How will Menendez’s indictment affect the 2025 NJ-GOV race?

[Senator Incitatus]

By taking one or more of the contenders (Sherrill, Gottheimer, even Fulop) out to focus on that Senate race.

If the administration had any role in covering it up (as the indictment suggests Murphy’s Attorney General, Grewal, failed to report Menendez’s attempt to strong-arm the OAG), that could have longer political legs, but until then, nothing beyond shuffling the candidates.

I wouldn’t be surprised if Republicans and Norcross allies get together on a probe of Murphy—but I would be surprised if that actually led anywhere. This will probably fade away for New Jersey Democrats.

[Senator Incitatus]

Republican legislative candidates in competitive races are trying to tie their opponents to Menendez: https://newjerseyglobe.com/legislature/gop-senate-assembly-candidates-ready-to-make-menendez-a-campaighn-issue/

Naturally so, especially the longtime pols who had no problem supporting Menendez in 2018. They're going to have a hard time pretending to be shocked by this indictment, but they'll try.

But the truth is also that Menendez has been a bit of a ghost in New Jersey for a long time. There's not going to be, for example, a lot of pictures of candidates shaking his hand or quotes of them vocally supporting him.

[Senator Incitatus]

Republican legislative candidates in competitive races are trying to tie their opponents to Menendez: https://newjerseyglobe.com/legislature/gop-senate-assembly-candidates-ready-to-make-menendez-a-campaighn-issue/

Naturally so, especially the longtime pols who had no problem supporting Menendez in 2018. They're going to have a hard time pretending to be shocked by this indictment, but they'll try.

But the truth is also that Menendez has been a bit of a ghost in New Jersey for a long time. There's not going to be, for example, a lot of pictures of candidates shaking his hand or quotes of them vocally supporting him.

And if he (hopefully) resigns soon, it'll just fade from relevance as the news cycle turns, except in the races when someone is actually hypothetically best buddies with the senator.

And to drill down this point, nearly all of these people are in safe districts in Hudson. The only competitive races I can see Menendez affecting significantly are the 4th and 38th (for purely speculative reasons), though that effect could actually be enough to swing a very close seat.