PA-PPP: Rick Santorum is already toast (sort of)

[Tender Branson]

Santorum weak on the home front

If Rick Santorum's really going to run for President he'd better hope folks in other states respond more positively to him than the ones in Pennsylvania who know him best.

Just finished crunching the numbers on our first poll of 2011, which we'll start rolling out in full tomorrow. For now here's what we found on Santorum:

-Only 38% of voters in the state have a favorable opinion of him to 44% with a negative one. His numbers are particularly bad with independents whose ratings of him break down 30/54.

-Santorum trails Barack Obama 48-40 in a hypothetical contest, despite the fact that Obama's approval numbers in Pennsylvania continue to be under water. Most striking are a 20 point advantage for Obama with independents and the fact that he pulls 79% of Democrats while only 72% of Republicans are committed to Santorum.

-Most worrisome for Santorum are his GOP primary numbers though. The 54% of home state Republicans with a favorable opinion of him is well behind the 64% who like Mike Huckabee and the 63% who like Sarah Palin, equal to the percentage who like Newt Gingrich, and just a hair above the 52% who like Mitt Romney. On the horse race question just 11% say Santorum would be their top choice as the party's nominee, putting him in 5th place behind those other four.

We've written a lot about how tepid Minnesota voters are toward Tim Pawlenty's candidacy but he's at least the top choice of Republicans in the state. Santorum doesn't even come close. Ultimately Pennsylvania is not likely to be real important to the GOP nomination process but Santorum needs voters in places like New Hampshire and Iowa to end up liking him better than the ones on the home front do.

http://publicpolicypolling.blogspot.com/2011/01/santorum-weak-on-home-front.html

[Tender Branson]

Phil's world collapsing in 3, 2, 1 ...

[Tender Branson]

The real numbers are:

If the Republican candidates for President next year were Mitch Daniels, Newt Gingrich, Mike Huckabee, Sarah Palin, Ron Paul, Tim Pawlenty, Mitt Romney, and Rick Santorum who would you vote for?

Mike Huckabee ............................................... 21%
Sarah Palin ..................................................... 18%
Newt Gingrich ................................................. 16%
Mitt Romney.................................................... 14%
Rick Santorum ................................................ 11%
Tim Pawlenty .................................................. 6%
Ron Paul......................................................... 4%
Mitch Daniels .................................................. 1%
Someone else/Undecided............................... 8%

If the Republican candidates for President next year were just Mitch Daniels, Newt Gingrich, Mike Huckabee, Sarah Palin, Ron Paul, Tim Pawlenty, and Mitt Romney who would you vote for?

Mike Huckabee ............................................... 26%
Sarah Palin ..................................................... 21%
Mitt Romney.................................................... 16%
Newt Gingrich ................................................. 15%
Tim Pawlenty .................................................. 6%
Ron Paul......................................................... 5%
Mitch Daniels .................................................. 2%
Someone else/Undecided............................... 9%

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/PPP_Release_PA_0110424.pdf