2013 Elections in Germany

[Tender Branson]

Moderator to Steinbrück: ''75% of Germans are happy with the way things are going for them and in the county. For you, frankly, that sucks."

[Tender Branson]

Raab vs. Steinbrück is pretty good.

[Tender Branson]

Somebody was fast, twitter account mocking Merkel's necklace:

https://twitter.com/schlandkette

Whats the big deal about it ?

US politicians for example wear pins with the US flag all the time.

[Tender Branson]

Post-debate poll shows Merkel winning the first half of the debate by 1%.

[Tender Branson]

The debate was roughly Obama vs. Romney's 1st debate - just not as clear.

Here are some charts from ARD's pollster:

"Who did you find more convincing in the debate ?"



"Who would you vote for Chancellor ? (before the debate, after the debate)"



We'll see how this translates into the next election polls, but they said that Steinmeier had similar results in the 2009 debate and then the SPD got the lowest result ever.

[Tender Branson]

Today is the Bavarian TV-debate. Seehofer (CSU) vs. Ude (SPD)

If someone wants you can see it on www.br.de It is 20:15 German time

I will watch it.

Seehofer and the CSU will probably get ca. 50% again in the state election.

Ude also supports the wrong football club in Munich or Bayern ... TSV 1860 München - not Bayern München ...

[Tender Branson]

New ZDF/FGW poll out, all interviews conducted after the Merkel/Steinbrück debate:

41% CDU/CSU (no change compared with their pre-debate poll)
26% SPD (nc)
10% Greens (-2) !!! (lowest level since ... 4 years)
  8% Left (+1)
  6% FDP (nc)
  3% AfD (nc)
  6% Others (+1)

47-44 majority for CDU/CSU-FDP over SPD-Greens-Left.

[Tender Branson]

New Bavaria state elections poll:



Solid 48-38 absolute majority for the CSU.

[Tender Branson]

New NRW poll for the federal election:



2009 result:

33% CDU
29% SPD
15% FDP
10% Greens
  8% Left
  2% Pirates

Damn, Greens are now even starting to lose vs. 2009 ...

[Tender Branson]

What a bizarre story!

German newspapers report that a man tried to blackmail Steinbrück for having illegally employed a Philippine cleaning lady 14 years ago. According to Spiegel, Steinbrück and his wife deny these allegations and have already informed the police.

Steinbrück = Romney ?

http://www.politifact.com/truth-o-meter/statements/2011/oct/18/mitt-romney/illegal-immigrants-did-lawn-care-mitt-romney

[Tender Branson]

How would Germany's 14-17 year olds vote ? Infratest Dimap polled 500 of them:

[Tender Branson]

My Bayern state elections prediction:

47.7% CSU (+4%)
19.4% SPD (+1%)
10.2% Greens (+1%)
  7.5% FW (-3%)
  4.1% FDP (-4%)
  2.8% Pirates (+3%)
  2.5% Left (-2%)
  1.6% ÖDP (nc)
  4.2% Others

Turnout: 55% (+/- 3%)

[Tender Branson]

ARD and ZDF out with their latest polls (average):

40.0% CDU/CSU
27.0% SPD
10.5% Greens
  8.0% Left
  5.5% FDP

Guess what ?

45.5% CDU/CSU-FDP
45.5% SPD-Greens-Left

Could be fun.

[Tender Branson]

FDP ?



http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Christian_Lindner

[Tender Branson]

For the SPD, I hope either Manuela Schwesig or Hannelore Kraft take over after the removal of the Steinbrück/Steinmeier/Gabriel trainwreck:



Maybe Schwesig as party leader and later Kraft as Chancellor candidate in 2017.

[Tender Branson]

What is this "leader" you speak of? German parties have chairpersons, and also prospective chancellors/state pms, and of course and parliamentary party chairs (although here 'leader' is more appropriate as a translation; but only if you keep in mind that he's not leading the party as a whole.)
As a result, these people are not replaced as a result of elections (unless some party chair-cum-state pm resigns his party office as a result of a particularly bad drubbing.)

This is what I meant: If the SPD has a really bad result again, then there could be a leadership debate, like in 2009. And in this case, I would prefer the above candidates - because the Steinbrück/Steinmeier/Gabriel management seems to have lost the flavour.

If the SPD can get close to 30% on the other hand somehow, with CDU/CSU at 37/38% - things could be different. A debate about the chairperson might not be needed.

[Tender Branson]

Today is the Bayern state election.

Bayern (Bavaria) is the 2nd biggest state in Germany in terms of population and has historically been a CSU-stronghold. In the last election, the CSU crashed from 61% to 43% and for the first time needed the FDP as coalition partner.

The current seat distribution in the state parliament:



2008 results:



2008 results (changes compared with 2003):



Historical state election results:

[Tender Branson]

Polls in Bayern close at 6pm local today.

There will be 1st projections right at this time on ARD, ZDF and BR.

First detailed projections (Hochrechnungen) probably after 15-30 minutes.

[Tender Branson]

Why does the Bayern election site not offer maps for the "Gesamtstimme" (2nd vote), only for the "Erststimme" (first vote) ?

http://www.landtagswahl2013.bayern.de/taba0999.html

[Tender Branson]

According to some early reports until noon, turnout could be ca. 60% in Bayern today.

Mostly due to increased absentee voting.

[Tender Branson]

Why does the Bayern election site not offer maps for the "Gesamtstimme" (2nd vote), only for the "Erststimme" (first vote) ?

In order that Al has something to do. But as you can see if you scroll down, they'll be offering shaded Gesamt maps for the parties, just not a shaded leader map.


But Gesamtstimme is 1st and 2nd vote added. This is Bavaria. Their election law is special.

Not only are seats calculated from the sum of list and direct votes, there are also two separate ballot papers for direct and list. And the list is not a state but a Bezirk-wide list. And unlike almost everywhere else in Germany, the list is a free list - you vote for one candidate and simultaneously for the list he's on (and a fun extra detail: you cannot cast your list vote for your district's direct candidate. They are, if included on the district-wide list, omitted on the list ballot for their direct constituency. Sample.)

And there are Bezirk elections on the same day, using the same election law, and five referenda. These however are listed on a single ballot paper... but that still makes five sheets to fill in for every voter.

No Al needed after all, I found an online map for Erst- & Gesamtstimme:

http://www.nordbayern.de/ressorts/schlagzeilenseite/landtagswahl-in-bayern-1.3133510?useWideModul=true&source=marginale

Click on "Stimmkreise".

[Tender Branson]

Turnout likely to be between 60-65% now (2008: 58%).

Turnout in Munich up to 50% from 40% at the 2pm measuring.

Sign of SPD mobilization ?

[Tender Branson]

Whereabouts do you live?

In the Southeast of Upper Bavaria.

So, you basically live only a few kilometers away from me ?

How far away from Unken do you live ca. ?

[Tender Branson]

Turnout in Augsburg is lagging behind the 2008 level by a bit, but Nürnberg is up ca. 2% and Würzburg up by 10%, like Munich.

[Tender Branson]

Speaking of rural Bayern, check out my pictures from my trip to Passau and back through Braunau am Inn last year:

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=152340.msg3272429#msg3272429