New DMR/Selzer Iowa General Election poll to be released tonight

[Tender Branson]

http://blogs.desmoinesregister.com/dmr/index.php/2012/02/16/iowa-poll-results-on-presidential-race-to-be-released-saturday-night

[Tender Branson]

In 2008, both the first Selzer poll in February and the last Selzer poll in late October showed Obama by 17 and were far off - Obama won by 10.

But Rasmussen had a Obama+3 poll in February, so the average was about Obama+10.

I think it will be closer than that this year and predict that Santorum is about tied with Obama and Romney trails by 3-5%

[Tender Branson]

I'll predict:

Obama +8 over Romney

Obama +9 over Santorum

Obama +10 over Paul

Obama +16 over Gingrich

I think Santorum will poll quite a bit better than Romney in IA, especially now.

[Tender Branson]

Seltzer polls are very accurate for Iowa.

In 2008, their last poll was Obama+17.

That's not accurate.