How would you vote ...

[Tender Branson]

That I find interesting. Austrians support tuition fees?

Yes. There have always been huge margins in favor of tuition fees in past polls.

It's only students (and former students I guess) and Green voters and a small fringe in the SPÖ that supports it.

[Tender Branson]

I would support abolishing it in Austria, here in Israel it is still necessary though.

I fail to see how it could be necessary in one country and abolishable in another, and how one could have geographically varying values and convictions, but maybe that's just me...

The two countries have very different circumstances. If Austria didn't have an army, nothing much would change. If Israel didn't have an army, they would quickly be invaded and destroyed.

Indeed. We could outsource our defense to Germany, so they can take care of us in case of war.

There is an old joke regarding this:

In a bar, the Austrian and German defense ministers are debating what to do in case of war between the 2 countries. Says the German defense minister: "What would you do if we attack you ?"

Answer from the Austrian defense minister: "We would summon every man between 18 and 60, fully arm them and throw everything against you what we have, even if we are less numerous than you are and fight until the last man !"

After this, the Austrian defense minister asks the same: "What would you do if we attack Germany ?"

German defense minister: "I don't really know. The police station in Bad Reichenhall is responsible for such a scenario."

[Tender Branson]

I agree with Danny that Israel is better off with a drafted army, considering the threats around it (even though I guess it wouldn't have much problems either to draft voluntary man/women to defend the country if it introduces a professional army).

On the other hand, I'm leaning more towards ending the draft here in Austria in Jan. once again.

[Tender Branson]

A few more draft-related polls out today:

Gallup for Ö24:

46% for the draft
46% against the draft

78% of those polled say they will vote in the January referendum.

http://www.ots.at/presseaussendung/OTS_20120922_OTS0054/spoe-verliert-fpoe-gewinnt-in-neuer-gallup-oesterreich-umfrage

Karmasin for Profil:

How do you think Austrians will vote in January ?

49% - Austrians will vote to keep the draft
38% - Austrians will vote to abolish the draft

What do you think is the most important job for the Austrian Military ?

71% to help when there are natural catastrophes
14% to keep the border safe
10% to keep the country safe militarily

http://www.ots.at/presseaussendung/OTS_20120922_OTS0009/profil-umfrage-mehrheit-glaubt-dass-wehrpflicht-bleibt

[Tender Branson]

A new poll in Tirol shows that the state overwhelmingly favors keeping the draft:

53% keep the draft
35% against the draft
  6% Austria doesn't need an army at all
  6% undecided

Men back the draft by 55-33 and women by 51-37.

69% of FPÖ-voters as well as 59% of ÖVP and Dinkhauser voters support the draft.

A plurality of 49-43 of SPÖ voters also favor the draft.

Only Green voters oppose it 53-34.

In case the draft is abolished, Tyrolians want:

42% create a MANDATORY social year for both MEN and WOMEN
10% create a MANDATORY social year for MEN only
38% create a VOLUNTARY social year with good payment

45% of men and 41% of women want the MANDATORY social year for both MEN and WOMEN.

http://www.tt.com/Nachrichten/5446560-2/mehrheit-f%C3%BCr-die-wehrpflicht.csp

[Tender Branson]

A new Market poll shows a majority of 53% for the professional army.

The Market polls are really bouncing around a lot: Just a month ago, the draft led with over 60%, but in May the professional army was also ahead, just like now.

http://derstandard.at/1348283738343/90-Prozent-wollen-an-Wehrpflicht-Volksbefragung-teilnehmen

At least there's good news from the turnout front: The poll finds that 58% of those polled say that they will "definitely" vote on Jan. 20, while another 32% say they are "likely" to vote. Just 10% say they are unlikely to vote. Which means "real" turnout between 70-80% is possible (some of the "likely" voters will stay at home).

[Tender Branson]

New "Format" poll about what to do if the draft and mandatory civil service fails in the referendum:



  9% want a mandatory civil service for MEN only
49% want a mandatory civil service for MEN & WOMEN

40% want a voluntary civil service

  2% say that the civil service is not needed at all

Interesting also that 60% of women favor some kind of mandatory civil service, while only 56% of men say so. Even though more men than women also want women included in a mandatory civil service (52-46). More women on the other hand want a mandatory men-only civil service (14-4).

[Tender Branson]

ATV Austria Trend:

39% for professional army
37% for retaining the draft
24% undecided

Turnout: 40% definitely vote, 35% probably vote, 14% probably not vote, 9% definitely not vote.

SPÖ/Green voters are more likely vote vote than Frank Stronach voters. ÖVP/FPÖ voters are about average.

Among the 40% who say they will definitely vote, the draft leads by 48-46 though.

Among the 35% who say they will probably vote, the professional army leads by 46-40.

By party:

SPÖ: 54-36 professional army
ÖVP: 63-18 draft
FPÖ: 41-38 professional army
BZÖ: 42-36 draft
Greens: 52-21 professional army
Stronach: 39-34 professional army
Others: 40-17 professional army

http://atv.at/binaries/asset/download_assets/2894800/file

[Tender Branson]

Why are the fascists against slavery?

Because they are the Freedom Party of Austria ...

[Tender Branson]

Among the 40% who say they will definitely vote, the draft leads by 48-46 though.

Among the 35% who say they will probably vote, the professional army leads by 46-40.

Anyway, considering this, the result among the 75% who say they are likely to vote is:

46% professional army
44% draft

The number of undecideds here (10%) compared to the original question (24%) is pushed up by a HUGE undecided share among unlikely voters.

[Tender Branson]

Referendum remains tight:

51-49 for the draft now according to Gallup

http://www.oe24.at/oesterreich/politik/Mehrheit-fuer-Wehr-Pflicht/80166330

[Tender Branson]

Salzburg Governor Gabriele Burgstaller from the Social Democrats has recently been attacked for saying "young men benefit from a few months in the military", with the news media running headlines like "Gov. Burgstaller from the SPÖ backs the draft".



The SPÖ party line is to abolish the draft. But yesterday she clarified her comments and said "she's still undecided about how to vote in the January referendum", but that "she clearly remains in favor of retaining the Civil Service".

I think she's secretly clearly in favor of the draft.

Burgstaller is more conservative than the average SPÖ folks and also supports tuition fees for universities, something that is contrary to the SPÖ-party line.  But maybe that's the reason why the SPÖ has around 40% in Salzburg state elections, compared to only 26-29% on the national level, because Burgstaller is also attracting many ÖVP- and FPÖ-voters. She is probably what would be described as a "Blue Dog Democrat" in the Southern US.

Also, Salzburg City mayor Heinz Schaden (also from the SPÖ) is backing the draft system.

And: The Salzburg state government (SPÖ-ÖVP) is the only government to send out a brochure that explains the positions on both issues (keeping or abolishing the draft), which is similar to what happens in Switzerland before each referendum.

http://derstandard.at/1348285168931/Bundesheer-Burgstaller-an-sachlicher-Debatte-interessiert

[Tender Branson]

Some are speculating that Burgstaller is already planning for the Presidential election in 2016 against the powerful Lower Austrian governor Erwin Pröll (ÖVP).

The Salzburg state election will be held in 2014 and if she wins for a 3rd time, after 2004 and 2009, she could give up her governor post in 2015 so that her deputy David Brenner takes over and plan for 2016.

David Brenner (also from the SPÖ) is currently quite popular and would become a very young governor (aged 44 in 2015), the youngest in all 9 states:

[Tender Branson]

ATV Austria Trend:

39% for professional army
37% for retaining the draft
24% undecided

Turnout: 40% definitely vote, 35% probably vote, 14% probably not vote, 9% definitely not vote.

SPÖ/Green voters are more likely vote vote than Frank Stronach voters. ÖVP/FPÖ voters are about average.

Among the 40% who say they will definitely vote, the draft leads by 48-46 though.

Among the 35% who say they will probably vote, the professional army leads by 46-40.

By party:

SPÖ: 54-36 professional army
ÖVP: 63-18 draft
FPÖ: 41-38 professional army
BZÖ: 42-36 draft
Greens: 52-21 professional army
Stronach: 39-34 professional army
Others: 40-17 professional army

http://atv.at/binaries/asset/download_assets/2894800/file

aren't BZO and Stronach officially against conscription?

Yes, but that doesn't mean all their voters have to vote "No" on the draft ...

[Tender Branson]

New Gallup poll:

52-48 for the draft

http://www.ots.at/presseaussendung/OTS_20121006_OTS0056/oesterreich-umfrage-keine-mehrheit-mehr-fuer-rot-schwarze-koalition

[Tender Branson]

Austrians are now lining up to support the draft in huge numbers (as I expected):

GALLUP/Ö24:

58% draft
42% professional army

Retired people and voters in the western states are most in favor of keeping the draft.

http://www.ots.at/presseaussendung/OTS_20121020_OTS0047/oesterreich-erstmals-klare-mehrheit-fuer-wehrpflicht

Gallup has previously shown the referendum within 2%, so this is big news ...

[Tender Branson]

Gallup again shows the draft leading 58-42 this week:

http://www.oe24.at/oesterreich/politik/58-Prozent-sind-fuer-die-Wehrpflicht/83136292

Projected turnout: 77%

[Tender Branson]

New OGM/Kurier poll:



Professional army leads 46-44, but that's down from 46-40 in September.

Among the 70% which have already made up their mind, the draft leads 54-44 (up from 51-49 in September).

About 75% (+2) want to vote in the referendum, 18% not and 7% are undecided.

[Tender Branson]

New Gallup/Ö24 poll:



56.5% keeping the draft
43.5% professional army

Especially women (61-39) and old people (62-38) are in favor of keeping the draft.

Young voters below the age of 30 back the professional army with 54-46.

http://www.oe24.at/oesterreich/politik/Umfrage-SPOe-kriselt-Frank-lacht/84647217

[Tender Branson]

People who will never be drafted favor the draft... Shocking.

Or in the case of old people (the men) have already been drafted and who say: "If I had to do it and it didn't kill me, the young people of today should do it as well, because they will learn from it."

[Tender Branson]

People who will never be drafted favor the draft... Shocking.

Or in the case of old people (the men) have already been drafted and who say: "If I had to do it and it didn't kill me, the young people of today should do it as well, because they will learn from it."

Well, this is basically my attitude also.

This last poll is actually quite surprising, because usually it seems to be the men who are more in favor of keeping the draft (or installing the draft in countries with none).

That's also so in Finland. For example the last year's poll (by Taloustutkimus)  found out that 82% of Finns support keeping the draft, while 16% would prefer abolishing it and replacing it with something else. Of men 84% were in favor and of women 80%. There was, though, a somewhat higher amount of younger people (18-34 years) who want to abolish the draft, but even in that age group 72% were in favor.

What's the reason for the high support of the draft ? Russia being nearby, or the fact that the system works just fine in Finland (does it) ?

It's doubtful that the opposition to draft would be significantly higher among young men than among general population in Austria either.

The official referendum exit poll will shed more light on this ...

[Tender Branson]

New Market poll for the "Standard":

52% draft
47% professional army

What do you think the outcome of the referendum will be like ?

65% say people will vote to keep the draft
34% say people will vote to abolish the draft

Projected turnout:

51% will definitely vote
37% will likely vote
12% are unlikely to vote

http://derstandard.at/1350261636999/Keine-stabile-Mehrheit-fuer-Wehrpflicht

A new Spectra poll takes a slightly different approach:

90% of Austrians polled have heard/read that there will be a draft referendum in 2 months.

92% of men, 87% of women, 82% of younger voters and 92% each of middle-aged and old people have heard/read about it.

72% of the people polled are also aware that if the draft is rejected in the referendum, the mandatory civil service is also abolished. 28% didn't know it.

66% of the people polled also say that the possible end of the civil service will mean PROBLEMS for institutions like the Red Cross, hospitals, retirement homes etc. - while only 13% say there will be no problems.

Spectra then informed one half of the polling sample with detailed information about the 2 models from the SPÖ (wants to abolish the draft) and the ÖVP (wants to keep the draft) and then asked them how they'd vote, while NOT informing the other half of the sample and also asked how they'd vote:

INFORMED half of the sample:

32% for the draft model
29% for the professional army model
26% undecided
13% wouldn't vote in the referendum

UNINFORMED half of the sample:

45% for the draft model
19% for the professional army model
27% undecided
  9% wouldn't vote in the referendum

http://www1.spectra.at/cms/index.php?eID=tx_mm_bccmsbase_zip&id=42835660850a6a11670b04

I find it interesting that in both polls, about 87-90% of people say they are likely to vote in the referendum. I think the actual turnout will be much lower, because a big share of those who say they are "likely to vote" will probably stay at home. So, more like 70-75% turnout, which would also not be bad for a referendum.

Also, I find it interesting too that more people say they are staying at home when they are informed about the 2 models ... Shouldn't it be the opposite ?

[Tender Branson]

New "Profil" poll:

52% will vote to keep the draft
37% will vote to abolish it

http://www.ots.at/presseaussendung/OTS_20121117_OTS0007/profil-umfrage-52-der-oesterreicher-fuer-wehrpflicht

[Tender Branson]

The draft is strongly favored in my home state of Salzburg, according to a new poll by IGF (even top SPÖ-politicians like the Salzburg City Mayor favor the draft):



63% draft
37% professional army

Projected January draft-referendum turnout in the State of Salzburg:



74% will vote
17% will not vote
  9% undecided

http://www.salzburger-fenster.at/redaktion/aktuelle_berichte/sf_umfrage_so_steht_es_im_land_spoe_38_oevp_37_fpoe_12_gruene_10_art1992/

[Tender Branson]

The BMI (Interior Ministry) has issued a 60-page guide about the organisation of the referendum.

Like in every other election here, every Austrian citizen aged 16+ will be automatically eligible to vote on Jan. 20.

The exact number of eligible voters will be known by December 19, when the Election Commission releases the numbers.

It also says that every eligible voter has to receive a election information card with their precinct on it, at least 3 days ahead of the referendum.

Voting on election day will open at 8am and close at 5pm.

There will be about 15.000 polling stations for about 6.350.000 eligible voters, so about 450 voters per polling station.

http://www.bmi.gv.at/cms/BMI_wahlen/volksbefragung/files/Leitfaden_Volksbefragung2013_Gesamt.pdf