Senator Incitatus
AMB1996
Junior Chimp
Posts: 6,515
Political Matrix E: 2.06, S: 5.74
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« on: June 28, 2022, 10:04:58 PM » |
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Might also be worth noting what the top two candidates in the first round got, to get a sense of how much they'll need to consolidate their base in the general:
CA-09: Harder* (D) 37.8% — Patti (R) 28.6% CA-13: Duarte (R) 34.3% — Gray (D) 31.0% CA-22: Salas (D) 45.4% — Valadao* (R) 25.6% CA-27: Garcia* (R) 47.1% — Smith (D) 37.4% CA-41: Calvert* (R) 48.2% — Rollins (D) 30.5% CA-47: Porter* (D) 51.7% — Baugh (R) 30.9% CA-49: Levin* (D) 48.9% — Maryott (R) 19.0%
This is part of the reason I'd put CA-27 at Lean R and would consider moving CA-22 to TU, though the massive partisan differential (close to Brownley on the other side) makes that difficult. I also might put Levin at Likely D.
Since I'm on this line of thinking, three other incumbents (McClintock, Costa and Correa) got only plurality wins due to intra-party opposition, though I don't see them as vulnerable.
The Democratic-Democratic matchups, for anyone wondering:
CA-15: Mullin 41.1% — Canepa 24.1% CA-16: Eshoo* 47.9% — Kumar 15.6% CA-29: Cardenas* 56.7% — Dueñas 22.8% CA-30: Schiff* 62.5% — Pudlo/Girl 12.8% CA-34: Gomez* 50.7% — Kim 39.1% CA-37: Kamlager 43.7% — Perry 18.4%
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