Mellman Group (D): Obama leads by 5 in KY-06 (user search)
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  Mellman Group (D): Obama leads by 5 in KY-06 (search mode)
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Author Topic: Mellman Group (D): Obama leads by 5 in KY-06  (Read 1666 times)
Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,195
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84

« on: May 01, 2012, 10:53:58 AM »
« edited: May 02, 2012, 12:10:59 AM by Tender Branson »

A poll released Tuesday shows Democratic Congressman Ben Chandler is very well-positioned to win re-election in the 6th district congressional race this fall.

The survey, which was conducted by the Mellman Group in late March, gives Chandler a 24-point lead over his opponent, Republican Andy Barr (54% to 30%).

Chandler maintains very high name recognition (86%) among voters in his district, and the poll reveals that he is viewed far more favorably (52%) than Barr (24%).

In addition, the survey found that the recently redrawn 6th district is very problematic for Republicans, with Democrats holding a 48% to 30% voter ID advantage over Republicans. The poll further revealed that President Obama holds a 51% to 35% lead over presumptive Republican nominee Mitt Romney in the new district.

The poll of 400 likely voters had a 4.9-point margin of error and was conducted from March 26 to March 28. A more detailed poll memorandum is attached.


http://www.lex18.com/news/poll-chandler-has-comfortable-lead-over-barr-for-congress

...

Somewhat curiously, the news article at the link above states the following:

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Assuming that your text above is a quotation from what was at this link at the time you posted it, what seems probably to have happened is that the newspaper initially confused the presidential matchup with Romney's favorability but has now fixed it.
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,195
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84

« Reply #1 on: May 01, 2012, 11:05:28 AM »

Isn't this a rather good showing by Obama in KY-06 ?

Obama lost KY-06 by 43-55 in 2008.
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,195
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84

« Reply #2 on: May 01, 2012, 11:12:53 AM »

Isn't this a rather good showing by Obama in KY-06 ?

Obama lost KY-06 by 43-55 in 2008.

Well, it's a new district, so you can't exactly compare the two as equals.

Yeah, but the new KY-06 didn't change much. Only a few rural counties were changed.
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,195
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84

« Reply #3 on: May 01, 2012, 11:16:24 AM »

Isn't this a rather good showing by Obama in KY-06 ?

Obama lost KY-06 by 43-55 in 2008.
In addition, the survey found that the recently redrawn 6th district is very problematic for Republicans, with Democrats holding a 48% to 30% voter ID advantage over Republicans.

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