2011 Governor's Races in LA, MS, KY and WV (user search)
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  2011 Governor's Races in LA, MS, KY and WV (search mode)
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Author Topic: 2011 Governor's Races in LA, MS, KY and WV  (Read 24190 times)
Shilly
Jr. Member
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Posts: 590
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« on: October 03, 2011, 04:01:55 PM »

My prediction, Tomblin by 4.
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Shilly
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 590
United States


« Reply #1 on: October 04, 2011, 02:10:48 AM »

I sort of wish I'd been following this, but you have to make priorities about such things sometimes (sigh). Look forward to the maps anyway.

Oh, and wrt to any early vote statistics, there are certain patterns to look for in WV and they can sometimes be quite useful for predictive purposes.

And what pray tell are the patterns?  Which counties correlate with each other? Or is this a Sam Spade thingy?  Smiley

You basically need to see how solid Democratic turnout is in their various strongholds and whether Republican turnout is (relatively) good in the more populated areas (rather than their strongholds as such, if that makes sense). And also to see if there are any signs of funny surges of enthusiasm. You can then edit this for candidates. Tomblin will need relatively good (for a comedy turnout election) turnout in the southern coalfield counties, for example, because that's where he's known.
Here's a Google Doc I made hopefully containing the information you want. It compares the early voting turnouts of 2010 and this election. Also includes breakdowns by party.
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0AvZfL1pKJ0bKdHE3MDM5OVFRV0hrUnpSRVFFWlRHQ3c&hl=en_US#gid=0
Don't know enough about the state to read too much into the data, but maybe someone more knowledgeable can make sense of it all.
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