Anyone else find it nuts the forecast is seemingly changing every few hours? Like what is possibly changing in such little time
538 tweaking their model might be a factor.
As I recall from an explanation one of the 538 folks gave last cycle: what happens is that each model run does 40,000 simulations. What it displays is a representative 100 of the 40,000 outcomes -- but not necessarily the same set of 100 each time. So if the current probabilities are (for example) 50.6 R, 49.4 D, then sometimes it will show 50/50 and other times 51/49. This is why you can see those minor fluctuations even between runs of the model.
Smart if their goal is to boost clicks.
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