I hope people don't get caught up too much in these early polls. Conrad Burns and George Allen had similar leads during the last election cycle (in much more conservative states).
Burns had Jack Abramoff money trails leading back to him, and Allen's loss can be summed up in one word: "Macca." Coleman won't shoot himself in the foot so easily.
Agreed, Coleman is a much more competent and intelligent person than either Burns or Allen, but those races were in Montana and Virginia and still went Democrat! This is Minnesota for gosh sakes - Coleman's election in the first place was an odditty.