The Official Obama 2.0 Approval Ratings Thread

[Tender Branson]

MN (SurveyUSA):

36-54

http://kstp.com/news/stories/s3392801.shtml

[Tender Branson]

Obama's national approval average is now 44-51 on RCP.

This is up from 40-56 approval about 6 months ago.

If the trend continues, Obama would have roughly a split 48-48 rating by the time of the November elections.

[Tender Branson]

Obama now at -2 in both Rasmussen and Gallup today:

Gallup is 46-48 and Rasmussen is 48-50.

Obama now has the best rating at Gallup since Sept. last year.

[Tender Branson]

NYT/Kaiser polls:

Do you approve or disapprove of the way Barack Obama is handling his job as President?

AR: 33-60
KY: 32-60
LA: 42-54
NC: 41-51

http://s3.documentcloud.org/documents/1146701/polls-in-four-southern-states-april-8-15-2014.pdf

[Tender Branson]

YouGov polled all 50 states:

The national rating was 40% approve, 57% disapprove.

[Tender Branson]

Both Gallup and Rasmussen now have improving poll numbers for Obama (Thanksgiving effect ?):

Gallup: 45-50
Rasmussen: 48-50

On the other hand, Reuters/Ipsos and The Economist/YouGov (both done before Thanksgiving) show the opposite:

37-56 and 39-58

But Ipsos and YouGov were also miles away from the 2014 exit poll result.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/other/president_obama_job_approval-1044.html

[Tender Branson]

Obama's approval just made a massive jump today to 50-49 (Rasmussen).

On Gallup he's recovering too.

Job report bounce ?

[Tender Branson]

Up to 47-49 approval today on Gallup.

Rasmussen has it at 48-51.

[Tender Branson]

Obama's approval always seems to increase over the holidays when he's away from the spotlight and on vacation in Hawaii, so he might as well see positive numbers over the next 2 weeks for the first time in a year or so.

[Tender Branson]

Obama approval now positive on both Gallup and Rasmussen today:

Gallup: 48-47 approve
Rasmussen: 50-48 approve

The Christmas/economy bump.

[Tender Branson]

I have sent RCP an email that they should remove that silly Reuters/Ipsos tracking poll from their average, just like the Economist/YouGov poll.

They are major outliers.

Rasmussen, Gallup, CNN and CBS all show ca. 50-50 ratings right now.

Reuters/Ipsos has a 38% (!!!) approval and YouGov is not much better.

These 2 were already way off compared with the 2014 exit poll.

[Tender Branson]

I have sent RCP an email that they should remove that silly Reuters/Ipsos tracking poll from their average, just like the Economist/YouGov poll.

They are major outliers.

Rasmussen, Gallup, CNN and CBS all show ca. 50-50 ratings right now.

Reuters/Ipsos has a 38% (!!!) approval and YouGov is not much better.

These 2 were already way off compared with the 2014 exit poll.

Perhaps, on the flip side if we go back 3-4 month ago we can make a similar argument that Rasmussen should be taken off the RCP average since it consistently has a much higher approval rating for Obama than the rest of the pack.  All that took place since was Gallup and CBS has converged to the Rasmussen while Reuters/Ipsos and to some extend FOX and Economist/YouGov still has approval ratings more like 3-4 months ago.  That is the whole point of a RCP average.  House effects is not constant (in 2012 Reuters/Ipsos and Economist/YouGov were very accurate while Rasmussen has a history of a GOP bias which now seems to be reversed.)  So the best way to cater for all of this is go for an average accepting that there will be some that would not be close to the pack for some period of time.

The latest Reuters/Ipsos tracking poll has Obama's approval rating at 68% among Democrats !

How friggin insane of a result is this ?

They should definitely review their methodology, because they are a joke pollster.

[Tender Branson]

Rasmussen is at 51-47 today.

Rasmussen's daily numbers are based on a 3-day average (2 days are now in after the speech).

[Tender Branson]

AR (Talk Business/Hendrix College)

Do you approve or disapprove of the job President Barack Obama is doing?

26% – Approve
70% – Disapprove

Do you approve or disapprove of the job Gov. Asa Hutchinson is doing?

52% – Approve
12% – Disapprove

Do you approve or disapprove of the job Sen. Tom Cotton is doing?

50% – Approve
30% – Disapprove

Do you approve or disapprove of the job Sen. John Boozman is doing?

40% – Approve
22% – Disapprove

1,079 registered Arkansas voters were polled of which 86% were landline phones reached by automated calls and 14% were surveyed via the Internet. The poll, which was conducted from Jan. 29 to Feb. 1, 2015, has a margin of error of +/-2.98%.

http://talkbusiness.net/2015/02/poll-hutchinson-cotton-break-50-with-early-job-approval-ratings

[Tender Branson]

Obama got quite a bump in the last week, going from 43% on RCP to over 50% on Rasmussen and Gallup today.