2020 Redistricting in Pennsylvania

[Not Me, Us]

State House map might actually put me in a blue seat, which would be absolutely amazing and will therefore not happen.

[Not Me, Us]

All things considered Cartwright's district is pretty compact for how D-leaning it is. Interesting to go after Smucker instead of Perry, though it may be prudent as York's pastorals/ex-sundown towns are more conservative than Lancaster's.

Lancaster is quite fertile ground in general for Democrats. The city itself is growing, the suburban areas of the county are trending Blue, and the blood red rurals are losing population quite quickly. Lancaster County could flip in a decade or two.

[Not Me, Us]

All things considered Cartwright's district is pretty compact for how D-leaning it is. Interesting to go after Smucker instead of Perry, though it may be prudent as York's pastorals/ex-sundown towns are more conservative than Lancaster's.

Lancaster is quite fertile ground in general for Democrats. The city itself is growing, the suburban areas of the county are trending Blue, and the blood red rurals are losing population quite quickly. Lancaster County could flip in a decade or two.

Aren't the rurals gaining population due to Amish growth ?

Technically you're right, the Amish f*** like rabbits. However, for political purposes, this fact is largely irrelevant, since barely any Amish people vote. They just aren't a significant factor in electoral politics. Plus, Lancaster City and its suburbs are growing at a much faster rate anyway.

[Not Me, Us]

All things considered Cartwright's district is pretty compact for how D-leaning it is. Interesting to go after Smucker instead of Perry, though it may be prudent as York's pastorals/ex-sundown towns are more conservative than Lancaster's.

Lancaster is quite fertile ground in general for Democrats. The city itself is growing, the suburban areas of the county are trending Blue, and the blood red rurals are losing population quite quickly. Lancaster County could flip in a decade or two.

Aren't the rurals gaining population due to Amish growth ?

Technically you're right, the Amish f*** like rabbits. However, for political purposes, this fact is largely irrelevant, since barely any Amish people vote. They just aren't a significant factor in electoral politics. Plus, Lancaster City and its suburbs are growing at a much faster rate anyway.

https://lancasteronline.com/news/local/was-2020-a-breakout-year-for-amish-voters-heres-what-the-numbers-show/article_f77af684-32a7-11eb-b3ec-13a56697652f.html

It's an increase of a couple of thousand votes. The large majority of Amish people do not vote. That may be changing, it's a little early to tell, but it remains the case.