line for the Crown after her father Karl.

[Tender Branson]

Ferdinand, the 2nd oldest of the kids, now looks like this (on the picture with his mom):



Gloria, the youngest & her older sister Eleonore in a Luis Vuitton shop:

[Tender Branson]

Wikipedia actually says that Ferdinand would be next in line after his father - not his older sister.

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I'm not exactly sure why it is that way, because we once had a Queen already with Maria Theresia.

Maybe it was later changed to male-only ?

I don't know enough about this monarchist stuff ...

[Tender Branson]

Austria EP poll average for March (5 polls from 5 different pollsters):

24.0 ÖVP
23.0 SPÖ
21.2 FPÖ
12.4 NEOS
12.4 Greens
  1.2 BZÖ
  1.2 Team Stronach (* unclear if they'll run)
  1.2 HP Martin (* has already announced he's not running again)
  0.8 Europa Anders
  0.4 REKOS
  2.2 Others (EU-STOP, Monarchists *pending signatures)

[Tender Branson]

If it's allowed for me as a new member, I would have some questions to the members of the forum on specific national issues :

Austria

Will the Team Strochnach compete ? What are the chances of the BZÖ and Stadlers new Reformconservatives? Is there a chance of Reunfication with the FPÖ after the elections?

Thanks in advance for your advice. The other countries next time.

Team Stronach:

We'll know that in the next 2 weeks: On April 11, at 5pm at the latest, the party lists need to be handed in at the Interior Ministry.

BZÖ/Stadler:

According to the polls 1-3%, well below what is required for a seat. And I don't think they will gain much traction, because neither the BZÖ nor Stadler has the money to compete. Unless they find a future topic where they can gain some points ...

Reunfication with the FPÖ:

Hell no ! The FPÖ doesn't want anything to do anymore with Stadler and the Haider-people. Not when the Hypo scandal (that was basically started by Haider and a few others) is the dominating domestic topic right now.

...

Welcome to the Forum by the way

[Tender Branson]

New poll for "Heute" by Unique Research (sample = 800):



FPÖ drops to below 20% for the first time, nice ... hopefully it lasts.



http://www.heute.at/news/politik/art23660,1000423

[Tender Branson]

It's also the first time the liberal NEOS has 14% support in an EP poll.

With their continuing trend upward and the FPÖ struggling to attract protest voters because of Mölzer's racist/nazi-rants, I think NEOS could actually achieve a HP Martin-like result of 18% in this election.

[Tender Branson]

The Sweden Democrats might leave the planned Far-Right group (called EAF) because the recent "n-conglomerate/Third Reich/anti-David Alaba"-rants from FPÖ's Mölzer are "not tolerable" for them:

http://derstandard.at/1395363930520/Moelzers-Aussagen-fuer-Schwedendemokraten-nicht-tolerierbar



Excellent. It's better that this Far-Right group is never established anyway.

[Tender Branson]

[Tender Branson]

The Sweden Democrats might leave the planned Far-Right group (called EAF) because the recent "n-conglomerate/Third Reich/anti-David Alaba"-rants from FPÖ's Mölzer are "not tolerable" for them:

http://derstandard.at/1395363930520/Moelzers-Aussagen-fuer-Schwedendemokraten-nicht-tolerierbar



Excellent. It's better that this Far-Right group is never established anyway.

I don't think you understand how baffling it is to see the Sweden Democrats actually draw the line someone. The statement is from their most extreme MP, even, who regularly talks about "people exchanges" and other unpleasantries.

Or: Maybe it was just an alibi-statement from the Sweden Democrats ...

They say they don't agree with the comments because they don't want to piss off their moderate voters.

But what they think in reality is probably not much different than the views Mölzer has ...

[Tender Branson]

Apparently heavy infighting within the FPÖ right now about the Nazi/Racism/Anti-David Alaba comments by Andreas Mölzer ...

FPÖ-leader Strache said he "doesn't like at all" the comments by Mölzer against the popular black footballer David Alaba, because Strache "is a big fan of him" and the "FPÖ is a patriotic party".

Other party members don't like all his recent comments in general, fearing that the party could lose considerable support in the next weeks (similar to what happened with Barbara Rosenkranz in the 2010 Presidential Election).

But it's not so easy to get rid of Mölzer: Mölzer is a long-time and die-hard FPÖ-politician who often defended Strache against others, and appeals to the very far-right segment of the party.

He's also the editor of the far-right newspaper "Zur Zeit", which also published the anti-Alaba article and appeals to the far-right fraternities. If Mölzer is axed, the newspaper could report badly about Strache ...

Also, his son - Wendelin Mölzer - is a current MP in the Austrian Parliament, who - if his father is axed - could become an uncomfortable backbencher for Strache and the party.

Also, campaign posters with Mölzer have already been printed - worth a few millions.

But: If the FPÖ really has the balls to get rid of Mölzer, they have until April 11 at 5pm, which is the deadline to submit the party lists for the EP elections to the Interior Ministry.

http://derstandard.at/1395364387850/Strache-gegen-beleidigende-Formulierungen-in-Moelzers-Heft

[Tender Branson]

New OGM poll for the "Kurier" newspaper (sample = 776):



"Should the FPÖ-politician Andreas Mölzer step down because of his comments likening the EU to the Third Reich ?"

67% Yes
17% No
16% Undecided

(among FPÖ voters only)

24% Yes
53% No
23% Undecided

http://kurier.at/politik/eu/fpoe-moelzer-wird-zu-straches-hypothek/59.192.523

47% of FPÖ voters either wanting his resignation or being "no comment" should be alarming for Strache ...

[Tender Branson]

Signature collection update:

* Europa Anders ("A different Europe" - Communists, Pirates, Wandel): Completed (2.600/2.600)

* BZÖ: 2.457/2.600

* EU-STOP: 1.750/2.600

* SGA/Monarchists: 1.600/2.600

http://derstandard.at/1395364379809/Drei-Parteien-sammeln-noch-Unterstuetzungserklaerungen

BZÖ will easily get the signatures needed, but the other 2 only have 5 days left to collect them.

Doesn't look good for them ...

[Tender Branson]

Pressure is piling up on FPÖ's frontrunner for the EP elections, Andreas Mölzer, to step down:

* Austrian President Fischer today called for Mölzer to step down and said his comments crossed a line.

* The FPÖ leaders of Tyrol and Burgenland distanced themselves from the comments (but did not call for his resignation).

* 20.000 Austrians have signed an online petition that supports Mölzer's indictment for incitement of hatred.

* Austrian FPÖ-leader Strache has called a personal 4-eye-meeting with Mölzer today and asked the FPÖ-board to deal with the issue on Wednesday (on Friday at 5pm the federal candidate lists for the EP elections need to be handed in at the Interior Ministry) ...

http://derstandard.at/1395364501926/Bundespraesident-Fischer-fordert-Rueckzug-Moelzers

[Tender Branson]

You could just change to open list system where people can vote who thet will, like in ordinary countries.

I have 2 problems with your post:

* A) you are saying Austria is no "ordinary" country ... ?

* B) Austria in fact uses an open list system, in which voters can cast a preference vote for any candidate on that party list. If a candidate receives more than 5% of its party's share in the election, the candidate will be moved up to 1st place on the list. If more candidates receive more than 5%, the one with the bigger amount of preference votes gets ranked 1st.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Open_list#List_of_countries_with_open_list_proportional_representation

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http://www.bmi.gv.at/cms/BMI_wahlen/europawahl/Ueberblick.aspx

[Tender Branson]

Nice info chart:

[Tender Branson]

Alternative info graphic (right-click for huge resolution):

[Tender Branson]

Pressure is piling up on FPÖ's frontrunner for the EP elections, Andreas Mölzer, to step down:

* Austrian President Fischer today called for Mölzer to step down and said his comments crossed a line.

* The FPÖ leaders of Tyrol and Burgenland distanced themselves from the comments (but did not call for his resignation).

* 20.000 Austrians have signed an online petition that supports Mölzer's indictment for incitement of hatred.

* Austrian FPÖ-leader Strache has called a personal 4-eye-meeting with Mölzer today and asked the FPÖ-board to deal with the issue on Wednesday (on Friday at 5pm the federal candidate lists for the EP elections need to be handed in at the Interior Ministry) ...

http://derstandard.at/1395364501926/Bundespraesident-Fischer-fordert-Rueckzug-Moelzers

...

The best news of the day:



"Mölzer (FPÖ) steps down as EP-frontrunner."

http://derstandard.at/1395364560922/Moelzer-zieht-sich-als-FPOe-Spitzenkandidat-zurueck

YESSS !!!

[Tender Branson]

Pressure is piling up on FPÖ's frontrunner for the EP elections, Andreas Mölzer, to step down:

* Austrian President Fischer today called for Mölzer to step down and said his comments crossed a line.

* The FPÖ leaders of Tyrol and Burgenland distanced themselves from the comments (but did not call for his resignation).

* 20.000 Austrians have signed an online petition that supports Mölzer's indictment for incitement of hatred.

* Austrian FPÖ-leader Strache has called a personal 4-eye-meeting with Mölzer today and asked the FPÖ-board to deal with the issue on Wednesday (on Friday at 5pm the federal candidate lists for the EP elections need to be handed in at the Interior Ministry) ...

http://derstandard.at/1395364501926/Bundespraesident-Fischer-fordert-Rueckzug-Moelzers

...

The best news of the day:



"Mölzer (FPÖ) steps down as EP-frontrunner."

http://derstandard.at/1395364560922/Moelzer-zieht-sich-als-FPOe-Spitzenkandidat-zurueck

YESSS !!!

Mölzer is not only stepping down as FPÖ-frontrunner in the EP election, but also stepping down as a candidate for the election.

Which means he won't be on the FPÖ list at all.

Excellent stuff.

(Theoretically, he could launch a list on his own until Friday - but I guess he won't do that.)

[Tender Branson]

Team Stronach will NOT run in the EP elections, party leader Kathrin Nachbaur said today:

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http://derstandard.at/1395364606981/Nachbaur-Die-Neos-sind-ein-moderner-Maennerklub

[Tender Branson]

Breaking News (no joke): Ulrike Haider, daughter of the late Jörg Haider, just stepped down as BZÖ frontrunner for the EP elections.

WTF is going on today ?

[Tender Branson]

Breaking News (no joke): Ulrike Haider, daughter of the late Jörg Haider, just stepped down as BZÖ frontrunner for the EP elections.

WTF is going on today ?

Source:

http://mobil.derstandard.at/1395364664088/Haider-Quercia-legt-BZOe-Kandidatur-zurueck

This might be one of the best days in recent years, politically speaking ...

* Mölzer (Nazi and Racist) steps down, leaving the FPÖ to lick their wounds
* Haider steps down, leaving the BZÖ as an even bigger joke party
* Team Stronach is not running, continues its joke status
* EU top court rules against mass data storage
* ÖVP agrees to bring civil unions more in line with hetero marriages

[Tender Branson]

Breaking News (no joke): Ulrike Haider, daughter of the late Jörg Haider, just stepped down as BZÖ frontrunner for the EP elections.

WTF is going on today ?

Source:

http://mobil.derstandard.at/1395364664088/Haider-Quercia-legt-BZOe-Kandidatur-zurueck

This might be one of the best days in recent years, politically speaking ...

* Mölzer (Nazi and Racist) steps down, leaving the FPÖ to lick their wounds
* Haider steps down, leaving the BZÖ as an even bigger joke party
* Team Stronach is not running, continues its joke status
* EU top court rules against mass data storage
* ÖVP agrees to bring civil unions more in line with hetero marriages

All that will help the FPÖ. I have seen Ukrike Haider (BZÖ) on ORF ZiB2 where she did incredibly bad. Team Stronach is dead since Frank Stronch went back to Canada. So both populist movements are dead and no competitors for the FPÖ anymore. For euroskeptical voters there is now just only one party left.

Yeah, I think this is the right analysis. Parties win support for a reason, and just because everyone doesn't like the kind of people who vote FPÖ, that doesn't mean they go away. Even if the FPÖ only take 0.5% from Team Stronach and 1% from the BZÖ, that could help them win an extra seat, while neither Team Stronach nor the BZÖ could have hoped to win any. Meanwhile, nationally, it cements FPÖ organisation for future elections.

There is also another option in this election: FPÖ-voters are sitting it out and the party only gets something like 18%. BZÖ- and Stronach-voters don't necessarily vote for the FPÖ, they might also stay home.

Another possibility is that these frustrated voters are now voting for NEOS, which is an "unused" party that has not made any mistakes yet. Even though they are strongly pro-Europe, they could still attract a few protest voters, who simply don't care if they are pro-Europe or not, just to show their anger with recent events and with the government.

Anyway, Harald "Voldemort" Vilimsky is now the new (sole) frontrunner for the FPÖ:

[Tender Branson]

The latest EU-wide projections now show a dead-heat between the EPP and the Social Democrats, with both having around 200-220 seats.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/European_Parliament_election,_2014#Opinion_polls

Until recently, the Social Democrats were ahead by quite a bit but the EPP has now closed the gap.

[Tender Branson]

If I had to make a prediction right now:

26% ÖVP (-4%)
23% SPÖ (-1%)
18% FPÖ (+5%)
16% NEOS (+16%)
13% Greens (+3%)
  2% Europa Anders (+2%)
  1% REKOS (+1%)
  1% BZÖ (-4%)

Turnout: 45% (-1%)