OR-01 special election: primary 11/8, general 1/31/12

[Tender Branson]

Grove Insight for EMILY's List push poll:

34% Suzanne Bonamici
10% Brad Witt
  8% Brad Avakian
48% Others/Undecided

When the candidates' biographies are listed, Bonamici's lead widens to 29 points, and she has the highest favorability of all the candidates.

The Democratic primary is on November 8, but ballots for the all-mail special election will go out beginning October 21.

http://hotlineoncall.nationaljournal.com/archives/2011/10/bonamici-holds.php

[Tender Branson]

SUSA poll has huge leads for Cornilles and Bonamici in the primaries.

No general election matchup ? Meh.

[Tender Branson]

Bonamici dominating another poll:

http://blog.oregonlive.com/mapesonpolitics/2011/10/bonamici_holds_strong_lead_in.html

[Tender Branson]

Cornilles internal:

46% Bonamici (D)
42% Cornilles (R)

http://hotlineoncall.nationaljournal.com/archives/2012/01/or-01-gop-poll.php

But both SUSA and PPP have recently shown Bonamici ahead by double-digits ...

[Tender Branson]

Supposedly the partisan breakdown of ballots returned so far is 48D-34R-18I. If true, this probably won't be close.

SurveyUSA and PPP both used a D+10 sample in their poll, so if it is D+14 with a 30% turnout already (like the article says), then she'll win by double-digits.

Unless the Republican has an absurdly good result among Independents, which is unlikely because Bonamici has better favorables among this group.

[Tender Branson]

I think I'll try a prediction:

56.2% Bonamici (D)
41.9% Cornilles (R)
  1.9% Others

[Tender Branson]

Democrats have a bigger turnout in OR-01 than Republicans:

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[Tender Branson]

If this 47D-35R-18I pattern holds and the usual exit poll rules apply (Bonamic gets about 90% of Dems, Cornilles 90% of Republicans and Independents are split), then Bonamici wins with about 55% of the vote.