Will Minnesota vote for a DFL governor this year

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Pawlenty has probably a 1-2% chance of winning. Here's why.

I had the pleasure of being elected as a delegate to the state Republican convention this year. I personally voted for Mary Giuliani-Stephens on the first ballot, but had to leave after the first ballot because I was graduating that day (telling that to my fellow delegates nearby, who on average were about 45-50, gave them a good chuckle). I thought that all the candidates there for Governor were great, however, and so did all the other delegates (besides a fellow who kept shouting during the votes and sat during Johnson's acclimation vote). It's important to remember who delegates are. We're the people who do the door-knocking, we're the donors, and we're the activists. If you close followers of this race recall, Tim Pawlenty refused to show up to the state convention because he didn't think he had enough time to shore up support from delegates. I can tell you firsthand that that's not what his problem was. At the convention for my congressional district, Tim Pawlenty walked in to a chorus of booing. After giving his speech, he had planned to stay for a short while, but actually got booed out of the convention. Delegates hate him. You can't win a statewide race without people campaigning for you (granted, he doesn't really need to worry about the money side of the delegation).

I personally am voting for Johnson, and I don't think the types of people who generally turn out for a midterm primary are going to be favorable of Pawlenty. The best chance Republicans have of winning this race is if it's Johnson vs. Swanson, in which case Johnson has probably a 25-30% chance of winning. Walz will win the general no matter what if he's nominated.