The FL Election Day & Results Thread (user search)
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Author Topic: The FL Election Day & Results Thread  (Read 12646 times)
Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,198
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84
« on: January 31, 2012, 03:07:48 AM »


...

CNN here:

http://www.cnn.com/election/2012/primaries/state/fl

Associated Press here:

http://hosted.ap.org/dynamic/files/elections/2012/by_state/FL_President_0131.html?SITE=AP&SECTION=POLITICS

http://hosted.ap.org/dynamic/files/elections/2012/by_county/FL_President_0131.html?SITE=AP&SECTION=POLITICS

...

First results & the Exit Poll numbers can be expected shortly after 7pm EST (1am Europe).
Logged
Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,198
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84
« Reply #1 on: January 31, 2012, 03:17:41 AM »
Quote from: redcommander on January 31, 2012, 03:14:45 AM
I expect the primary to be called for Romney shortly after polls close. Hopefully turnout is up from 2008.

A) Yes

B) I think so: most likely 2 Mio. to 2,4 Mio. voters
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,198
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84
« Reply #2 on: January 31, 2012, 07:59:28 AM »
Something else:

PPP doesn't know yet if they'll do NV, MN and CO caucus polls because they "are hard to poll".

http://twitter.com/ppppolls/status/164193902520320000
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,198
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84
« Reply #3 on: January 31, 2012, 07:08:44 PM »
The only question tonight will be if Romney breaks 50% and screw up my 2 points ...
Logged
Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,198
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84
« Reply #4 on: January 31, 2012, 07:14:22 PM »
The updated Drudge reported Exit Poll has now been altered to:

49% Romney
33% Gingrich
11% Santorum
  6% Paul

Should have sticked with my next-to-last prediction ... Tongue
Logged
Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,198
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84
« Reply #5 on: January 31, 2012, 07:17:26 PM »
Is the stuff that's coming in right now early votes only ?
Logged
Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,198
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84
« Reply #6 on: January 31, 2012, 07:19:07 PM »
If it's just early/absentee ballots at the moment, then ARG's 51-29 breakdown among early voters was pretty good ...
Logged
Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,198
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84
« Reply #7 on: January 31, 2012, 07:26:17 PM »
Quote from: Lief on January 31, 2012, 07:21:43 PM
Quote from: Tender Branson on January 31, 2012, 07:19:07 PM
If it's just early/absentee ballots at the moment, then ARG's 51-29 breakdown among early voters was pretty good ...

If ARG has suddenly become the most accurate pollster, then maybe 2012 is the end of the world.

Smiley
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,198
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84
« Reply #8 on: January 31, 2012, 07:49:23 PM »
Quote from: Eraserhead on January 31, 2012, 07:46:50 PM
Mitt's margin is decreasing at least. He's not gonna break 50% tonight, thankfully.

There's still the possibility that the ARG poll will be true: That means Gingrich down by only 10 or so.
Logged
Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,198
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84
« Reply #9 on: January 31, 2012, 07:56:24 PM »
Quote from: yourelection on January 31, 2012, 07:53:39 PM
CNN is getting excited... they get to announce that they have projected a winner.

IT WILL BE NEWT !
Logged
Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,198
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84
« Reply #10 on: January 31, 2012, 08:02:15 PM »
Exit Poll:

46.0% Romney
32.5% Gingrich
12.5% Santorum
  7.5% Paul
Logged
Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,198
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84
« Reply #11 on: January 31, 2012, 08:03:16 PM »
My prediction's going to be awesomely great if these exit poll numbers hold ... Wink
Logged
Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,198
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84
« Reply #12 on: January 31, 2012, 08:09:36 PM »
Looks like ARG's going to win this one ... Tongue

PPP, InsiderAdvantage and Suffolk were all meh ...
Logged
Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,198
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84
« Reply #13 on: January 31, 2012, 08:13:11 PM »
Why are 20% of voters Independents or Democrats ? Isn't this a closed primary ?
Logged
Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,198
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84
« Reply #14 on: January 31, 2012, 08:23:08 PM »
This one is slightly faster with counting/reporting the votes:

http://enight.elections.myflorida.com/Default.aspx
Logged
Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,198
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84
« Reply #15 on: January 31, 2012, 08:52:29 PM »
Turnout seems to be down compared with 2008.

1.9 million compared with about 2 million in 2008
Logged
Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,198
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84
« Reply #16 on: January 31, 2012, 09:18:50 PM »
GOP turnout looks like 1.85 million compared with 1.95 million in 2008.

In fact, only SC so far had more turnout than 2008. IA, NH, FL are all down.
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,198
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84
« Reply #17 on: February 01, 2012, 11:17:22 AM »
Posted by: CaDan

"This user is currently ignored."

This is fun !

Smiley
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