German unemployment highest since 1930's

[Tender Branson]

This number is now down to the lowest level in 12 years - reaching 3.7 Mio unemployed in July 2007. The nationally defined unemployment rate was 8.9% in July, the internationally more comparable rate (ILO-Rate) is down to a low of 6.3% (compared with the July rate of 4.6% in the US).

If the positive economic climate continues in Germany over the next 2 years it could eventually go down as low as about 3 Mio. unemployed or about 5% (ILO-Definition), comparable with the US rate. But unemployment in the Eastern German states is still double that of Western German states. While the unemployment rate in West Germany is now comparable with that of the US, that can´t be said about East Germany yet ...



That would basically mean that Germany reduced its unemploment from over 5 Mio. to 3 Mio. in about 4 years, or 40%.

Also, the number of employed people reached a new high in July 2007, about to hit the 40 Mio. barrier for the first time.

Graphic:

Blue line = total persons employed
Red line = total number of registered unemployed persons

[Tender Branson]

This number is now down to the lowest level in 12 years - reaching 3.7 Mio unemployed in July 2007. The nationally defined unemployment rate was 8.9% in July, the internationally more comparable rate (ILO-Rate) is down to a low of 6.3% (compared with the July rate of 4.6% in the US).

Germany's unemployment rate for October dropped below the 3.5 million mark for the first time in more than a decade, the government's labor agency said Tuesday.

Some 3.43 million Germans were without jobs in October, 110,000 fewer than in September, driven by the seasonal autumn upswing in the job market and the nation's overall economic improvement, the Federal Labor Agency said in a statement.

The unadjusted jobless rate was 8.2 percent, the agency said, compared with 8.4 percent in September.

Compared with last October, some 650,000 fewer people were out of work, the agency said.

"The positive development in the unemployment figures is attributed to the pick up in the economy," the agency said in a statement.

http://www.businessweek.com/ap/financialnews/D8SJFUTO0.htm

Plus:

One tenth of 1 percent may sound like a tiny amount. But the figure, calculated by officials at Germany's Finance Ministry, signifies a big step for their boss, Finance Minister Peer Steinbrück, and for the entire country. It means that the federal government, the federal states, municipalities and the social insurance system will achieve a surplus this year amounting to 0.1 percent of Germany's gross domestic product (GDP).

Put simply, in terms of annual economic output, the amount of money the nation takes in this year will exceed the amount of money it spends by 0.1 percent, or about €2.5 billion ($3.6 billion).

This hasn't happened in a long time. Aside from a brief surplus in the former West Germany back in 1989, for the past four decades Germany's federal and state finance ministers have consistently borrowed funds to balance their budgets. The country has built up a mountain of debt that has reached the enormous sum of €1.5 trillion.

That process has now come to a halt. And Steinbrück's experts expect the surplus to continue growing: to 0.2 percent in 2008, 0.5 percent in 2009, 1 percent in 2010 and 1.5 percent in 2011. This, at least, is what emerges from the preliminary work on Germany's annual stability program -- a sort of accountability report for the federal government on the condition of government finances -- which Steinbrück will be required to submit to the European Commission in Brussels in December.

http://www.spiegel.de/international/germany/0,1518,514366,00.html

[Tender Branson]

I think it's worth noting that German unemployment has dipped below 3 Mio. in October.

BERLIN

Germany's jobless rate fell to 7.2 percent in October and the number of people out of work dropped below 3 million for the first time in 16 years, government figures showed Thursday - evidence that the financial crisis has yet to find its way through to the labor market.

The Federal Labor Agency said the unadjusted unemployment rate in Europe's biggest economy declined from 7.4 percent in September.

The number of Germans registered as unemployed fell by 84,000 to 2.997 million - the first time it has been below 3 million since November 1992.

German unemployment has been sinking since it peaked at 12.6 percent in February 2005 - with a post-reunification record of 5.216 million people jobless.

http://www.forbes.com/feeds/ap/2008/10/30/ap5624775.html



http://www.pub.arbeitsamt.de/hst/services/statistik/000000/html/start/karten/aloq_kreis.html

[Tender Branson]

You gotta love Southern Germany...

Austria is not much different. There were about 203.000 registered unemployed, for a rate of about 5.0%. According to Eurostat it's 3.2%, the 3rd lowest rate in the EU.

[Tender Branson]

You gotta love Southern Germany...

Austria is not much different. There were about 203.000 registered unemployed, for a rate of about 5.0%. According to Eurostat it's 3.2%, the 3rd lowest rate in the EU.

Do you think we could get you to take the east states away from us?

No. Maybe Poland is interested ?

[Tender Branson]

Well, the Wall's still around.

Indeed !

[Tender Branson]

Still down in November:

"BERLIN (AP) — Germany's Federal Labor Agency says the country's unemployment rate dipped to 7.1 percent in November.

The jobless rate in Europe's biggest economy was down from 7.2 percent in October. A total of 2.988 million people were registered as unemployed — 8,000 fewer than a month earlier.

The figures Thursday suggest that the economic crisis has yet to find its way through to the labor market. However, economists expect that to happen in the coming months."

http://www.google.com/hostednews/ap/article/ALeqM5iBHj6-nq40ytTE9Ld-K-07KiqTLwD94N6C480

...

I wonder if or when the US will overtake Germany ...

[Tender Branson]

LOL ! EUROSTAT is going crazy.

In their latest report they announced that Austria has now (October) the second-lowest Unemployment rate in the European Union, at 3%.

http://epp.eurostat.ec.europa.eu/pls/portal/docs/PAGE/PGP_PRD_CAT_PREREL/PGE_CAT_PREREL_YEAR_2008/PGE_CAT_PREREL_YEAR_2008_MONTH_11/3-28112008-EN-BP.PDF

But how is this possible ?

According to the Austrian Ministry of Labor, about 4.142.000 people were registered as employed in October and there were about 203.000 registered unemployed, for a total labor force of 4.345.000, for an unemployment rate of 4.7%

http://www.bmwa.gv.at/NR/rdonlyres/AB1731C7-8BC2-4E9A-9851-D95F800936E2/0/ArbeitsmarktdatenOktober2008.pdf

How can they estimate a rate that is 1.7% lower ?

[Tender Branson]

Unemployment is finally on the rise in Austria as well.

The new December numbers were released yesterday and the total number of registered unemployed rose by 8.2% compared with a year ago to about 287.000.

Currently the unemployment rate is at 7.8%, allthough EUROSTAT estimates it at 3.0% (different methodology -> see previous post).

In my home state of Salzburg, the number even jumped by 23.6% compared with the previous year (the highest increase in Austria), but it still has the lowest unemployment rate of all states, at 4.6% ...

New December numbers for the US are out next Friday, for Germany next Wednesday.

http://www.fxstreet.com/news/forex-news/article.aspx?StoryId=a0b39fd4-87ab-4382-8fd3-126639c20e40

[Tender Branson]

Registered Unemployment here in Austria is up by 24% compared with a year ago.

301.695 people were unemployed at the end of February, for a national unemployment rate of 8.3% (Eurostat: 4.0% - January)

Youth unemployment is up 36% sompared with February 2008.

...

As for Germany, there were 3.551.926 unemployed persons in February, for a national unemployment rate of 8.5% (Eurostat: 7.3% - January). The number is down by 65.517 persons from February 2008.

[Tender Branson]

Latest unemployment figures from Germany and Austria (March 2009):

Germany

3.586.000 unemployed (up 34.000 compared with Feb. '09, up 78.000 compared with March '08)
National Unemployment Rate: 8.6% (+0.1% compared with Feb. '09, +0.2% from March '08)
ILO Unemployment Rate: ~7.5%

Austria

271.000 unemployed (down 31.000 compared with Feb. '09, up 60.000 compared with March '08)
National Unemployment Rate: ~7.5% (-0.8% compared with Feb. '09, +1.7% from March '08)
ILO Unemployment Rate: ~4.0%

[Tender Branson]

Detailed numbers for Austria out today:

271.127 unemployed (+60.671 compared with March 2008, or up by 28.8%)
National unemployment rate: 7.5%
Eurostat/ILO unemployment rate: 4.5% (February 2009, second lowest in the EU-27)

Unemployment in my home state of Salzburg:

12.905 unemployed (+4.862 compared with March 2008, or up by 60.5%)
Salzburg unemployment rate: 5.2% (lowest in Austria)

[Tender Branson]

Remember this ?

The number is now about half of that and the rate is now down to 6% in May (5% in Western Germany and 10% in Eastern Germany).

[Tender Branson]

Remember this ?

Is now down to 5.3%, from 11.9% in the article.