EP elections 2014

[Tender Branson]

ATV Austria Trend (sample = 1000):



Projected turnout: 40% (-6%)

http://atv.at/contentset/184821-atv-oesterreich-trend

[Tender Branson]

Are the FPÖ and the Greens on a tangible downward trend or is this just the MoE ?

I mean for the EP election, cause I just saw the national polls and wow... I did nazi that coming.

The poll includes also TS and Martin, who have not yet said if they are running or not. There's some potential for more FPÖ protest support. But yeah, the FPÖ does currently better in national polls because of the HYPO-bank debate that's the main domestic topic now. In the EP elections, many FPÖ voters are simply staying home because the FPÖ does not advocate an EU-exit anymore.

Greens could be down slightly because NEOS is sucking votes away from them.

MoE applies for all parties ...

[Tender Branson]

ÖVP has first (non-saying) posters out:





On the other hand it's probably effective that they did not include the ÖVP-logo on the Othmar Karas poster, because Karas is well known and more popular than the party.

[Tender Branson]

After the 1st of 4 weeks of signature-collecting, the BZÖ already has 1200 of 2600 signatures.

The leftist "Europa Anders" alliance between Communists, Pirates and Wandel has 700.

[Tender Branson]

New Market/Standard poll:

23% ÖVP
22% FPÖ
21% SPÖ
15% Greens
12% NEOS
  2% Europa Anders
  2% BZÖ
  2% TS
  1% Others

Projected turnout: 47% (who say they are certain to vote), +1% compared with 2009

http://derstandard.at/1392688397050/Umfrage-OeVP-hat-bei-EU-Wahl-Chance-auf-Platz-eins

[Tender Branson]

Latest Profil poll by Unique Research (*):

26% ÖVP
23% SPÖ
20% FPÖ
13% NEOS
11% Greens
  3% Martin
  0% TS ("Das Team Stronach würde derzeit niemand wählen." )
  4% Others

42% of those polled say they will vote in the EP election.

http://www.profil.at/articles/1412/980/373663/umfrage-oevp-eu-wahl-platz

...

(*) Unique Research is a new pollster founded just a few weeks ago by Peter Hajek and Josef Kalina, a former SPÖ-member and speaker for the Chancellor, who is now active in media marketing and now polling.

Profil newspaper (and also Heute newspaper) have previously used Karmasin Motivforschung as their pollster. But Karmasin Motivforschung was owned by Sophie Karmasin, who was appointed federal minister for Families and Youth by the ÖVP. Which means both newspapers dumped their pollster, so that they do not appear "biased".

(It should be noted though that Karmasin polls never had any bias for the ÖVP before and Sophie Karmasin has meanwhile stepped down as CEO of the company and sold her stakes in the company to her husband who's the new CEO).

Also, just because Josef Kalina (a former SPÖ member) is now the founder of Unique Research it doesn't mean that the pollster is biased towards the SPÖ. In fact, their poll has the ÖVP leading and the SPÖ 3 points back.

http://www.salzburg.com/nachrichten/oesterreich/politik/sn/artikel/gemeinsame-marktforschung-von-kalina-und-hajek-99023

[Tender Branson]

New Gallup/Ö24 poll:



(Note: The crosstabs on top of the image are for the federal elections poll)

The 2 charts below the crosstabs are the EU voting intentions. The first chart shows voting intentions among all people surveyed. The 2nd chart is only "likely voters", those who say they are either "certain" or "likely" to vote in the EU elections.

67% of those polled say they are either "certain" or "likely" to vote in the EU elections.

ÖVP-voters are the most likely to vote (88%), followed by SPÖ-voters (74%) and FPÖ-voters (just 62%). No data for Greens or NEOS-voters in the article.

Link

[Tender Branson]

Does that Austrian poll say that 50% of working-class voters will choose the FPÖ?

Yes, but these crosstabs are for the federal election, not the EU election.

And the poll sample is only 400, so any crosstab is basically useless because of the high margin of error.

...

Besides, the number is too high for the FPÖ: In the much bigger sampled SORA exit poll after the 2013 elections, the breakdown among "working class voters" was:

33% FPÖ
24% SPÖ
18% ÖVP
10% TS
  5% BZÖ
  5% Greens
  3% NEOS
  3% Others

As we have seen in other countries (France e.g.), the Far-Right/FPÖ has now overtaken the Social Democrats among blue-collar workers. But the FPÖ is unlikely to be near 50% with them.

Also: "blue collar workers" are a vanishing subset in the Austrian labour market. Most are now white-collar employees. The industry only accounts for 20-25% of the GDP/employment anymore.

[Tender Branson]

MEP Hans-Peter Martin will announce at a press conference on Wednesday if he'll run again or not:

http://derstandard.at/1395362991550/Martin-will-Mittwoch-Entscheidung-ueber-Antritt-bekannt-geben

That means we only have to wait for the Team Stronach to announce if they run or not. They have until April 11 to file their candidacy.

I think Martin will run again, but not the Team Stronach. But it would be good if the TS were in the race too, because both Martin and TS would suck protest voters away from the FPÖ. If both of them running means that the FPÖ only gets 18% instead of 20-25%, I'm all for it.

[Tender Branson]

FPÖ-frontrunner Mölzer is in BIG trouble:



At a podium discussion on Feb. 18 with the title "How the project EU destroys Europe", Mölzer said:

"The EU is a dictatorship, the Third Reich was liberal and informal instead."

and in the debate about the future of Europe he said:

"... and it's a question about the work ethic what will eventually become of Europe: Either we are turning into a n conglomerate, total chaos, I say this now politically brutually incorrect. Where chaos is increasing, where mass immigration, where institutional chaos, where confused corporate interests ..."

http://wien.orf.at/news/stories/2637994

Problem for him: Someone in the audience taped the discussion and sent the tape to the German "Süddeutsche Zeitung", which published it ...

Mölzer denies that he said this (he said he didn't say "n conglomerate" at that debate, but rather "necrophile conglomerate"). This is totally wrong, because in the link there's the audio file and he clearly said "n conglomerate".

Waiting for his fall now ... hopefully at least.

[Tender Branson]

English article about it:

Austrian politician compares EU with 3rd Reich

The leader of Austria's Jewish community called on a right-wing politician to drop his campaign for re-election to the European Parliament after he was quoted as likening the European Union to the Third Reich in Nazi Germany.

Andreas Moelzer, co-lead candidate for Austria's far-right Freedom Party (FPO) in the May EU election, made headlines when a German paper quoted him as calling the EU a dictatorship that made the Third Reich look "informal and liberal" by comparison.

The Third Reich "certainly did not have as many rules and regulations, commandments and bans," the Sueddeutsche Zeitung's magazine quoted him as telling a gathering in Vienna last month.

Jewish leader Oskar Deutsch said on Monday Moelzer's refusal to distance himself from the comment showed he was apparently unable to come to grips with the fact that proponents of extreme-right thought shared responsibility for Nazi crimes.

"Such people may not represent Austria in Europe, so Moelzer should draw the consequences and withdraw his candidacy," Deutsch said in a statement.

Moelzer did not immediately respond to an email and a message left on his mobile phone seeking comment.

In a statement, he dismissed suggestions that his comments sought in any way to play down Nazi crimes or the criminal nature of the Hitler regime, which he condemned. He said political rivals were trying to trump up allegations.

http://www.jpost.com/Jewish-World/Jewish-News/Austrian-Jews-demand-far-right-politician-recant-EU-Third-Reich-comparison-346341

[Tender Branson]

English article about it:

Austrian politician compares EU with 3rd Reich

The leader of Austria's Jewish community called on a right-wing politician to drop his campaign for re-election to the European Parliament after he was quoted as likening the European Union to the Third Reich in Nazi Germany.

Andreas Moelzer, co-lead candidate for Austria's far-right Freedom Party (FPO) in the May EU election, made headlines when a German paper quoted him as calling the EU a dictatorship that made the Third Reich look "informal and liberal" by comparison.

The Third Reich "certainly did not have as many rules and regulations, commandments and bans," the Sueddeutsche Zeitung's magazine quoted him as telling a gathering in Vienna last month.

Jewish leader Oskar Deutsch said on Monday Moelzer's refusal to distance himself from the comment showed he was apparently unable to come to grips with the fact that proponents of extreme-right thought shared responsibility for Nazi crimes.

"Such people may not represent Austria in Europe, so Moelzer should draw the consequences and withdraw his candidacy," Deutsch said in a statement.

Moelzer did not immediately respond to an email and a message left on his mobile phone seeking comment.

In a statement, he dismissed suggestions that his comments sought in any way to play down Nazi crimes or the criminal nature of the Hitler regime, which he condemned. He said political rivals were trying to trump up allegations.

http://www.jpost.com/Jewish-World/Jewish-News/Austrian-Jews-demand-far-right-politician-recant-EU-Third-Reich-comparison-346341

As always, the problem with this kind of remarks in this kind of context from this kind of politician in this kind of election campaign, the worst part is that the comment will very probably a) go on completely unnoticed b) make those who notice it more, instead of less, willing to vote for him...

Mölzer now says "he's sorry for the *n* comments" and that he's not ruling out stepping down as co-frontrunner for the FPÖ in the EP elections.

(He has not apologized so far for comparing the EU to the 3rd Reich ...)

You must be logged in to read this quote.

http://wien.orf.at/news/stories/2638076

[Tender Branson]

But I thought the EU was the new Soviet Union?

And if the EU is really the new Third Reich, doesn't that mean that the FPÖ should be in favour of the EU now??

I'm confused!

He didn't actually say that "the EU is the new Third Reich": He basically said that the Third Reich was better than the EU because the EU is a dictatorship now, whereas the Third Reich had a more liberal way of doing things and less bans than the EU has now ...

[Tender Branson]

FPÖ-leader Strache backs Mölzer and accepts the apology of his comments.

http://orf.at/stories/2223467/2223480

Which unfortunately means Mölzer will remain as frontrunner and not step down.

But the way Strache is backing him is crazy: He said that he "doesn't like the comments about the Third Reich" and that Mölzer "often uses the word necrophile to point out the EU's regulation madness".

Apparently it's ok for Strache to say something stupid about the Third Reich/Holocaust, then apologize and the thing's history for the FPÖ ...

[Tender Branson]

As always, the problem with this kind of remarks in this kind of context from this kind of politician in this kind of election campaign, the worst part is that the comment will very probably a) go on completely unnoticed b) make those who notice it more, instead of less, willing to vote for him...

No, the problem with this kind of remarks is that they are absolutely moronic, ridiculous, and offensive. Sorry dude but seriously, there is no excuse to make.

Of course these kind of remarks are absolutely moronic, ridiculous, and offensive and there is no excuse to make.

But Mr. Bear is also right: The FPÖ will now try to sit out the negative news reports that will last a few days and then start their usual attacking again against the Hypo bank or the government in general and everything will be forgotten again.

Then when the FPÖ starts their main EU campaigning, they will likely send the "unused" co-frontrunner Vilimsky to the ORF TV-debates, so that Mölzer isn't attacked personally again about the comments.

This is, like Mr. Bear said, in fact not a bad strategy for the FPÖ electorally: With those moronic comments by one frontrunner they get the far-right fringe to the polls, while the other frontrunner plays down/defends the comments and appeals to the more "moderate" FPÖ voters.

[Tender Branson]

Hans-Peter Martin won't run again:

http://derstandard.at/1395363176933/Martin-tritt-nicht-an

Martin got 18% in the 2009 elections.

[Tender Branson]

Signature update:

Europa Anders (Communists, Pirates, Wandel): 1600/2600 (60%+)

BZÖ: 1600/2600 (60%+)

SGA-Monarchisten ("Black Yellow Alliance - Monarchists"): 800/2600 (30%+)

...

Europa Anders and the BZÖ are averaging 800 signatures per week, with 3 weeks still to go.

The Monarchists are only averaging 400 per week, which is not enough ...

[Tender Branson]

We need to wait a week or two to find out if the "n/Third Reich" comment by the FPÖ's Mölzer has any impact in their polling numbers.

The Krone started reporting about it on 2 pages today, a newspaper that is read by every 2nd adult Austrian each day.

The FPÖ was polling 20-23% recently.

[Tender Branson]

After the ÖVP, the SPÖ is now out with their first poster campaign:



"Social values from Austria. For Europe."

[Tender Branson]

Angelika Werthmann, already an MEP, announced today that she'll run as an "Independent candidate" on the 2nd slot of the BZÖ party list. She will not become a member of the BZÖ, she said.

Werthmann previously tried to run in the NEOS online primaries, but didn't get very far in that one.

Today, the BZÖ had a press conference with the frontrunner Ulrike Haider (right) and Angelika Werthmann (left):



Which means the BZÖ technically would not need to collect the 2600 signatures anymore, since Werthmann can enable their candidacy with her MEP-signature.

[Tender Branson]

Angelika Werthmann, already an MEP, announced today that she'll run as an "Independent candidate" on the 2nd slot of the BZÖ party list. She will not become a member of the BZÖ, she said.

Guy Verhofstadt has sent an email to Werthman and asked her to leave the ALDE group in the EP today.

If she does not, he will call a special meeting next week and ask the party to expel her - because the candidacy for the right-wing BZÖ is not compatible with remaining in the liberal ALDE group and their ideals.

You must be logged in to read this quote.

http://derstandard.at/1395363386736/EU-Abgeordnete-Werthmann-kandidiert-fuer-BZOe

[Tender Branson]

New Gallup poll today (sample = 400, conducted March 25-27):



Still too early to tell if FPÖ-Mölzer's controversial remarks had any impact. Many people are only now reading and hearing about it in the news. But likely it won't have much of an impact.

[Tender Branson]

New Ökonsult poll for the Bezirksblätter:



Below the poll there are 3 questions:

My personal opinion about the EU is ...

44.6% very/somewhat positive
55.4% very/somewhat critical

Projected voting likelyhood ...

49.1% I will definitely/likely vote
28.2% I will likely/definitely not vote
22.6% Still undecided if I should vote

I describe my voting behaviour like this ...

33.3% I see myself as a protest voter & will use my vote to show the government my middle finger
66.7% May 25 is about the "Project Europe". I want to bring myself in democratically with my vote

[Tender Branson]

Signature update:

SGA-Monarchisten ("Black Yellow Alliance - Monarchists"): 800/2600 (30%+)

The Monarchists are only averaging 400 per week, which is not enough ...

The Monarchists now have 1.300 signatures already.

They still need another 1.300 though until April 11.

Would be funny if a Monarchist party ran in the EP election ... Of course they don't have any money for a campaign, so they end up with 0.1% of the vote - but still

[Tender Branson]

Signature update:

SGA-Monarchisten ("Black Yellow Alliance - Monarchists"): 800/2600 (30%+)

The Monarchists are only averaging 400 per week, which is not enough ...

The Monarchists now have 1.300 signatures already.

They still need another 1.300 though until April 11.

Would be funny if a Monarchist party ran in the EP election ... Of course they don't have any money for a campaign, so they end up with 0.1% of the vote - but still

Is there some Hapsburg around they are supporting?

They favour someone from the Habsburg family, but do not specify which one.

This is the current Habsburg family, on an older picture.



Karl Habsburg (now 53)
Francesa Habsburg (56)
Eleonore (19)
Ferdinand (17)
Gloria (14)

The Monarchists also want to legalize cannabis in Austria btw.