IMHO, John McCain can get to 2022 before dying. After all, he's a fighter his mother Roberta McCain is still alive today at 106 years old so he has good genes.
When it comes to who could run for his seat, I would say someone like Martha McSally if she doesn't win in 2018 or Ben Quayle.
The average prognosis for his cancer is 12-15 months. He was diagnosed last July. This news isn't shocking though, I expected Meghan to be appointed but Cindy isn't the most shocking pick. Ultimately, this whole situation is tragic, good for Ducey if he appoints a non-politician to replace McCain.