KY-PPP: Close presidential race among likely 2011 voters

[Tender Branson]

IMPORTANT NOTE:

"Poll respondents—likely voters in this fall’s gubernatorial election—report having voted for McCain over Obama by only four points, when he actually won by 16.  In that sense, Romney and Perry actually improve on McCain’s victory margin, despite their raw single-digit leads.  But Obama would outperform his 2008 pace in the state against the others, something we're finding in nearly every state.  This is the first state since we started polling Perry in the general election matchups a few weeks ago in which he has almost matched Romney's standing against the president.

In the end, Obama won't win Kentucky--not even close.  Republican voters don't seem too jazzed up by David Williams, so Democrats might have a good year this fall.  But conservatives will be back out in force next year, and Kentucky won't be near the top of any candidate's travel itinerary."



http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2011/PPP_Release_KY_0902.pdf

Obama vs. Romney

[Tender Branson]

Basically you should ignore this KY poll and the WV poll of next week, because Democrats are much more likely to turn out this fall then next year.

Therefore the results of these "likely 2011 voter" polls are distorting the real turnout of 2012.

You need to add about 12 points to each margin and you roughly have the current poll margin, using 2008 turnout.

[Tender Branson]

So much also to the claim by Bandit that KY would be close with Rick Perry.

The race would only be close if Obama and Perry would run for KY attorney general this year ...

[Tender Branson]

A quick re-weight of these PPP crosstabs to 2008 and 2004 KY exit poll turnout:

51-37 Romney vs. Obama (2008)
53-35 Romney vs. Obama (2004)

52-38 Perry vs. Obama (2008)
53-36 Perry vs. Obama (2004)

49-40 Bachmann vs. Obama (2008)
50-38 Bachmann vs. Obama (2004)

46-44 Palin vs. Obama (2008)
48-43 Palin vs. Obama (2004)