KY: Survey USA: In a dramatic shift, Conway catches Paul

[Tender Branson]

New Poll: Kentucky Senator by Survey USA on 2010-09-23

Summary: D: 47%, R: 49%, I: 0%, U: 4%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details

[Tender Branson]

I was expecting this, because the district results by Braun research were indicating a tight race, not a 15-point Paul advantage.

[Tender Branson]

This is how SUSA defines the KY regions:



Grey: Western
Green: Louisville
Yellow: North-Central
Red: Eastern

[Tender Branson]

The poll assumes that the makeup of the electorate will be more Democratic than 2008.  If we adjust it so that the partisan makeup of the poll is the same as 2008, Paul leads by 7 points.  In other words, it's a bad poll.

That depends on the measure. You can take the KY Secretary of State numbers or the Exit polls:

The KY SoS numbers for 2008: 58% DEM, 37% GOP, 5% Others

http://www.elect.ky.gov/NR/rdonlyres/31C5D630-440B-4018-82F5-5E9E438B2C7F/176733/turnoutSUMMARYGEN08.txt

The 2008 Exit Poll for KY: 47% DEM, 38% GOP, 15% Others

http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/results/polls/#KYP00p1

[Tender Branson]

Yup. SurveyUSA just suckkkkks this year.

This is not unusual:

2008-09-22   Survey USA   R +3
2008-08-11   Survey USA   R +12

https://uselectionatlas.org/POLLS/SENATE/2008/polls.php?fips=21