UT-Dan Jones: Believe it or not, Utah's going to be a toss-up race

[Tender Branson]

47% Jim Matheson (D)
47% Orrin Hatch (R-Inc.)

46% Jason Chaffetz (R)
45% Jim Matheson (D)

Hatch's most likely GOP challenger appears to be Rep. Jason Chaffetz, R-Utah. In a primary race, 40 percent of poll respondents said they would vote for Hatch and 41 percent for Chaffetz.

Among a slightly smaller sample of voters who said they were likely to vote in a Republican primary, Hatch was ahead of Chaffetz, 47 percent to 44 percent.

A majority of Utah voters believe Sen. Orrin Hatch, R-Utah, has been in office too long and should be replaced, a new Deseret News/KSL-TV poll shows.

The poll by Dan Jones & Associates found only 38 percent of registered voters agree that it's important to re-elect Hatch in 2012 because of his seniority. Fifty-nine percent said after 36 years, it's time for someone new.

The statewide poll of 406 registered voters, conducted June 13-16, has a margin of error of plus or minus 5 percent. Dan Jones & Associates also does polling for Hatch.

http://www.deseretnews.com/article/700145325/Poll-Time-for-Hatch-to-go.html?pg=1

[Tender Branson]

Obama will be at the top of the ticket in 2012 which will boost black turnout and that might be enough to push Mattheson over the edge

There are Blacks in Utah ?



No, seriously, the race should remain close for another year or so and then I expect the Republican - whoever it may be - to break slightly away from Matheson and then to win 55-45.

[Tender Branson]

If Romney or Huntsman is the GOP nominee, Matheson will definitely not ride Obama's coattails to victory.

And I'm rooting for Matheson and everything - but is "Dan Jones" a legitimate pollster?

Dan Jones is the best UT pollster out there.

They got all the recent election results right within about 3-5%.