I think Palin will be the clear frontrunner, given her name recognition. Yes, she left office unpopular, but that was over a decade ago. She will fit in well with today's Republican Party, and I expect she'll get the Trump endorsement.
The Trump endorsement means nothing in Alaska. Otherwise we wouldn’t have Lisa Murkowski in the Senate.
Murkowski hasn't been up for re-election since Trump was elected so his endorsement hasn't been tested yet.
Is there a chance she loses the seat?
Yes. I'm not saying it's likely but it will be close either way.
What needs to happen in order for Palin to lose the seat?
Oh I was talking about Murkowski.
Palin is very likely to win the seat, the only way she could lose is if she and a more moderate R like Begich made the final round and she gets eliminated.
Is Begich really a moderate? He was challenging Don Young from the right.