2013 Elections in Germany

[Tender Branson]

Infratest dimap has a new poll for Brandenburg:

FEDERAL



Compared with 2009:

SPD: +6%
Left: -10%
CDU: +8%
FDP: -6%
Greens: +2%

STATE

[Tender Branson]

This NRW poll (Left at just 3%), would actually mean that the Left is below the 5% treshold Germany-wide if we assume the same uniform losses in other states.

In 2009, the Left got 8.4% in NRW, but 11.9% Germany-wide.

So, the Left did 42% better in Germany than in NRW.

With 3% right now, the left would get ca. 4.3% Germany-wide.

Uniform proportional losses would be a very unrealistic assumption.
The Left's Eastern electorate is more stable than in the West.
Infratest dimap has the Left at 3% in the West (down from 8.3%; -64%) and 16% in the East (down from 28.5%; -44%). These proportions are in line with the 2011 Landtag results, recent polling from other firms and the historic evolution of the Left electorate.

I would not exclude the Left getting below 5%, but to see this you would need a result of barely more than 2% in the West.

Yeah, sure - uniform proportional losses are not going to happen.

It was just a scenario I was pointing out.

But the recent trend in federal polls that were conducted in some states is bad for the Left:

It only has 2-3% support anymore in population-rich western states like NRW, BW and Bavaria.

It has dropped from more than 20% to 8% in the Saarland.

And it's on track to lose more than 10% in the Eastern States.

If these polls are accurate, then the Left is hovering just above 5% Germany-wide.

[Tender Branson]

Latest Emnid poll (for the federal elections):

41% CDU/CSU
25% SPD
13% Greens
  8% Left
  5% FDP
  3% Pirates
  2% AfD
  3% Others

The CDU/CSU-FDP coalition is in a tie with SPD-Greens-Left (46% vs. 46%).

Left and FDP seem to have recovered a bit lately.

...

New Bayern state elections poll by FGW:

46% CSU
20% SPD
13% Greens
10% FW
  4% FDP
  7% Others

Absolute 46-43 majority for CSU.

If the FDP gets above 5%, the current CSU-FDP government would have a more comfortable majority.

[Tender Branson]

With the deadline now over, the following 58 parties have submitted their intention to run in the federal election:

1. FWD     Freie Wähler Deutschland
2. MDU     Muslimisch Demokratische Union
3. (keine Kurzbezeichnung)     Bündnis 2013 – Die Reformer
4. Die PlanetBlauen     WasserPartei Deutschland-WPD
5. DR     Deutsches Reich
6. DIE VIOLETTEN     Die Violetten
7. BP     Bayernpartei
8. Deutsche Konservative     DEUTSCHE KONSERVATIVE PARTEI
9. CM     CHRISTLICHE MITTE – Für ein Deutschland nach GOTTES Geboten
10. Volksabstimmung     Ab jetzt…Demokratie durch Volksabstimmung
11. Tierschutzpartei     PARTEI MENSCH UMWELT TIERSCHUTZ
12. (keine Kurzbezeichnung)     Eurowählergemeinschaft
13. FAMILIE     Familien-Partei Deutschlands
14. FREIE WÄHLER     FREIE WÄHLER
15. RENTNER     RENTNER Partei Deutschland
16. REP     DIE REPUBLIKANER
17. Bündnis 21/RRP     Bündnis 21/RRP
18. pro Deutschland     Bürgerbewegung pro Deutschland
19. KPD     Kommunistische Partei Deutschlands
20. (keine Kurzbezeichnung)     Erste Partei des Volkes
21. FRÜHLING     Frühling-in-Deutschland e. V.
22. PdB     Partei der Bedrängten
23. (keine Kurzbezeichnung)     DIE RECHTE
24. NEIN!     NEIN!-Idee
25. DGP     Die GERADE Partei
26. Die PARTEI     Partei für Arbeit, Rechtsstaat, Tierschutz, Elitenförderung und basisdemokratische Initiative
27. ÖDP     Ökologisch-Demokratische Partei
28. DUW     Demokratische Unabhängige Wählervereinigung
29. BGD     Bund für Gesamtdeutschland
30. BüSo     Bürgerrechtsbewegung Solidarität
31. DND     Die Neue Demokratie
32. Aufbruch C     Aufbruch C
33. DNV     Deutsche Nationalversammlung
34. SU     SustainableUnion
35. PBC     Partei Bibeltreuer Christen
36. AfD     Alternative für Deutschland
37. U.d.M.     Union der Menschlichkeit
38. BIG     Bündnis für Innovation & Gerechtigkeit
39. GMD     Partei Gesunder Menschenverstand Deutschland
40. IDPD     Immigranten-Deutsche-Partei Deutschlands
41. DKP     Deutsche Kommunistische Partei
42. MLPD     Marxistisch-Leninistische Partei Deutschlands
43. PSG     Partei für Soziale Gleichheit, Sektion der Vierten Internationale
44. PIRATEN     Piratenpartei Deutschland
45. (keine Kurzbezeichnung)     Jahw Partei
46. B     Bergpartei, die "ÜberPartei"
47. (keine Kurzbezeichnung)     DIE ALTERNATIVEN
48. (keine Kurzbezeichnung)     Partei der Nichtwähler
49. PARTEI DER VERNUNFT     Partei der Vernunft
50. IDU     Islamische Demokratische Union
51. DA     DIE AKTIVEN
52. APPD     Anarchistische Pogo-Partei Deutschlands
53. DIE FRAUEN     Feministische Partei DIE FRAUEN
54. GRAUE PANTHER     GRAUE PANTHER Deutschland
55. (keine Kurzbezeichnung)     DIE.NÄCHSTEN
56. Alternative Partei     Alternative Partei
57. NM     NEUE MITTE
58. DGP     Deutsche Gerechtigkeits Partei 

http://www.bundeswahlleiter.de/de/bundestagswahlen/BTW_BUND_13/presse/w13004_Zahl_der_Beteiligungsanzeigen.html

[Tender Branson]

How many signatures are needed in Germany to be on the ballot federally and in the states ?

[Tender Branson]

I'm not sure why the Pirates are on your list. Most likely wikipedia is wrong.

Having researched the matter... it seems like they didn't have to declare intent but did anyways (possibly not knowing they didn't have to. FW and NPD didn't make this (entirely harmless) mistake.

FW are on that list twice though, with 2 different names. Or are these other "Freie Wähler" parties ?

[Tender Branson]

Latest Forsa:

40% CDU/CSU
22% SPD
15% Greens
  8% Left
  6% FDP
  2% Pirates
  2% AfD
  5% Others

46-45 majority for CDU/CSU-FDP over SPD-Greens-Left.

Latest GMS:

41% CDU/CSU
25% SPD
14% Greens
  8% Left
  5% FDP
  2% Pirates
  2% AfD
  2% FW
  1% Others

CDU/CSU-FDP has 46% vs. 47% for SPD-Greens-Left.

[Tender Branson]

The average from the last polls:

41-43% CDU/CSU
22-26% SPD
13-15% Greens
    6-8% Left
    4-5% FDP
    0-3% Pirates
    0-3% AfD
    4-6% Others

[Tender Branson]

New Hessen state elections poll by FGW:

38% CDU (+1)
30% SPD (+6)
15% Greens (+1)
  5% FDP (-11)
  4% Left (-1)
  3% AfD (+3)
  5% Others

Slight majority for SPD-Greens (45%) over CDU-FDP (43%).

[Tender Branson]

The following 38 parties have been approved by the federal election commission to take part in the federal election:

Parties already in the Bundestag

1. Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands (CDU),
2. Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (SPD),
3. Freie Demokratische Partei (FDP),
4. DIE LINKE (DIE LINKE),
5. BÜNDNIS 90/DIE GRÜNEN (GRÜNE),
6. Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern e.V. (CSU).

Parties already in the state parliaments

7. FREIE WÄHLER (FREIE WÄHLER),
8. Nationaldemokratische Partei Deutschlands (NPD),
9. Piratenpartei Deutschland (PIRATEN).

Parties that were approved

1. Die Violetten (DIE VIOLETTEN)
2. Bayernpartei (BP)
3. CHRISTLICHE MITTE – Für ein Deutschland nach GOTTES Geboten (CM)
4. Ab jetzt…Demokratie durch Volksabstimmung (Volksabstimmung)
5. PARTEI MENSCH UMWELT TIERSCHUTZ (Tierschutzpartei)
6. Familien-Partei Deutschlands (FAMILIE)
7. RENTNER Partei Deutschland (RENTNER)
8. DIE REPUBLIKANER (REP)
9. Bündnis 21/RRP (Bündnis 21/RRP)
10. Bürgerbewegung pro Deutschland (pro Deutschland)
11. Kommunistische Partei Deutschlands (KPD)
12. DIE RECHTE (keine Kurzbezeichnung)
13. NEIN!-Idee (NEIN!)
14. Partei für Arbeit, Rechtsstaat, Tierschutz, Elitenförderung und basisdemokratische Initiative (Die PARTEI)
15. Ökologisch-Demokratische Partei (ÖDP)
16. Bund für Gesamtdeutschland (BGD)
17. Bürgerrechtsbewegung Solidarität (BüSo)
18. Partei Bibeltreuer Christen (PBC)
19. Alternative für Deutschland (AfD)
20. Bündnis für Innovation & Gerechtigkeit (BIG)
21. Partei Gesunder Menschenverstand Deutschland (GMD)
22. Deutsche Kommunistische Partei (DKP)
23. Marxistisch-Leninistische Partei Deutschlands (MLPD)
24. Partei für Soziale Gleichheit, Sektion der Vierten Internationale (PSG)
25. Bergpartei, die „ÜberPartei“ (B)
26. Partei der Nichtwähler (keine Kurzbezeichnung)
27. Partei der Vernunft (PARTEI DER VERNUNFT)
28. Feministische Partei DIE FRAUEN (DIE FRAUEN)
29. NEUE MITTE (NM)

...

The 29 approved parties not represented in either the Bundestag or state parliaments have to collect enough signatures in the electoral districts now (at least 200) until July 15 and enough signatures for the state ballot (until July 26), for which a signature amount of 1/1000 of the eligible state voters in the previous federal election is needed, but no more than 2000.

Even though I don't really understand what is meant here:

You must be logged in to read this quote.

If for example Bavaria had 9 Mio. eligible voters in 2009 and 1/1000 signatures are needed, this would be 9000, but it also says "no more than 2000" are required.

Does anyone know what this means ?

[Tender Branson]

It is the lower of the two numbers. So, in Bavaria, it would be 2,000 signatures. In a smaller state, e.g. Bremen, which should have no more than 400,000 eligible voters, it is 400 signatures.

Thx. That makes sense ...

[Tender Branson]

A load of new polls came out in the past few days.

Here's the average of the 5 federal polls (INSA, Allensbach, Emnid, Forsa, FGW, Infratest dimap):

40.7% CDU/CSU
25.3% SPD
13.4% Greens
  7.2% Left
  4.9% FDP
  2.4% AfD
  1.5% Pirates
  0.2% FW
  4.5% Others

There are also 2 Bayern state election polls out by GMS and Emnid (averages, but they have virtually identical results anyway):

47.0% CSU
19.0% SPD
11.0% Greens
  9.5% FW
  5.0% FDP
  1.5% Pirates
  1.5% Left
  0.5% AfD
  5.0% Others

Absolute majority for CSU.

...

There's also a Bayern poll from GMS for the federal election:

49% CSU (+6.5 compared with 2009 federal election)
19% SPD (+2)
14% Greens (+3)
  4% FDP (-11)
  3% FW (+3)
  3% Left (-3.5)
  2% Pirates (nc)
  2% AfD (+2)
  4% Others

[Tender Branson]

Wait, do southern Germans not go on vacation during the summer?

Sure, but later.

Summer break for BW students starts July 25 this year and for Bavarian students on July 31.

[Tender Branson]

A new Bayern state elections poll by Infratest dimap shows once more a CSU absolute majority:



Also, Gov. Seehofer (CSU) has a sky-high approval rating:



by party ("is a good Governor"):



... and beats the SPD-frontrunner and Munich mayor by a huge margin:



The CSU-dominance is especially seen in this chart ("confidence in the direction Bayern is going"):



and the fact that the CSU dominates by HUGE margins when it comes to economic competence (finance and budget):



and to protect the Bavarian economy:



and to provide good education policies:



http://www.br.de/fernsehen/bayerisches-fernsehen/sendungen/kontrovers/bayerntrend-kontrovers-wahl-2013-100.html

[Tender Branson]

There's also a new Hessen poll for the state elections and the federal elections:

In the state elections, CDU/FDP and SPD-Greens are neck-and-neck.



Left poll = state poll
Right poll = federal poll

http://www.fnp.de/rhein-main/rhein-mainhessen/So-wollen-die-Hessen-waehlen-CDU-FDP-und-SPD-Gruene-gleichauf;art801,579743

[Tender Branson]

What's with the huge other?

Pirates, Republicans, Nazis, FW most likely.

And in the case of Bayern, the BP and the ÖDP too.

[Tender Branson]

According to the new FORSA poll, CDU/CSU-FDP will be re-elected:

41% CDU/CSU
22% SPD
12% Greens
  9% Left
  5% FDP
  4% Pirates
  7% Others

46% CDU/CSU-FDP vs. 43% SPD-Greens-Left.

Pirates seem to be gaining at the expense of the Greens.

[Tender Branson]

LOL @ this JU (Young Union, the youth organisation of the CDU/CSU) election poster:



"Stay cool and vote for the Chancellor(in)"

[Tender Branson]

German SPD’s Platzeck to Resign as Brandenburg State Premier

German Social Democrat Matthias Platzeck, premier of the eastern state of Brandenburg, will step down for health reasons, dealing a possible blow to the party as it seeks to unseat Chancellor Angela Merkel.



Platzeck, who has served as the state’s prime minister since 2002 and held the SPD’s national chairmanship briefly following the 2005 election, was scheduled to return to work today after suffering a minor stroke last month. The popular 59-year-old state leader will be replaced by Brandenburg’s interior minister, Dietmar Woidke, Die Welt newspaper reported.

“This is a great loss for German politics,” the SPD federal parliamentary whip, Thomas Oppermann, said in a message on Twitter in which he confirmed the resignation. A spokeswoman in Platzeck’s office in the state capital, Potsdam, declined to comment when contacted by phone.

Platzeck’s departure leaves the SPD without one of its most experienced leaders in eastern Germany ahead of the Sept. 22 national election as it trails Merkel’s Christian Democratic bloc by about 15 points in most polls. The premier has been politically active in the east since before the 1989 opening of the Berlin Wall.

http://www.businessweek.com/news/2013-07-29/german-spd-s-platzeck-to-resign-as-brandenburg-state-premier

[Tender Branson]

Found a nice chart of who is running where (blue = on the ballot, red = party was rejected):



http://www.wahlrecht.de/bundestag/2013/parteien-landeslisten.html

[Tender Branson]

The SPD-poster crews putting up their stuff:



or Hashemite-style:

[Tender Branson]

Interesting fact:

While the ARD and Infratest dimap decided to release their final poll 10 days ahead of the election, the ZDF and Forschungsgruppe Wahlen decided to conduct their final poll in the last week before the election and release it 3 days ahead of it.

ZDF said that the Lower Saxony election led to their decision, in which the FDP gained many "loan votes" from the CDU and therefore the pre-election polls were way off.

ARD on the other hand argues that releasing their final poll 10 days ahead of the election is better because a poll just 3 days ahead of the election could lead to influencing people, especially if the poll shows a big lead for CDU/CSU - so people might stay at home.

http://www.spiegel.de/spiegel/vorab/ard-will-keine-umfrage-direkt-vor-der-bundestagswahl-veroeffentlichen-a-914632.html

[Tender Branson]

Another Steinbruck gaffe: this time saying Merkel lacked a passion for Europe because she's an Easterner. At this rate we should have a list of demographics he hasn't yet offended. How do you say "WHAT ABOUT YOUR GAAFFES!!!" in German?

Don't know what the average standard-German would say to Steinbrück about his gaffes, but ...

... in Vienna, they would say: "Bist wo an'grennt, oida ?" (literally: "have you run into a wall, dude ?", but means: "are you nuts, dude ?")

[Tender Branson]

New Infratest dimap poll:

42% CDU/CSU
25% SPD
13% Greens
  7% Left
  5% FDP         
  3% Pirates
  5% Others

47-45 majority for CDU/CSU-FDP.

[Tender Branson]

I like this one best:



"Surveillance State - Never Again !"

"Civil rights are non-negotiable ! For a life free of surveillance."

"Vote Pirates."