Will Nader run? will it matter?

[opebo]

Bush can win with a minority of the popular vote again even without Nader.

[opebo]

Bush can win with a minority of the popular vote again even without Nader.

CAN, but probably won't, it seldom happens.

However, given the bias of the electoral college towards low population states, and that these states are Bush's electoral strength, it is no freak of nature that a minority PV president was elected in 2000, and could easily happen again in 2004.

As discussed elsewhere, Bush won with only 47.87% of the PV. If he gained even 0.82% of the total vote, it would offset the combined Gore/Nader 2000 margin in FL and, all else held constant, re-elect him, even though he would trail the Dems in the PV 50.3% to 48.7%

If, as frequently suggested here, FL has become more conservative, he could conceivably pull out a win with even less of the PV.

I'd say its not only conceivable, its fairly likely.  As you said the electoral situations favors it, and Florida has drifted right.  Polarization - ideological, regional, and cultural - makes bigger percentage wins for Kerry in Dem states likely while not necessarily greatly increasing Bush's percentage in Republican bastions.  Net result - if he can hold FL and OH, he wins with even less than 47.8%.

[opebo]

Bush can win with a minority of the popular vote again even without Nader.

CAN, but probably won't, it seldom happens.

However, given the bias of the electoral college towards low population states, and that these states are Bush's electoral strength, it is no freak of nature that a minority PV president was elected in 2000, and could easily happen again in 2004.

As discussed elsewhere, Bush won with only 47.87% of the PV. If he gained even 0.82% of the total vote, it would offset the combined Gore/Nader 2000 margin in FL and, all else held constant, re-elect him, even though he would trail the Dems in the PV 50.3% to 48.7%

If, as frequently suggested here, FL has become more conservative, he could conceivably pull out a win with even less of the PV.

I'd say its not only conceivable, its fairly likely.  As you said the electoral situations favors it, and Florida has drifted right.  Polarization - ideological, regional, and cultural - makes bigger percentage wins for Kerry in Dem states likely while not necessarily greatly increasing Bush's percentage in Republican bastions.  Net result - if he can hold FL and OH, he wins with even less than 47.8%.

It often seems likely, but for some reason still seldom happens. I think it'll be the same this time, I doubt Bush will have the fluke of winning with 0.005% in a key state again...

Oh I agree that its unlikely any state will be quite as close as FL again, though we could have some like NM, IA, OR.  I just mean that the national popular vote percentage Bush gets may be lower and yet a win.

[opebo]

Firstly it looks like he’ll run “Politics 1” and “The Hedgehog Report” are both saying that it looks that way…

But he’s running as an independent and as such he’ll have to get his name on the ballots in other states by himself this time… without a firm organisation he seems doomed most Nader supporters are the liberal voters most angry with the Bush administration and while I am sure a few will plum for Nader again must will be solidly “ABB”… I would strongly doubt that Nader will get on the ballot in many states, raise much money or do even half as well as he did in 2000… the guy just seems to me to be a complete egotist… But then again I am a Dem and from my point of view he cost us the election…

Perhaps he's a Republican shill?  You know he's a millionaire.. a bit suspicious.