PA: Quinnipiac University: Toomey's (R) lead down to 2 points

[Tender Branson]

New Poll: Pennsylvania Senator by Quinnipiac University on 2010-10-19

Summary: D: 46%, R: 48%, I: 0%, U: 5%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details

[Tender Branson]

Well, the main difference between this and the PPP poll is that Sestak does much better with the base in the Quinnipiac poll (getting almost 90%), but he does much worse among Independents. PPP had him tied with Independents, while Quinnipiac shows Sestak trailing by 20.

So, it´s almost guaranteed that Sestak will get 90% of Democrats on Election Day, but I can´t say much about Independents. I can only say that he has to at least achieve a tie with them to win the race, or not lose by more than 5 points.

[Tender Branson]

Yep, this race is 100% tied now.

[Tender Branson]

Q is great in some states, but PA is not one of them.  It's okay for PA, but not the best.  I'd go with F & M, if one comes out, for PA.

Still, I ecpect that the race is closing, maybe within MOE.

F&M has 40% undecided 1 week ahead of the election ...