Chile 2009-2010 (user search)
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Author Topic: Chile 2009-2010  (Read 9450 times)
Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,201
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84

« on: December 10, 2009, 01:21:05 AM »

I think Sebastián Piñera will be elected President by a good enough margin.

The last polls I have seen have it 44-31-18-7 for Piñera in the first round and 49-32 in the second over Frei and 47-35 over Ominami.

The CERC polled 1,200 Chileans from all over the country between November 24 and December 5. It has a margin error of 3 percent.

http://www.americasquarterly.org/node/1106
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,201
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84

« Reply #1 on: December 10, 2009, 01:31:44 AM »

According to recent polls, Chilean President Michelle Bachelet has a 83% approval rating now.

Last time I checked the Chile polls a few months ago, it was at about 40%.

What caused this spectacular rise ?
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,201
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84

« Reply #2 on: December 12, 2009, 01:10:15 AM »

Prediction for tomorrow:

Piñera: 48%
Ominami: 24%
Frei: 22%
Arrate: 6%

I predict an upset advancement to the second round for Ominami, even though the electoral system is pointing to the other direction (Frei in second place): The Chile election system prevents many young voters from registering because of the mandatory voting and young voters are the most likely to back Ominami, but maybe older left-wing voters are tired of Frei and vote for Ominami instead.
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,201
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84

« Reply #3 on: December 14, 2009, 12:47:08 AM »

Prediction for tomorrow:

Piñera: 48%
Ominami: 24%
Frei: 22%
Arrate: 6%

I predict an upset advancement to the second round for Ominami, even though the electoral system is pointing to the other direction (Frei in second place): The Chile election system prevents many young voters from registering because of the mandatory voting and young voters are the most likely to back Ominami, but maybe older left-wing voters are tired of Frei and vote for Ominami instead.

OK, what I feared became the reality ...
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,201
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84

« Reply #4 on: December 26, 2009, 02:23:01 AM »

Frei is gaining ground:

Sebastián Piñera: 52.7% (-3.2)
Eduardo Frei: 47.3% (+3.2)

Source: Universidad del Desarrollo / La Segunda Methodology: Telephone interviews with 1,203 Chilean adults, conducted on Dec. 17, 2009. Margin of error is 3.2 per cent.

http://www.angus-reid.com/polls/view/34736/piera_could_defeat_frei_in_chilean_ballot
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,201
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84

« Reply #5 on: January 14, 2010, 03:31:25 AM »

Still getting closer:

SANTIAGO (Reuters) - Conservative billionaire Sebastian Pinera is poised to narrowly win Chile's presidency in a Sunday run-off with 50.9 percent of the vote, pollster MORI said Wednesday, within the survey's margin of error.

Pinera was seen defeating ex-President Eduardo Frei, who the poll gave 49.1 percent of the vote, wresting power from the centre-left coalition that has ruled Chile for two decades since the end of General Augusto Pinochet's 1973-1990 dictatorship.

MORI said the poll had a margin of error of 3 percent, and comprised interviews with 1,200 people across Chile between January 1 and January 9.

Maverick leftist backs Chile's Frei for presidency

SANTIAGO, Jan 13 (Reuters) - Eduardo Frei, the candidate of Chile's ruling center-left coalition, won the endorsement of a former independent candidate on Wednesday, which could raise his hopes of beating the conservative rival tipped to win Sunday's presidential run-off.

Former film producer Marco Enriquez-Ominami had polled third in a December first round vote and missed the run-off, triggering a fierce battle between Frei and center-right billionaire Sebastian Pinera to woo his 20 percent support.

"Given the uncertainty that the right could block Chile's march toward the future, it is my responsibility to contribute what I can so it doesn't happen," Enriquez-Ominami, the son of a leftist guerrilla leader slain during General Augusto Pinochet's 1973-1990 dictatorship, told a news conference in parliament.

"So I formally declare my decision to support the people's candidate who won 29 percent of the vote on December 13," he said, referring to Frei, whom he had until now refused to endorse despite repeated appeals and concessions by the ruling coalition.

Sunday's vote is expected to be very close, and a new poll on Wednesday showed Pinera having a slight edge over Frei, a former president. Analysts have said it may be too late for an Enriquez-Ominami endorsement to tilt the balance in Frei's favor. [ID:nSAG002485] [ID:nN11148091]

Enriquez-Ominami said the right, now led by Pinera, was responsible for his father's killing.

Pinera, who ranks No. 701 on the Forbes global rich list, won 44 percent in the December vote while Frei took 29.6 percent. It was the first time the right had won more votes than the left in a presidential vote since Chile returned to democracy in 1990.

A poll published by respected pollster MORI on Wednesday showed Pinera winning Sunday's run-off with 50.9 percent of the vote, against 49.1 percent for Frei -- within the survey's 3 percent margin of error.

Few expect any major change to prudent policies that have made World No.1 copper producer Chile a beacon of economic stability in the emerging world, whoever wins.

http://www.reuters.com/article/idUSN1313013020100113
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,201
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84

« Reply #6 on: January 17, 2010, 02:43:55 AM »

Time for my prediction:

Pinera: 51.08%
Frei: 48.92%
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