2013 Elections in Germany

[Tender Branson]

CDU/CSU now just short of an absolute majority by 1 seat in both the ARD and ZDF projections that came out a few minutes ago.

ARD: 299 of 598
ZDF: 303 of 606 (probably some overhang mandates)

[Tender Branson]

Merkel approval rating among ALL voters:

80-17 approve

(ZDF)

By party:

97% CDU/CSU
90% FDP
60% AfD
43% Left
39% Greens
18% SPD

[Tender Branson]

302/598 seats.

[Tender Branson]

ZDF now has an absolute majority as well:

[Tender Branson]

ARD:

[Tender Branson]

ARD (West Germany):



ARD (East Germany):

[Tender Branson]

Direct vote for Chancellor:

[Tender Branson]

Approval ratings of party leaders among ALL voters:

[Tender Branson]

Projections with actual results.

Well, the official results page is showing nothing, but what percent is in?

Results (they are announced by district) are not coming in for another hour or so.

Germany is using paper ballots and 2 votes need to be counted and protocollized.

And in Hessen, they have a state election too.

[Tender Branson]

Ah, so "projection" has a very different connotation in Germany than in the United States.

The "projectors" from ARD and ZDF use precinct data to create their projections.

The more data they get from counted precincts, the more precise the projection becomes.

The "projectors" probably know how many precincts are already in "at the moment", but unlike in Austria, this gets never broadcasted in Germany.

[Tender Branson]

"Angela Merkel represents our country well in the world."

"Angela Merkel doesn't make party politics, but politics for the country."

[Tender Branson]

My final prediction:

38.8% [+5.0] CDU/CSU
27.0% [+4.0] SPD
  8.6%  [-3.3] Left
  8.5%  [-2.2] Greens
  5.1% [+5.1] AfD
  5.0%  [-9.6] FDP (above threshold, something like 5.04 or so)
  2.1% [+0.1] Pirates
  1.3% [+1.3] FW
  1.1%  [-0.4] NPD
  2.5% Others (none of those with more than 1%)

Turnout: 73.4% (+2.6%)

The percentages for every party should be within +/- 0.5% of the final result (at least I hope so).

Let's see:

CDU/CSU: underestimated by 2.7
SPD: overestimated by 1.3
Left: predicted exacly
Greens: overestimated by 0.1
AfD: overestimated by 0.4
FDP: overestimated by 0.2
Pirates: underestimated by 0.1
FW: overestimated by 0.3
NPD: underestimated by 0.2

I got 7/9 within 0.5%

[Tender Branson]

Breaking: Christian Lindner set to become new FDP chairman.

Journalists have also calculated that up to 600 people are going to lose their jobs because of the FDP collapse. That's how many people the FDP employed in their Bundestag offices. At least Lindner is not umemployed, because he's still a state parliament member from NRW.

Good.

Barney Stinson Christian Lindner will get the FDP back on track for 2017.

[Tender Branson]

Good overview of state results:

[Tender Branson]

Change in size of electorate, 2009-2013.

Using Al's basemap and shades from his key.



The loss at Ludwigsburg (northwestern suburbs of Stuttgart) strikes me as bizarre. Quite possibly an error in the official data.

A map of population gain/loss basically.

Compare with this:

http://www.citypopulation.de/php/germany-admin.php

Go to "change" and "level 2".

...

Ludwigsburg could be off, but not necessarily: For example if the population between 2009-2013 only increased because of foreigners moving there, while the German population declined because they went elsewhere or more died than were born.

[Tender Branson]

Apparently, ca. 60% of SPD-members polled by Forsa are in favour of a Grand Coalition.

[Tender Branson]

First ZDF poll after the election:

43% CDU/CSU (+1.5)
26% SPD (+0.3)
10% Left (+1.4)
  7% Greens (-1.4)
  5% AfD (+0.3)
  3% FDP [-1.8]
  6% Others