Swiss General Elections 2011 (Elections to the Federal Council)

[Tender Branson]

I`m happy to provide the graphics and links for my Swiss neighbour ...







http://www.gfsbern.ch/ArticlesDataHandler.ashx?ArticleId=417&Type=file&SubType=File2

[Tender Branson]

And what's BDP?

... and the BDP is a party founded by politicians who seceded from the Swiss People's Party in 2008 when the Swiss People's Party expelled Eveline-Widmer Schlumpf, member of the Federal Council. The party is very strong in certain regions of Switzerland (such as Bern, Glarus or Graubünden) but doesn't play a major role in the other parts of the country.

Sounds like the Swiss version of the BZÖ, who doesn't want to be seen as "radical" as their bigger "mother" party and paints itself as more economically and socially liberal. But "liberal" is a word that doesn't go over well here in Austria, and that's why "liberal" parties always fail here.

[Tender Branson]

New Isopublic Poll:

28.7% SVP
18.6% SP
13.9% FDP
13.2% CVP
  9.9% Greens
  8.0% Green-Liberals
  3.7% BDP
  4.0% Others

[Tender Branson]

The SVP is gearing up the ad campaign:

[Tender Branson]

I actually had to look up what "Schwinger-Freunde" are. I thought they are members of a swinger-club, but in fact it has to do with wrestling.

[Tender Branson]

The Austrian "Standard" newspaper has a good overview:



They are just throwing anything into the picture ...

BTW: I think the SVP will remain at about 26-28%, while the BDP could get more than 5%.

[Tender Branson]

I've just returned from my vote counting shift in my election district in Zurich. This year we started counting votes on Saturday so that the counting will be finished earlier on Sunday. We are not allowed to publish any numbers before noon tomorrow, but I will give you a hint regarding two parties: expect a very strong SVP and a great result for the Green-Liberal Party in the elections to the National Council.

ZuWo, did you count all the early postal votes today ?

What percentage historically are the early postal votes compared with the total votes cast ?

And as you say, you expect a good result for the SVP based on the postal votes that you counted: Is it the same in Switzerland like in Austria that the SVP and GLP (like the ÖVP and Greens) are better with postal votes than with actual election day votes ?

[Tender Branson]

I've just returned from my vote counting shift in my election district in Zurich. This year we started counting votes on Saturday so that the counting will be finished earlier on Sunday. We are not allowed to publish any numbers before noon tomorrow, but I will give you a hint regarding two parties: expect a very strong SVP and a great result for the Green-Liberal Party in the elections to the National Council.

ZuWo, did you count all the early postal votes today ?

What percentage historically are the early postal votes compared with the total votes cast ?

And as you say, you expect a good result for the SVP based on the postal votes that you counted: Is it the same in Switzerland like in Austria that the SVP and GLP (like the ÖVP and Greens) are better with postal votes than with actual election day votes ?

Yes, we counted all postal votes (roughly 8800 votes) in my election district, which accounts for more than 80% of the total number of votes. Thus, with around 20'000 people eligible to vote turnout will be a bit higher than 50%, which is quite high. More and more people have voted by post in the recent years, and as far as I know there is no great discrepancy between the postal vote and the votes cast on election day. (In Switzerland you can cast your vote on election day between 10 and 12 am, that's only 2 hours!) That's why I think the results are not going to change by much when the few remaining votes that will be cast tomorrow are counted.

Thx.

Yeah, if 80% of Swiss voters already voted with a postal ballot in advance you already have a good picture of what's going on.

Also, if only 20% of voters are voting on Sunday, I think 2 hours for them is enough ...

How was it in the past, when postal voting was not so common ? Didn't people complain about the 2 hour opening period ? Or was the opening period longer in the past ? And if it has always been only 2 hours, why wasn't it changed so people could vote between 8am and 6pm for example ?

BTW: In Austria, only 10% are voting with postal ballots - so there is a discrepancy between election day votes and postal votes. Postal votes always favor the ÖVP and Greens, while the FPÖ and the BZÖ loses. The SPÖ is flat.

[Tender Branson]

Prediction:

30% SVP
19% SP
14% CVP
13% FDP
  9% Greens
  6% Green-Liberals
  5% BDP
  4% Others

[Tender Branson]

What I also don't understand:

If you have already counted all postal votes by Saturday and only 20% of voters cast their ballot today, why are the first exit polls released at 7pm, when the polls close at noon ?

[Tender Branson]

Live stream (also for foreigners):

http://www.tagesschau.sf.tv/sfvideo/live/c49c1d6b-6ef0-0001-642b-1bc36d808500

[Tender Branson]

WTF ?

Graubünden: SVP 25%, BDP 20% = 45% (2007: SVP = 35%)

[Tender Branson]

I wonder if Franzl or Lewis understand what they are saying ...

[Tender Branson]

First national projection:

SVP: 26.8% (-2.1%)
SPS: 18.9% (-0.6%)
FDP: 15.0% (-2.7%)
CVP: 12.1% (-2.4%)
GPS: 8.3% (-1.3%)
GLP: 5.5% (+4.1%)
BDP: 5.4% (+5.4%)

This is a historical election in many respects. Congrats to TenderBranson, his prediction of the election result was way better than mine.

http://www.sf.tv/

Thx ...

Even though I first thought the SVP would get between 26-28%, I raised it to 30% because you said that we should expect the SVP to have a strong result. Maybe that was only the case for Zürich though.

[Tender Branson]

First national projection:

SVP: 26.8% (-2.1%)
SPS: 18.9% (-0.6%)
FDP: 15.0% (-2.7%)
CVP: 12.1% (-2.4%)
GPS: 8.3% (-1.3%)
GLP: 5.5% (+4.1%)
BDP: 5.4% (+5.4%)

This is a historical election in many respects. Congrats to TenderBranson, his prediction of the election result was way better than mine.

http://www.sf.tv/

Thx ...

Even though I first thought the SVP would get between 26-28%, I raised it to 30% because you said that we should expect the SVP to have a strong result. Maybe that was only the case for Zürich though.

It seems that is not really true though:

ZuWo, you had at least the FDP ahead of the CVP, I had it the other way round ...

[Tender Branson]

Good to see the SVP lose a bit of ground. Sad to see the Greens lose a bit of ground Wtf at SF1's headline saying the Green-Liberals and the BDP won this election, when all they did was get over 5%

They were the only parties that gained in percentage terms. That's why they are "winners".

[Tender Branson]

If I remember the few polls I've seen, it looks like the significant trends are SVP underperforming and the BDP overperforming. Right ?

Yeah, SVP underperforms by about 1-2%, CVP by about 2%, SP by about 1% and Greens by 1%.

BDP does better by about 2%, GLP by about 0.5%

[Tender Branson]

Compared with the months after Fukushima, the Greens are not really doing great:

They polled 10% after Fukushima and the Green-Liberals at 8%.

Now they got 8% and 5%.

[Tender Branson]

How much do you think did the SVP-BDP split cost the SVP alone in Graubünden, where the BDP got 21% and the SVP 24% ?

1% of their total loss ?

[Tender Branson]

Turnout was 48.6% ? That's quite awful...

It's always been that way in Switzerland. It probably has to do with the fact that Swiss think they get to vote on all the main laws in referendums anyway, so why go voting to elect the National- and Ständerat ?