German Election Results Thread

[Tender Branson]

Caren Marks (SPD) barely holds Hannover-Land I with a 0.5%-advantage.

[Tender Branson]

Franzl's district is in:

Patricia Lips (CDU) wins with 40.4% to 29.6% for the SPD guy.

[Tender Branson]

CDU picks up Osterholz-Verden by 0.5%.

[Tender Branson]

LINKE gains Rostock.

[Tender Branson]

Northern Munich goes to the CSU.

Is it a complete CSU sweep in Bavaria now ?

[Tender Branson]

CDU will probably win Freiburg too, making it a complete sweep for the Union in the South (Bavaria and Baden-Württemberg).

[Tender Branson]

CDU will probably win Mannheim too, making it a complete sweep for the Union in the South (Bavaria and Baden-Württemberg).

You mean Freiburg?

Already corrected.

[Tender Branson]

Meh. Kaiserslautern and Worms makes the map look odd.

[Tender Branson]

SPD holds Freiburg by about 4%.

[Tender Branson]

Al the maps are great!  Soo... when can we expect the others?

Now:

[Tender Branson]

Leading Party in every Constituency (List Vote):



Source: www.election.de

[Tender Branson]

Final results for the 2 state elections:

Schleswig-Holstein:

CDU: 31.5% (-8.6%, 34 seats)
SPD: 25.4% (-13.2%, 25 seats)
FDP: 14.9% (+8.3%, 15 seats)
Greens: 12.4% (+6.2%, 12 seats)
Left: 6.0% (+5.2%, 5 seats)
SSW: 4.3% (+0.7%, 4 seats)
Pirates: 1.8% (+1.8%)
FW: 1.0% (+1.0%)
Others: 2.7%

CDU/FDP: 46.4% (49 seats)
SPD/Greens/Left/SSW: 48.1% (46 seats)

Brandenburg:

SPD: 33.0% (+1.1%, 31 seats)
Left: 27.2% (-0.8%, 26 seats)
CDU: 19.8% (+0.4%, 19 seats)
FDP: 7.2% (+3.9%, 7 seats)
Greens: 5.6% (+2.0%, 5 seats)
3 Nazis: 3.9% (-2.2%)
FW: 1.7% (+1.7%)
Others: 1.6%

Probably a Grand-Coalition between SPD and CDU.

[Tender Branson]

Is Stuttgart suburbia in Baden-Wurttemburg that large and wealthy?

Somebody also explain what's up with FDP support in the Rhineland-Palatinate. I don't recall there being any wealthy suburbia or cities in those areas it does well in.

Take this purchasing power map of Germany into context:



Yes, the Stuttgart area is really well off. Also notice the region around Munich with the district Starnberg having the highest purchasing power in Germany, the Main-Taunus area north-west of Frankfurt, Southern NRW and the region around Hamburg.

The region is western Rhineland with the high FDP-share is probably due to the proximity of Luxembourg. Many people commute there to work in the financial and insurance sector I guess.

[Tender Branson]

Here's a good overview chart of the results:

[Tender Branson]

What does the chart on the right hand side with the arrows pointing in and away from the various boxes mean?

It´s the so called "Wählerstromanalyse" (Electoral Flow Analysis). It shows how many voters each party gained or lost from another party or from non-voters compared with the 2005 elections.

[Tender Branson]

What does the chart on the right hand side with the arrows pointing in and away from the various boxes mean?

It´s the so called "Wählerstromanalyse" (Electoral Flow Analysis). It shows how many voters each party gained or lost from another party or from non-voters compared with the 2005 elections.

And how can you guys tell that? Exit polling?

It`s complicated and only an estimate. SORA, which does this stuff here in Austria explains it in English:

How does the analysis of voter transitions work?

The voter transition analysis works without questioning individuals. Only aggregated data as election results of municipalities, communities, wards, etc. are used. Statistical correlations generated from these results allow predictions for possible electoral behaviour.

The idea is a simple one: if a party gains most votes in those municipalities in which another party had the most votes at the election before, it is interpreted as a vote transition between those parties.

This method is called multiple regression: "Regression" because we trace back the parties' results of the current election to the parties' results of the comparable election, and "Multiple" because we relate a party's current election result to the results of all parties of the comparable election.

The equation of voter transition analysis from the national election 1995 to the national election 1999 would look like this:

ÖVP04 = b1 × SPÖ99 + b2 × ÖVP99 + b3 × FPÖ99 + b4 × LIF99 + b5 × Greens99 + b6 × others99 + b7 × non voters99

http://www.sora.at/en/start.asp?b=266

[Tender Branson]

What would the results be if all the left parties and all the right parties ran together?

First we have to define what is "left" and what is "right":

Left: SPD, Left, Greens, Pirates, ARP

Right: CDU/CSU, FDP, NPD, REP, DVU

Don't know what to do with the ÖDP, the conservative Bavarian version of the Greens. They are probably completely "center".

Anway, with the above classification you get the following numbers for Germany:

Right: 50.4%
Left: 48.1%

[Tender Branson]

What would the results be if all the left parties and all the right parties ran together?

First we have to define what is "left" and what is "right":

Left: SPD, Left, Greens, Pirates, ARP

Right: CDU/CSU, FDP, NPD, REP, DVU

Don't know what to do with the ÖDP, the conservative Bavarian version of the Greens. They are probably completely "center".

Anway, with the above classification you get the following numbers for Germany:

Right: 50.4%
Left: 48.1%

That's about right. I'm more interested in constituency numbers, actually.

Here you have all the constituency results in English. Just add the numbers up if you like:

http://www.bundeswahlleiter.de/en/bundestagswahlen/BTW_BUND_09/ergebnisse/wahlkreisergebnisse/

(will take a while) ...