VA-Roanoke College: Allen (R) leads Kaine (D) by 13

[Tender Branson]

In a very early look at the possible battle for the U.S. Senate seat being vacated by Sen. Jim Webb, registered voters in the Commonwealth preferred former Gov. and U.S. Sen. George Allen, a Republican, over former Gov. Tim Kaine, a Democrat, by 45 percent to 32 percent with 23 percent undecided. [Please note that the margin of error for this question was + 5.2 percent because it was asked only of the 360 registered voters in the sample.]

Among the battleground groups, Kaine led among political moderates (41%-34%), while Allen led among Independent voters (40%-35%). Not surprisingly, Allen led among Republicans (78%-4%) and conservatives (68%-10%) while Kaine led among Democrats (79%-12%) and liberals (83%-10%). Allen’s lead could be attributed to the large number of conservatives in Virginia, a finding that closely matches the December, 2010 Roanoke College Poll.

http://roanoke.edu/News_and_Events/Campus_News/RC_Poll_Spring_2011.htm

Update: Washington Post Polling Director Jon Cohen warns to be cautious of this poll. "Results were adjusted only for gender, and the resulting sample is not representative of Virginia's racial composition, its age structure or regional population densities. Each of these factors is related to partisan preferences."

http://politicalwire.com/archives/2011/04/07/allen_opens_early_lead_over_kaine.html

[Tender Branson]

Is VA-Roanoke College a reliable pollster?

More or less.

In 2010 they said Hurt 46% Perriello 40% - the end result was 51-47 Hurt.

In 2009 they said McDonnell by 53-36 - he won by 59-41.

In 2008 they said Obama by 48-39 and Warner by 57-22 - the end result was Obama by 53-46 and Warner by 65-34.

In 2006 they said Allen wins by 45-42, but finally Webb won by 0.4%

[Tender Branson]

Is VA-Roanoke College a reliable pollster?

More or less.

In 2010 they said Hurt 46% Perriello 40% - the end result was 51-47 Hurt.

In 2009 they said McDonnell by 53-36 - he won by 59-41.

In 2008 they said Obama by 48-39 and Warner by 57-22 - the end result was Obama by 53-46 and Warner by 65-34.

In 2006 they said Allen wins by 45-42, but finally Webb won by 0.4%

Thank you!

This doesn't mean though that this poll here is not flawed.

This poll only has 10% Blacks, in 2008 it was 20% Blacks.

In 2012, VA's Exit Poll will probably be about 65% White, 20% Black, 7% Hispanic, 5% Asian and 3% Others.

This poll here shows 85% Whites (!!!).

Even their 2008 pre-election poll showed 18% Blacks.